Why Germany’s Case Count is So High, But It’s Death Toll is So Low
As of the latest official counts, Germany has more COVID-19 cases than all but four countries. It has so far diagnosed well over 60,000 cases, according to data by Johns Hopkins University. Yet, its case mortality rate (the number of people who have died compared to the number diagnosed) is only 0.9%. By comparison, Italy’s is 11%, and the U.S.’s is 1.8%. As of Monday afternoon, 560 people have died of COVID-19 in Germany. Obviously 500 people dying is a tragedy, but by comparison, more than 2,600 people have died in neighboring France, where roughly 40,700 people have been diagnosed.
That success probably boils down to rapid testing, writes TIME reporter Billy Perrigo. “The more cases you ascertain, the death rate is going to go down,” says Dr. Liam Smeeth, a professor of clinical epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. And Germany has been testing at a relatively fast pace. (Smeeth spoke to Perrigo while himself possibly suffering from COVID-19. “I’ve been researching this damn particle while I’m almost certainly suffering from it,” Smeeth said to Perrigo. “Maybe it knows. It’s come to get me, the bastard.”)
Germany was one of the first countries to develop a reliable test, Perrigo reports, and has mass produced it. Meanwhile, countries like the U.S., which early on in the pandemic experienced delays and flaws in its rollout of testing, have to prioritize testing only the people who are experiencing symptoms or have a note from a doctor.
One caveat: Germany is still in the early phase of the pandemic, and so the low fatality rate may not last. But at the least we can say that Germany shows that almost certainly, testing early and often can save lives.
The U.S. now has more confirmed cases of COVID-19 than any other country by a significant margin, according to official reported numbers; as of Sunday night, it is the only country with over 100,000 reported cases, with by far the biggest cluster in New York.
President Donald Trump announced Sunday evening that social distancing guidelines that were set to expire today will be extended until April 30. Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the nation’s top infectious diseases experts and member of the president’s Coronavirus Taskforce, said earlier on Sunday that some models predict the death toll in the U.S. could reach up to 200,000. On Monday morning, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, affirmed those numbers, adding that “if we do things almost perfectly,” the U.S. will still likely see some 200,000 deaths.
It was that data that led to Trump’s decision to extend the social distancing guidelines, Fauci told CNN Monday morning, and added that the taskforce “argued strongly with the president” to extend the guidelines an additional 30 days, “and he did listen,” Fauci said. “We made it very clear to him that if we pulled back on what we were doing and didn’t extend [the guidelines], there would be more avoidable suffering and avoidable death.”
Additionally, Fauci explained Monday morning that regions of the country with small case counts are especially vulnerable. “Those are timbers that can turn into big fires,” he told CNN’s John Berman.
The Global Situation
Total global case numbers jumped some 200,000 over the weekend, passing 720,000 by Sunday night. Deaths related to the virus rose about 1,000 in the same time frame.
Here’s every country with over 5,000 confirmed cases, as of Sunday night at 8 PM eastern time:
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) and Japanese officials announced Monday morning that the Tokyo Olympic games are now planned to begin on July 23, 2021. Japan has seen an uptick in COVID-19 cases since the IOC announcement that the games would be postponed, causing speculation among some that Japanese officials had not been honest about the country’s outbreak. Japan’s Health Minister Katsunobu Kato has denied there is any correlation.
Meanwhile, Iranian state media reported more prison riots occurred on Monday. The country has been hard hit by the pandemic, and prison riots have been frequent since the start of the year, the Associated Press reports, citing state media. Iran had temporarily released around 100,000 prisoners in an effort to contain the outbreak, according to the AP, and has kept about 50,000 behind bars.
All numbers are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of March 29, 8 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Young Doctors in Italy Rise to the Challenge
Still fresh from med school, these young doctors are on the frontlines battling COVID-19 in Italy alongside their peers with many more years experience. Read more here.
Can the Pandemic Change Relations Between the U.S. and Iran?
COVID-19 is spreading fast in both the U.S. and Iran. But well before the outbreak, tensions over nuclear power were high between both nations. So does the COVID-19 pandemic change anything? TIME reporters Kimberly Dozier and John Walcott break it down. Read more here.
It’s Hard to Think About, But It’s Time to Get Serious About End-of-Life Care
COVID-19 death counts are not just statistics. People are grieving for their lost loved ones all over the world. As the death toll continues to increase, we need to get serious about end-of-life care for our loved ones, write Dr. Jessica Gold and Dr. Shoshana Ungerleider for TIME. Read more here.
U.K. Women Will Be Able to Access Abortion Pills From Home
The U.K. has announced a change in policy that will allow women to take abortion pills at home. In non-pandemic times, the first of the two pills was required to be taken at a clinic. Read more here.
Honk to Say ‘Amen’
Social distancing has required many people to get creative about how they’ll keep up some of the normal routines of their lives. For some groups, that means driving to church and sitting in a car during service while a pastor speaks from a scissor lift. Read more here.
Christianity Offers No Answers About the Coronavirus
N. T. Wright, professor of New Testament and early Christianity at the University of St Andrews, explores the many questions Christians might have about COVID-19. Is there a religious explanation for this pandemic? Read more here.
TIME for Kids is Digital and Free for the Rest of the School Year
This is a demanding time for parents and teachers, and for that reason TIME for Kids is offering access to four grade-specific digital editions of its library—a tool to help children understand what is happening around them. Oh, and it’s free for the rest of the school year. Read more here.
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