Right now, the situation in the U.S. is confusing. More than 1,300 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed—relatively low compared to hard-hit countries like Italy and Iran—but experts predict the figures are very likely to spike soon as the disease spreads and health authorities improve testing capabilities. How bad will it get? Well, data provided to TIME exclusively by the Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems at Northeastern University, and crunched for the first time by TIME’s director of data journalism Chris Wilson, show that more than 1 million Americans may be at risk of infection.
“What we’re seeing now is really just the tip of the iceberg,” says Alessandro Vespignani, the director of the Northeastern lab, who worked on the research.
TIME took five potential public-health surveillance and intervention scenarios modelled by Northeastern, and used them to project how many U.S. residents are likely to develop COVID-19 from now until April 30. Of course, it’s still impossible to know exactly how much COVID-19 will spread in the coming weeks—there’s too much we still don’t know about the underlying virus—but the forecasts are useful to understand the scale of the potential impact this outbreak might have in the U.S. Read more here.
TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
A day after declaring COVID-19 a “pandemic,” Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, said Thursday that the outbreak is a “controllable pandemic.” However, he also noted that the number of cases reported outside China over the last two weeks has increased almost 13-fold and the number of affected countries has almost tripled. “Despite our frequent warnings, we are deeply concerned that some countries are not approaching this threat with the level of political commitment needed to control it,” Tedros said.
Here are all the countries reporting at least one case of COVID-19:
In Iran and across Europe, several high profile politicians have been diagnosed with COVID-19; experts say this may be because politicians come into contact with others more than the average person. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau isn’t taking any chances after his wife experienced flu-like symptoms and has quarantined himself at home. Princess Cruises, the cruise line that operates two ships that saw significant coronavirus outbreaks in the past months, is suspending its global operations through early May; one of its cruise ships was quarantined in Japan last month. The stock market continues to fluctuate wildly.
All numbers are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of March 11, 8 PM eastern time.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Why Wearing a Face Mask Is Encouraged in Asia, but Shunned in the U.S.
In the U.S., wearing a face mask when healthy has become discouraged to the point of becoming socially unacceptable, while wearing a mask is standard in many Asian countries. It’s partly due to differences in cultural norms. Read more here.
A Historian of Epidemics and Quarantine Shares What It’s Like to Be Quarantined in Italy
Eugenia Tognotti is a scholar of historical epidemics, like the plague, cholera and Spanish flu. Now, she’s isolated in her home in Sardinia as Italy quarantines the entire country. Read more here.
Wedding Jitters in the Age of COVID-19
TIME reporter Tara Law spoke to a number of couples currently reevaluating or adjusting their plans to tie the knot amid the COVID-19 pandemic, given that public health officials are recommending that large gatherings be postponed or cancelled. Read more here.
Coronavirus Shreds the Campaign Playbook
Sen. Bernie Sanders and Vice President Joe Biden have canceled multiple campaign events because of COVID-19. That means no chats with voters, no signatures and handshakes, no soaring optics of a cheering crowd greeting the presumptive Democratic nominee as he prepares to battle Donald Trump. Read more here.
Why Does Trump Want to Frame COVID-19 as a “Foreign Virus?”
Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. is in line with a familiar strategy of his: blaming foreigners. Read more here.
The Chinese Internet Called Out Trump For His European Travel Ban
“Trump said it is just flu, yet he bans traveling,” wrote one Chinese internet user. “What is he afraid of?” Read more here.
Why Freaking Out Over The Coronavirus May Be Totally Rational
COVID-19 anxieties have cleared shelves of hand sanitizer, rocked the stock market and disrupted travel plans in the U.S., which has only had coronavirus deaths in a few states. But there’s a logic behind some of the panic. Read more here.
Coronavirus May Disproportionately Hurt the Poor—And That’s Bad for Everyone
Experts have recommended that people avoid large crowds, stockpile shelf-stable foods in case they end up quarantined, stay home from work and contact a doctor if they are ill. But a lot of low-income people can’t afford to follow that advice. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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