It's by now well established that the coronavirus vaccines offer remarkable protection against severe illness and death, even in the face of the Delta variant. They also largely prevent transmission—though not entirely. You probably know at least one person who's suffered a so-called "breakthrough case," meaning they were inoculated but tested positive anyway. Those suffering from breakthrough cases tend to have no or mild symptoms, though others have a rougher go. What's been less clear is how often breakthrough cases lead to Long COVID, a condition in which people continue suffering at least one symptom—and sometimes many more—for weeks and even months in some cases after being infected.
My colleague Jamie Ducharme, who's been doing an admirable job sharing the stories of those suffering from Long COVID, dug into that question for her latest story. The newest research, Jamie found, suggests that though cases among vaccinated people sometimes do lead to Long COVID, it seems to be rare. (As with all things related to breakthrough cases, research into their connection to Long COVID is complicated by the fact that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is only tracking those that result in severe illness.)
Here's Jamie:
One study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine in July, analyzed 39 fully vaccinated Israeli health care workers who had breakthrough infections. Almost 20% of them still had symptoms six weeks later. Though its sample size was small, the study demonstrated that Long COVID is possible after a breakthrough infection.
Another study, published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases in September, used self-reported symptom data from U.K. adults who tested positive for COVID-19 after being fully or partially vaccinated, as well as data from a control group of unvaccinated people who tested positive for the virus. They found that a fully vaccinated person who experienced a breakthrough infection was half as likely to have COVID-19 symptoms at least a month after diagnosis, compared to an unvaccinated person. That’s encouraging—but, again, the research showed that some vaccinated people are developing Long COVID.
Jamie found other indicators that breakthrough Long COVID is a threat worth taking seriously, too. A leader of a Long COVID support group with 11,000 members, for example, told her that about five vaccinated sufferers are reaching out every week.
Still, experts say the overall risk to fully vaccinated people is low enough that "Long COVID should not be a major driver of your decisions about what to do on a daily basis, if you are fully vaccinated,” as Dr. Megan Ranney, who co-leads Brown University School of Public Health’s Long COVID research initiative, told Jamie. On a macro level, experts say, the best thing we can do to eliminate the risk of breakthrough Long COVID is reducing transmission of the virus overall—including by getting vaccinated.
"From a policy level,” Ranney told Jamie, “the goal has to be reducing transmission. Period.”
About 472.6 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of yesterday afternoon, of which more than 391 million doses were administered, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 55.8% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
More than 233.2 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and nearly 4.8 million people have died. On September 29, there were 449,331 new cases and 8,748 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 4.5 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded more than 43.3 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 695,100 people have died. On September 29, there were 123,245 new cases and 2,529 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Sept. 30, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The number of U.S. coronavirus-related deaths is expected to drop in the coming weeks for the first time since June, per a new forecast from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily case numbers have already been falling for the last two weeks or so; deaths typically lag behind new infections by at least a couple weeks. While that's certainly good news, the country is still on pace to suffer at least 700,000 reported deaths by next week—a number that is almost certainly an undercount. Moreover, the forecast could be proven wrong if a new variant emerges or if an unforeseen spike takes hold as more Americans head indoors during the winter months.
The pandemic is currently killing rural Americans at more than twice the rate of their urban counterparts, according to a new analysis from the Rural Policy Research Institute. Metropolitan areas are reporting a seven-day average of 0.41 deaths per 100,000 people, while rural areas are reporting 0.85. That's a significant flip from early in the U.S. outbreak—in mid-April 2020, cities were reporting 0.69 deaths per 100,000 people, compared to 0.15 in rural areas. The divergence is likely happening at least in part because rural Americans tend to be older and less vaccinated than those in cities.
Initial unemployment claims in the U.S. rose to 362,000 last week, per Labor Department figures out today, up by 11,000 from the previous week. That's the third weekly uptick in a row, but still near the pandemic-era low, and temporary factors like fallout from Hurricane Ida likely played a role in suppressed hiring in that timeframe.
Even in Maine, which is highly vaccinated (68.4%) compared to the national average (55.8%), outbreaks largely among unvaccinated people are straining local hospital systems, the Wall Street Journal reports. "We’re getting some really catastrophically ill young people, and some are otherwise healthy people," the chief of critical-care services at the state's largest hospital told the newspaper. Across Maine, 71 COVID-19 patients are in critical care as of yesterday, down from a high of 88 earlier this month but still close to the state’s overall peak.
The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) is buying doses of China's Sinovac vaccine for use in Latin American and Caribbean countries, the international agency announced today. In a statement, the agency said the deal will help improve vaccination rates across those areas, where only 35% of residents are currently inoculated, though it didn't specify the number of doses that it's purchasing. PAHO expects to sign similar deals with other vaccine manufacturers "in the coming days."
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
