3 Reasons for Optimism, Even As the Numbers Seem Dark
I'm getting pretty tired of the phrase "another grim milestone," but, here we are: the U.S. passed another grim milestone on Friday, as its COVID-19 death toll crossed the 700,000 mark.
The news left me thinking about the early days of the outbreak—specifically, about one of my most vivid memories of the past two years: watching Trump Administration officials at a White House briefing point to models predicting anywhere from 100,000 to 2.2 million U.S. deaths over the course of the outbreak. A chart showing the latter prediction will be seared into my visual memory forever.
That range was so broad for a couple reasons: we didn't yet have a good scientific understanding of the virus's contagiousness and lethality, and it wasn't yet clear how well measures like social distancing and masking would work. As we now know, reality landed somewhere in the middle. The virus is deadly for some, and mild or even unnoticeable for others. Social distancing and masking work, but only if people actually practice them—which doesn't always happen. And while the vaccines arrived sooner than imagined and perform remarkably well, they too only work if people take part; so far, about 37% of Americans remain unvaccinated.
So as we head into our second pandemic autumn and winter, it's easy to feel glum about our prospects—especially because respiratory viruses tend to spread more widely in colder times, when people gather indoors to keep warm. Yet there are at least a few reasons for optimism right now. Here are three things I'm trying to keep in mind as the temperatures drop:
1) Cases are falling.
Across the U.S. as a whole, the 7-day average of daily new cases is down about 38% since its last peak of 172,532 on Sept. 13. Deaths, which lag behind cases in either direction, are beginning to fall as well.
To be sure, some states, like Alaska, are still suffering major outbreaks, and there are alarming upticks in some northern states. Still, the lower daily case numbers are before the colder months begin, the better positioned we'll be to get through the winter relatively unscathed. A recent forecast from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests cases could keep falling over the coming weeks. Of course, it's hard to predict whether people's behaviors might change in a way that leads to more spread, or whether a new variant could upend our progress.
2) The mandates are working.
The percentage of Americans getting their first dose has ticked up noticeability in recent days. In part, that's because people are afraid of the Delta variant, per this KFF research. But it's also tied to employer vaccine mandates or incentives, which have started to kick in across the country over the last few weeks. That's good news: the more people who are inoculated heading into the colder months, the better protected we'll all be from a winter surge.
3) New treatments are on the way.
While the vaccines have proven remarkably effective at keeping people out of the hospital, there hasn't been a ton of progress made on the treatment front—until now. Drugmaker Merck's antiviral pills cut hospitalizations and deaths by half, the company announced Friday, a potential gamechanger for those with severe COVID-19. Merck hasn't yet asked U.S. regulators to approve the drug, but it's expected to do so soon; if all goes well, it could be made available shortly.
If cases keep falling and vaccination keeps increasing, I hope you seize the opportunity to take part in something that you've missed over the last two years—if you feel safe doing so, of course. It's been a hell of a difficult time, and we owe ourselves something that brings us joy as a reward to ourselves for making it through this. Personally, I'm looking forward to trying some new things—there's a curling club near my new neighborhood, and that sounds like just the kind of low-stakes competitive fun I could use right now.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
More than 478.4 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this afternoon, of which nearly 397 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 56% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
More than 234.8 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 4.8 million people have died. On Oct. 3, there were 270,457 new cases and 3,791 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 4.5 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded more than 43.6 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 701,100 people have died. On Oct. 3, there were 25,215 new cases and 237 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Oct. 4, 2 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Johnson & Johnson is expected to ask U.S. regulators to authorize a booster shot for its one-dose coronavirus vaccine this week, the New York Times reports. While the J&J-Janssen shot was celebrated as an easier-to-administer vaccine compared to the two-dose varieties from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, ongoing research has shown that it confers slightly less protection than its counterparts. U.S. regulators recently authorized a booster shot for Pfizer recipients, but they have yet to greenlight additional doses for J&J or Moderna recipients.
New Zealand, which has been following a strict policy of "COVID Zero" since the pandemic started, is giving up on its quest to totally eradicate the virus, the Associated Press reports. The country will slowly lift lockdown measures over the coming weeks, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said in a statement this morning, even amid a relatively minor but ongoing outbreak in the country. Ardern framed the move as a step that's only possible because vaccines are increasingly available in her country, but it's also a tacit acknowledgement that COVID-19 will likely be among us permanently.
Leaders in Alaska have authorized emergency protocols allowing doctors at 20 hospitals to ration care amid a major spike in cases, the AP reports. Alaska set a new single-day case record of 1,317 on Sept. 27, and now accounts for more than 1% of all new U.S. cases, despite having just 0.22% of the country's population. Public health leaders there are begging residents to take measures to stop the spread to reduce the strain on local hospitals. "Every action you take helps prevent COVID-19 from spreading and protects you, your family, other Alaskans and our health care system,” Heidi Hedberg, director of the state Division of Public Health, told the AP.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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