The U.S. Has Flattened the Curve. Next Up Is ‘Squashing’ It
If the COVID-19 pandemic were a play, Act One would be when the first few cases were diagnosed, and Act Four would be when new, daily cases are in decline. Right now, we’re only in Act Three, says Chris Wilson, director of data journalism at TIME—the part of the story where the U.S. flattens the curve. “Act Three is a great step,” Wilson says. “But it’s not the final act.” The next step, Act Four, would be the “squashing” of the curve, when we see fewer new cases each day. That squashing will vary depending on how different states react, and most states are not there yet.
Wilson recently analyzed state-by-state data and created an interactive chart that shows where each of the 50 states and Washington, D.C., are in the squashing process. There are essentially 51 varieties of crisis, Wilson says, and so looking at data state-by-state can help readers understand why restaurants are opening in one state, but still shut down in another.
If restrictions loosen too quickly, states risk entering an Act Five of this play, an uptick in cases that results in the curve flatlining again rather than continuing downward. “This opening scene in Act Five is not ideal, but worse would be to return to a spike, as has occurred in several states. Take, for example, Tennessee,” Wilson writes.
In its Act Five, Tennessee has essentially regressed to Act Two, where new cases grow exponentially. “It remains to be seen how Act Five plays out for the country at large,” Wilson writes.
More than 2.9 million people worldwide had been infected with COVID-19 as of 8 PM eastern time yesterday, and more than 206,000 had died.
Here is every country with over 30,000 confirmed cases:
The last 12 hospitalized COVID-19 patients have been discharged in Wuhan. The city where it all began now has zero hospitalized patients with the virus for the first time, though there are still roughly 1,700 people under medical observation according to the Associated Press, citing the Hubei province health commission.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is back to work today after recovering from the coronavirus. He addressed the public this morning for the first time since his recovery and urged the British people to maintain social distancing and lockdown measures. “I want to get this economy moving as fast as I can,” he said. “But I refuse to throw away all the effort and the sacrifice of the British people… And I ask you to contain your impatience because I believe we’re coming now to the end of the first phase of this conflict.”
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced yesterday evening that there is no widespread community transmission happening in the country. “We have won that battle,” Ardern said during a press briefing. Only one case of the virus was confirmed yesterday. The announcement came hours before New Zealand began the easing of some lockdown restrictions.
Meanwhile, more than 700 Iranians have died as a result of drinking toxic methanol, incorrectly believed to be a cure for the coronavirus, according to health officials cited by the AP.
The Situation in the United States
More than 965,000 people in the U.S. had contracted COVID-19 as of 8 PM eastern time yesterday, and more than 54,000 had died from it.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said today that his state would be taking a regional approach to reopening. Currently, the state-wide “pause” in normal activity is set to expire on May 15, but Cuomo said it will be extended in “many parts of the state.” Deaths in New York State have been on the decline. There were 337 deaths yesterday, “Still tragically high, but on the decline if you look at it over the past few days,” Cuomo said.
After some back and forth, the White House announced there will be a press briefing after all later today. The announcement comes after Axios reported on Friday that President Donald Trump would begin to reduce the frequency of the briefings. Today’s briefing had previously been canceled.
Bill Gates spoke to CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday about some states easing social distancing and lock-down measures. “The problem with the United States is that unless you interdict travel, any state that goes too far and gets into that exponential growth [in COVID-19 cases] will be seeding other parts of the country,” Gates said. He added that parts of the U.S. could successfully reopen its economy if the country could aggressively test for the virus and contact trace.
Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun told shareholders today that air travel could take two or three years to return to normal, CNBC reports. Despite that, U.S. stocks rose today as some parts of the country and the world began reopening.
All numbers are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of April 26, 8 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
A Message From
China's Economic Data Takeaways
Goldman Sachs Chief Asia Economist Andrew Tilton discusses China's economic contraction and what its recovery may signal for the rest of the world in this episode of The Daily Check-In
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