It's the news nobody wanted to hear: a potentially dangerous "variant of concern" called Omicron is spreading around the world, threatening to extend a global pandemic that's already dragged on for two years.
Omicron, first discovered in South Africa but since detected in Europe, Asia and North America, is worrisome in large part because of the relatively high number of mutations in its spike protein, which is the viral component all the currently available vaccines and treatments target. It's too soon to tell whether said shots and drugs will be less effective against Omicron as a result, but scientists across the world are scrambling to answer that question. Meanwhile, countries everywhere are putting new travel restrictions in place in an effort to curb the variant's international spread.
Here are three key things to know about Omicron so far, largely drawn from my colleague Alice Park's excellent reporting over the weekend.
Why are people worried about Omicron?
Existing COVID-19 vaccines and drugs were designed to target the virus' spike protein, which plays a key role in the infection process. Existing COVID-19 vaccines and drugs were designed to target the virus' spike protein, which plays a key role in the infection process. They teach the body's immune system to fight off viral proteins and hopefully block the virus from infecting healthy cells.
But Omicron's spike protein has up to 30 mutations that differentiate it from the original form of the virus, leading some scientists to worry that it's so different that today's shots and drugs can't effectively target it. And even if the existing vaccines work well against Omicron, if it winds up being more transmissive or deadlier than previous versions, it could wreak Delta-level havoc in under-vaccinated areas. However, scientists do not yet know enough about the Omicron variant to say whether that is the case.
What are global leaders and scientists doing in response?
Countries around the world are restricting travel from areas with known Omicron outbreaks. But such moves can only slow viral spread, not totally prevent it. Indeed, it's likely that Omicron is already in places where it hasn't yet been positively identified, like the U.S.—viruses always have a head start against efforts to contain them, and often cross borders before their threat is fully understood.
But such moves could buy time for scientists and researchers, who are already hard at work analyzing Omicron and rejiggering the vaccines to target it. That two of the most effective and most-used vaccines are based on mRNA technology is a blessing here, since the platform makes the shots easy to tweak on the fly, requiring just weeks of work to be reconfigured against a new variant. However, the modified versions must then be tested, a process that can take a few months. So don't expect Omicron-specific vaccines or boosters until the first quarter of next year, at the earliest.
Should I be freaking out?
In this writer's opinion, opt for measured concern. At this point, there's not enough data to know whether Omicron is a major threat or not; other variants of concern have petered out without causing a Delta-style nightmare. And there are reasons for optimism: while hospitalizations in South Africa are up, fewer people are severely sick compared to past surges, per the country's public health officials. The key question—whether currently authorized vaccines work well against Omicron—remains unanswered, and indeed unanswerable until scientists have had more data, which requires more time.
Still, it's probably a good time to buckle down on your defenses. Get your booster shot, if you haven't yet—while we're not yet sure how the boosters interact with Omicron, it's smarter to bet that they offer some additional protection rather than none at all. Reconsider your behaviors: maybe it's time to stop engaging in some of the riskier indoors stuff you've been doing in the last few weeks, for example. And pay close attention to the latest data and news as you make your holiday plans, because there's a chance that it may once again be wise to avoid a big gathering. None of this is easy—I, personally, am finally getting sick of avoiding things I usually love, like concerts and sports—but erring on the side of caution until more data are in is the prudent move.
More than 572.1 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of yesterday afternoon, of which more than 454.4 million doses have been administered, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 59.1% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
Nearly 261.5 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 12 a.m. E.T. today, and nearly 5.2 million people have died. On Nov. 28, there were 422,051 new cases and 4,447 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 5 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded more than 48.2 million coronavirus cases as of 12 a.m. E.T. today. More than 776,600 people have died. On Nov. 28, there were 28,131 new cases and 103 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
However, it's important to keep in mind that the recent dip is likely due to reduced reporting during the holiday weekend; historically, the U.S. has seen similar short-term, apparent drop offs that were later shown to be outliers.
That said, here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Nov. 29, 12 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
U.S. President Joe Biden doesn't expect more travel restrictions or lockdowns as a result of the Omicron variant, he said in an address today—provided people follow public health guidance. "If people are vaccinated and wear their masks, there won’t be a need for a lockdown,” he said. Biden also advised Americans to get their booster shots, adding that he would direct the country's public health agencies to approve any Omicron-specific boosters as quickly as possible while also ensuring safety.
As the Omicron variant spreads around the world, World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called today for the creation of a new international council where global heads of state could coordinate future pandemic responses for maximum impact. "A convention, agreement or other international instrument will not solve every problem," he said in a speech to the World Health Assembly. "But it will provide the overarching framework to foster greater international cooperation, and provide a platform for strengthening global health security."
A South African biotech firm called Afrigen is attempting to replicate Moderna's mRNA COVID-19 shot without the original recipe, the Washington Post reports. While the World Health Organization and other outside experts are assisting the company, Moderna itself is refusing to participate, citing intellectual property concerns. Moderna has pledged to build a vaccine-manufacturing plant in Africa, but critics say any such effort will come far too late to help the region secure enough doses to inoculate enough people to curb viral spread and reduce the potential for mutations like Omicron.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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