All week long, there’s been a ping-pong match in my head. On one side are my comforts as Omicron spreads, namely that I’m vaccinated and boosted and so are most of my loved ones. But on the other side are my worries. Positivity rates are spiking in New York City, where I live. Breakthrough cases are seemingly everywhere, and the holidays are just around the corner.
Paralyzed by confusion and indecision, I recently asked risk-taking and decision-making researchers, as well as public-health experts and infectious-disease doctors, about how to calculate risk in this phase of the pandemic. My thinking has evolved even in the three days since the story was published, as Omicron has demonstrated its fierce ability to spread among both vaccinated and unvaccinated people in New York. Still, here are some expert takeaways that helped me:
Not all risks are made equal. Considering what is “worth” a risk can help make difficult decisions. How would you feel if you were exposed to the virus at the gym versus a close friend’s wedding?
Personal risk matters, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. As a healthy, boosted young adult, I’m in a different position than someone who is unvaccinated, older, immunocompromised or medically vulnerable. But that’s not a free pass, as individual decisions can have collective consequences. For example, I canceled upcoming dinner plans with friends less out of personal fear, and more because I hope to see my grandparents next week for the holidays and want to keep them safe.
Watch the trends. Case counts are an important way to track the virus’ prevalence in your area, but hospitalization rates can tell you more about how the health care system is functioning. (More on that here.)
Use all the tools available to you. We’re in a better place than we were in 2020, no matter how scary this moment feels. We have vaccines, which everyone who is eligible should get ASAP, as well as other tools. You can take rapid tests before a gathering, wear a good mask inside, shift plans outside when possible and make informed decisions about what to do based on the data in your area.
With all that said, hardly any decisions right now are clear-cut, and Omicron is changing the risk calculus for many people. But, as one human behavior researcher told me, we’ve evolved to be able to make difficult decisions—even when they feel impossible.
More than 272.9 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 12 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 5.3 million people have died. On Dec. 16, there were 706,550 new cases and 6,376 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 5 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded more than 50.5 million coronavirus cases as of 12 a.m. E.T. today. More than 803,600 people have died. On Dec. 16, there were 138,881 new cases and 1,141 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Dec. 17, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now recommends getting an mRNA vaccine over Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose shot. That suggestion comes after the CDC’s advisory committee met yesterday to discuss rare but serious blood clotting associated with the J&J shot. Between that uncommon but possible side effect and the superior efficacy of mRNA shots made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, the CDC is now recommending against J&J. However, the shot will continue to be offered to those who want it, and CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky emphasized that any vaccine is better than none.
Pfizer is tweaking the design of its vaccine study for children younger than 5, after two kid-sized doses failed to spark an adequate immune response among 2-, 3- and 4-year-olds, the Washington Post reports. The company will now test the addition of a third dose at least two months after the second. A Pfizer official said the setback is “not anticipated to meaningfully change our expectations that we would file for emergency use authorization and conditional approvals in the second quarter of 2022,” but it’s likely to be a disappointment to parents of children too young to be vaccinated.
New York City plans to distribute 500,000 at-home tests and 1 million face masks as Omicron surges there, officials said yesterday. Public testing centers will also stay open seven days a week. The city is now averaging almost 3,000 new infections per day and test positivity rates are spiking, prompting some businesses, colleges and Broadway shows to temporarily close down in a potential harbinger of what’s to come for other areas.
South Africa is reporting far fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations during its Omicron wave compared to its previous Delta outbreak, Bloomberg reports. Despite high case counts, less than 2% of people found to have COVID-19 during the second week of the Omicron outbreak were admitted to the hospital, compared to almost 20% at the same point in the Delta wave. That may be in part because South Africa has a young population with high levels of prior immunity, but it provides cautious optimism for other countries battling Omicron.
Researchers from Hong Kong University have a theory about why Omicron is so contagious: the new variant seems to collect at high concentrations in the airways, which suggests it’s better at spreading by air. So far, the team’s research has only been published via press release, which is a big caveat, as STAT reports. But the research may reignite a battle between aerosol scientists and public-health bodies like the World Health Organization, which many experts argue has downplayed the risk of airborne transmission throughout the pandemic.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Angela Haupt.
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