Rising Case Rates Are Fueling Rising Vaccination Rates
The free beer breweries in New Jersey offered didn’t work. Nor did the $100 saving bonds in West Virginia, the free tickets to Yankees and Mets games in New York or the $100 in cash Maryland put on the line. None of the sweeteners states and businesses offered to get the vaccine hesitant to step up and take their shots have seemed to change many minds. But something at last appears to be doing the job: fear.
As my colleague Chris Wilson reports, the surge in Delta variant cases across the U.S. may at last be scaring some vaccine holdouts straight. The numbers tell a convincing tale.
As recently as July 11, the daily number of Americans receiving a first dose of a vaccine stood at 7.5 per 10,000 people. Less than a month later, that figure has leapt to 14.8—or a 98% increase—closely tracking the worsening news about a summertime surge in Delta infections.
More striking, there appears to be a powerful local effect at work, with states that have the worst case rates leading the rush to vaccinate. In Louisiana, which currently has one of the highest national COVID-19 numbers, first-dose vaccinations—meaning only new participants in the rollout—are up a staggering 316%. In similarly hard-hit Arkansas it’s 231%; in Alabama and Florida, also reeling under growing case counts, it’s 220% and 167% respectively.
“What really amazed me was how consistently new vaccine rates take off right after the case rate surpasses 20 per 100,000 people,” says Chris. “The main question, in my mind, is how long it will last.”
While a few states don’t make a trend, a review of all 50 states and Washington, D.C. show early signs of similar patterns outside of the hard-hit South. “When you look at these same graphs across the country,” Chris adds, “you see similar effects in states like Kentucky and Georgia that still trail the national rate of vaccination but are seeing cases skyrocket.” If this pattern holds as more and more regions experience intolerable spikes in new cases, there is a good possibility that a bad situation could have a positive side effect.
About 407.6 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of yesterday afternoon, of which some 352 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 50.2% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
More than 203.3 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 4.3 million people have died. On August 9, there were 656,421 new cases and 8,600 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 3 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded nearly 36 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 617,300 people have died. On August 9, there were 184,346 new cases and 492 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Aug. 10, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Southeast Asiais turning away from Chinese-made vaccines in favor of Western alternatives, reports The Washington Post. The region, currently being ravaged by the Delta variant, had leaned heavily on the Sinovac and Sinopharm shots, despite the lack of comprehensive data on their efficacy, and appears to be paying the price as infection rates soar. For example, Thailand recently changed its vaccination policy so that people who have received one dose of Sinovac will now be receiving a second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Cambodia made a similar move last week, offering AstraZeneca shots to people who have received one or two doses of Sinovac.
Even as many vaccine-hesitant Americans continue to mistrust political leaders urging them to get vaccinated, a new poll by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that they retain a high level of trust in doctors, nurses and pharmacists, the AP reports. At least 70% of those polled say they trust health care workers to do the right thing some or all of the time, with wide agreement among men and women; white, Black and Hispanic Americans; and Democrats and Republicans. That trust, experts say, could be key to boosting vaccination rates among people who have still not gotten their shots.
The pandemic has apparently pushed more Americans to sign up for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, reports Reuters. After the Biden Administration extended the enrollment period in January, more than 2.5 million people have bought plans on the exchanges. Uninsured individuals and small businesses still have through Sunday to buy coverage. The American Rescue Plan, passed in March, also lowered the premiums people pay for plans obtained via the ACA, saving families an average of $40 per person per month, according to the White House.
India, which has passed the worst of its devastating second wave of COVID-19, is not prepared to face a third wave, which epidemiological models predict may be coming, according to Bloomberg . Up to two-thirds of India residents have been exposed to COVID-19 as of July, which should afford them at least some protection against infection, but that still leaves 400 million people with no antibodies to the virus. Making things worse, vaccine supplies have hit a bottleneck in India. The government has been dickering with Pfizer over indemnity clauses in vaccine sales contracts, and thus India has not received any of the 110 million doses the U.S. has sent to the developing world. Poor distribution of domestically made vaccines has also led Indian states to complain that they are not getting a sufficient supply of the shots.
Canada yesterday reopened its border to fully vaccinated Americans. As The Wall Street Journal reports, Canadian officials cited the relatively high vaccination rate among Americans and the fall in COVID-19 cases compared to a peak in April as reasons for the reopening. Also behind the decision was the hope to salvage at least part of the summer tourist season. Canada plans to extend its reopening to other countries sometime in September. The U.S. has not fully reciprocated, allowing Canadians to travel into the country by air but keeping the land border closed.
The year and a half the U.S. spent with learning done online appears to be permanently changing the way teachers themselves are taught, reports the Associated Press. Increasing numbers of teacher training programs are including remote learning, hybrid learning, and online technology in their curricula. Programs at Vanderbilt University, Ball State and elsewhere also use software that allows student teachers to record the lessons they have presented online and then analyze them with classmates and professors.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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