As COVID-19 continues to spread rapidly across the U.S.—which has now reported more cases than any other country—state-level data highlight great disparities in the degree to which the virus appears to have spread in different states.
TIME analyzed the per capita spread of the epidemic in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. Overall—at least for now—the U.S. lags behind South Korea and Italy in its attempts to flatten the curve. The total new daily COVID-19 cases in Italy have finally started to shrink. But the results of state-level analysis in the U.S. show a wide spectrum in the rate of contagion and states’ progress in flattening the curve.
Some patterns are unsurprising. New York and New Jersey have the first and second highest per capita rates of infection, respectively; both are densely populated with populations heavily concentrated in urban areas. But California, the 11th densest state, is doing better than the country as a whole, suggesting its early implementation of social distancing measures were at least somewhat effective.
So, how might this data be useful? Chris Wilson, director of data journalism at TIME, says experts can compare different states’ approaches and “learn valuable information about what can be done to bend the curve.” Although federalism in the U.S. has led to a complicated patchwork of regulations, it could also help find a solution to the COVID-19 pandemic, Wilson says. “You also have 51 different experiments going on and that’s not a bad sample size when it comes to trying to figure out what works,” he explains. “I would estimate that in two weeks we will be able to make stronger hypotheses about the relationship between the policies and the numbers.”
The coronavirus continues to spread globally; as of last night, there were over 930,000 cases worldwide and over 46,000 deaths worldwide.
The World Health Organization said yesterday that the past five weeks have seen “near exponential growth in the number of new COVID-19 cases, reaching almost every country, territory and area.”
“The number of deaths has more than doubled in the past week,” said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, at a media briefing on Wednesday. “In the next few days we will reach 1 million confirmed COVID-19 cases, and 50,000 deaths.”
Here is every country with over 5,000 confirmed cases, as of Wednesday night, 8 PM eastern time:
Today, the Chinese government pushed back on reported accusations from the U.S. intelligence community that Beijing concealed just how bad its coronavirus outbreak was by under-reporting case and death counts. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that China’s response was “open and transparent” and that “some U.S. officials just want to shift the blame,” according to Bloomberg.
In the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson is being widely criticized for not following through on the British government’s pledge to significantly ramp up testing in the country. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin has told most residents to refrain from working until the end of April, joining many other world leaders who have advised their population to do the same.
Carbon emissions are down as the world is on pause. But that’s not actually cause for celebration. Those working to fight the harmful effects of climate change may have to put some efforts on hold as the United Nations’ international climate summit is being postponed. The British government says the meeting, which was supposed to be in Glasgow in November, will now be held in 2021.
Although COVID-19 affects more than just older people, seniors continue to face an increased risk. More than 95% of people who died from coronavirus in Europe have been over 60, according to the WHO.
The Situation in the U.S.
Unemployment numbers in the U.S. continue to look dire. More than 6.6 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, a record for the country. What’s clear: A lot of people are getting laid off. What’s not: when they may start going back to work. The Trump administration announced today that it is funneling about $3 billion to help shelter and provide testing for the homeless in what is supposed to be the beginning of aid relief to help the homeless community.
The COVID-19 death toll in New York state, which has reported the most coronavirus cases and deaths in the U.S. by far, doubled in 72 hours. New York is now reporting some 84,000 COVID-19 cases and 2,200 deaths. And the impacts are not being felt equally by its citizens: New data indicates that more residents in New York City’s low-income neighborhoods have tested positive for the virus compared to wealthy, mostly white parts of the city.
Some U.S. Navy sailors are stranded at sea. Luckily, not for much longer, authorities indicate. Nearly 3,000 sailors on a U.S. aircraft carrier where the coronavirus has spread should be off the ship by Friday, Navy officials said Wednesday, according to the Associated Press.
Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee announced today that it will postpone its presidential nominating convention until the week of Aug. 17.
All numbers are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of April 1, 8 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
About That Rent Check. Can the U.S. Government Help?
As unemployment numbers in the U.S. soar, many Americans are struggling to pay rent. So far, the Trump administration has offered only a limited safety net, primarily to homeowners instead of renters, and state legislatures are scrambling to pass protections of their own. Read more here.
The U.S.’s COVID-19 Stimulus Package Might Not Help With Your Loan
The CARES Act, which has been signed into U.S. law, only helps some borrowers. It suspended monthly payments and interest accrual on most student loans held by the federal government through September 30, 2020. But for millions of people with student loans from private lenders, the legislation brings no relief. Read more here.
Ten Tips From ‘Mars’ for Quarantined Earthlings
Sheyna Gifford, who spent a full year in lockdown with five other people on a simulated Mars base on the flank of Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, dishes out some wisdom on what to do when you’re stuck inside. Read more here.
Passengers on Virus-Stricken Cruise Ships Worry They May Be Stranded at Sea ‘Indefinitely’
TIME reporter Madeleine Carlisle spoke with a New Jersey couple on the stranded cruise ship MS Zaandam, which is scrambling to find ways to get passengers home. Multiple South American countries have rejected the vessel’s request to dock. “It’s been a rollercoaster…are we able to dock? Are we not?” Wendy de Pinho says. Read more here.
Law Enforcement Officers in the U.S. Are Figuring Out How to Keep Themselves and the Public Safe
Employees of police departments and sheriffs’ offices are increasingly being used to impose social distancing and shelter-in-place measures in ways that make it hard for personnel to practice them. Officers are trying to strike a balance between protecting civilians and protecting themselves. Read more here.
You Probably Read About an Uninsured Teen Who Died of COVID-19. The Truth Is More Complicated
Last week, the story of a teenager in California who appeared to have died from COVID-19 after being turned away from an urgent care clinic because he didn’t have health insurance was widely read on social media and news outlets. TIME reporter Abigail Abrams reported out the more complicated truth. Read more here.
A Drug Developed to Fight Ebola Could Hold Hope for Coronavirus Treatment
The drug favipiravir, suggested by some experts to be helpful against Ebola, could also be of some use in responding to the new coronavirus. Read more here.
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