What You Need to Know About a Possible 4th Vaccine Dose
The pandemic has been a foot race from the start, with the virus emerging, spreading, and mutating as the world tried to stay ahead of it by masking up, locking down, and, most important, developing vaccines. That last step—a shot against the virus—was seen by many as the victory flag. But things have not been so simple. Immunity wanes over the course of months, and the need for a booster soon became evident. Now, as we enter the third year of the pandemic, there is increasing talk about the possibility of a fourth dose of the vaccines—a sort of booster for the booster.
As my colleague Alice Park reports, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show that from Aug. 2021 to Jan. 2022, protection against hospitalization following a third dose of an mRNA vaccine fell from 91% in the first two months after the shot to 78% two months later—or a total of four months after the booster. Efficacy against emergency room and urgent care visits declined similarly, from 87% to 66%.
“We don’t know when you get to six months, seven months, or eight months after the third dose whether that 78% is going to go down to 60%, 50%, or 40%,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House’s chief medical advisor on COVID-19 and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Alice. “For that reason, you are going to hear serious consideration for giving a fourth boost to the elderly and those with certain underlying health conditions.” Just today, Pfizer-BioNTech announced that it plans to ask the federal government, as early as tomorrow, for emergency use authorization for a second booster for people over 65.
But beyond those in high-risk groups, there is wide disagreement about whether a fourth dose is necessary or even desirable, given the risk of vaccine side effects like inflammation of heart tissue. Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center and professor of pediatrics at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, told Alice that we’ve gotten “hung up using the word ‘breakthrough’ in describing mild illness” that occurs in some people who become infected even after a booster. That very mildness, he says, is a sign that “the vaccine was working for you and protected you from serious illness.”
The goal, Offit and others say, is not to vaccinate away any risk of illness, but to keep people out of hospitals. And that, says Fauci, is the real metric to watch. If hospitalizations among the boosted rise, “it’s entirely conceivable that given the fact that we have waning immunity, we may need a regular boost at intervals yet to be determined.”
Read more here.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
More than 459.8 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 12 a.m. E.T. today, and over 6 million people have died. On March 14, there were more than 1.7 million new cases and 1,550 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending, in terms of cases:
And in terms of deaths:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 6 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded more than 79.5 million coronavirus cases as of 12 a.m. E.T. today. More than 965,000 people have died. On March 14, there were 39,024 new cases and zero new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
(While states reported 1,150 new deaths from COVID-19, a revision in how Massachusetts's Department of Health counts virus-related fatalities led to reduction in total deaths of 3,770 between Sunday and Monday, causing a one-day net negative growth in the nation.)
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending in terms of cases:
And in terms of deaths:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Mar. 15, 12 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
China is facing disruptions in trade as efforts to control even small outbreaks of COVID-19 lead to limited operation at some ports, reports the Associated Press. Face-to-face contact with sailors and ship operators has been forbidden, and document transfers that usually take place on site have been moved online, causing headaches for shippers. The moves come at a bad time for China, as the world economy is already suffering from weaker demand and higher oil prices due to the war in Ukraine.
Life insurance companies in the U.S. have experienced a boom as fears of COVID-19 prompt a surge in sales, reports the Wall Street Journal. The number of policies issued in 2021 rose 5% compared with 2020, the biggest year-over-year increase since the 1980s. While insurance companies are still tallying total new policies sold, the figure is expected to top 10 million for 2021, according to industry sources. The average size of the policies purchased also increased.
More than a third of recent wastewater samples across the U.S. showed a rise in circulating SARS-CoV-2, according to an analysis of CDC data that was conducted by Bloomberg. The data cover the period from March 1 to March 10. It’s not yet clear if the rise in sewage-borne virus is a harbinger of a new wave of COVID-19 cases, or if it’s simply a result of greater viral transmission—some of it asymptomatically—as mask rules are relaxed and more people return to their workplaces.
The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has hit travelers with more than $640,000 in fines over the past six months for refusal to wear face masks, according to a TSA report issued yesterday. That represents a dramatic increase overa report from February to September of last year when only $2,350 in fines were imposed on a total of just 10 travelers. The mask mandates—along with the fines—are expected to end on April 18, according to a ruling by the Biden Administration, though similar deadlines have been extended in the past.
Up to 16 million Americans could lose Medicaid insurance coverage when the state of COVID-19 emergency, first imposed as part of a relief measure passed by Congress in March 2020, comes to an end, reports the Washington Post. The power to end the emergency status lies with the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which was authorized by Congress to renew the state of emergency every 90 days since the law was passed. President Joe Biden has not announced when the HHS will cease the renewals.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and edited by Angela Haupt.
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