Even though one in 24 United States residents has already contracted COVID-19, some people still don’t know anyone who’s gotten it. That’s because the virus hasn’t struck Americans at random. It has hit harder in certain geographic areas, and disproportionately affected minority and low-income communities—who for historically racist reasons have less equitable access to health care and are less likely to be able to do their jobs from home, among other factors.
But the virus situation has changed in recent weeks. No one, and nowhere, in the U.S. is safe from COVID-19 now. And if you don't know anyone who's been infected, chances are you will soon.
My colleague Chris Wilson has been keeping a close eye on the average number of new cases across the country since March. “In mapping county-level data, I had noticed, just anecdotally, that there were many ‘COVID deserts,’ even when the national picture was bleak,” he says. “And whenever data journalists hear ‘anecdotally,’ we immediately think, ‘I bet I could measure that.’”
In his new analysis, Chris explains the strange trend he saw at first—and how it’s changed recently. “The first thing I found was that, until very recently, there were locations—typically small, rural counties—that had yet to report a single case of the virus,” he says. “There were, on any given day, dozens or hundreds of counties with zero new cases in the past week.”
But ever since early October, that figure has shrunk to a handful. “Measuring the distance from these deserts to places with active cases was a really interesting way to quantify the expanse of the ‘safe havens,’” he says.
As the numbers continue to climb in the coming months, you’ll become statistically more likely to know more people who have been infected with COVID-19. “Which is not to say that we’re all doomed—only that we’ll all have to continually recalibrate our degree of caution," Chris says. Until recently, he felt comfortable dining at restaurants with smart masking rules, distanced tables and good air circulation, for example, but he wouldn’t consider it today. As bah-humbuggy as it sounds, “we’d probably all be wise to keep our physical social networks small for a few months,” he adds—especially with the holidays just around the corner.
Living through the COVID-19 pandemic is hard. TIME's new advice column is here to help, with expert-guided answers to your most pressing coronavirus questions. Need help breaking the news that you won't be home for the holidays? Deciding if that dinner party is safe to attend? Fighting through your quarantine fatigue? Our health reporters will consult experts who can help find a safe and practical solution. Send us your pandemic dilemmas at covidquestions@time.com.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
Editor’s note: Because of holiday-related delays, COVID-19 data is likely to be a little strange over the next few days. For that reason, we’re temporarily removing the typical maps and charts from The Coronavirus Brief, but we’re still including the numbers as reported.
The Global Situation
More than 63.8 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.4 million people have died. On Dec. 1, there were 602,219 new cases and 12,014 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here is every country with over 900,000 confirmed cases:
A COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech gained emergency use authorization in the U.K. today, making it the first in the West to get the green light. The U.K. has ordered 40 million doses of the vaccine, and rollout will begin next week; frontline health care workers and nursing home residents will receive the shots first.
Eight members of Pakistan's national cricket team tested positive shortly after arriving in New Zealand for matches later this month, the New York Timesreports. Team members were caught on video violating quarantine requirements, hanging out and eating together instead of staying in their rooms. Officials in New Zealand, which successfully controlled the virus after enforcement of strict coronavirus policies, say that the latest team member to test positive was the country’s only new case today; New Zealand's Ministry of Health has given the team an official warning.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 13.7 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 270,000 people have died. On Dec. 1, there were 180,083 new cases and 2,597 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
While the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) still advises a 14-day quarantine after a person is exposed to COVID-19 (assuming they don't have a confirmed infection or illness), it now offers two slightly riskier but acceptable alternatives, the Washington Postreports. Option A is quarantining for 10 days if you don’t develop symptoms, while option B is quarantining for seven days if you don’t develop symptoms and test negative at some point in the last two days. Quarantining for two weeks was found to be so mentally, financially and logistically burdensome that many people haven’t complied; the hope is that people will be more likely to stick to the less-stringent timeline.
Once a COVID-19 vaccine is approved in the U.S., frontline health care workers and elderly long-term care residents should be the first to receive it, an advisory panel for the CDC recommended yesterday. Giving these groups priority access will allow the vaccine to have its greatest impact, as health care workers will be able to continue caring for sick patients, and elderly people in facilities—the most vulnerable to severe COVID-19—will be more protected. The first 6.4 million doses are anticipated to be released within days of Food and Drug Administration authorization.
President Donald Trump's lack of empathy about the coronavirus was a big reason why he didn’t win re-election, Brad Parscale, Trump's former campaign manager and adviser who left the President’s team in September, said in an interview yesterday with Fox News’ Martha MacCallum. "A young family with a young child who was scared to take them back to school wanted to see an empathetic president and an empathetic Republican Party," Parscale said. "I've said this multiple times, and he chose a different path. I don't think anything's wrong with this, I love him, but we had a difference on this. I thought we should have public empathy. I think people were scared."
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Dec. 2, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Remembering Honestie Hodges, Who Died of COVID-19 At Age 14
Honestie Hodges tested positive for COVID-19 on her 14th birthday, and died less than two weeks later. In her short life, the Michigan teen had already encountered plenty of trauma; when she was 11, police handcuffed and briefly detained her, sparking public outrage and a new rule requiring police to use less force with young people, called the Honestie Policy. Read more here.
The Unanswerable Questions of COVID-19 Vaccines
While we've had plenty of good vaccine news lately, STAT’s Helen Branswell reminds us that the rollout process still comes with plenty of question marks, unknowns and missing information. Will any of the vaccines be safe for pregnant women and children? (There are literally no data.) When a vaccine gets approved, but others are still being studied, is it ethical to keep giving people placebos? (It’s iffy.) Getting answers to these questions and others is critical, she writes. Read more here.
'The Next Three Months Are Going To Be Just Horrible'
Two dozen pandemic experts have this advice for Americans for the next few months: Buckle up. Donald G. McNeil Jr. of the New York Times traces how we got here and polled experts about what we can expect; despite hope for vaccines and a new administration that takes the virus seriously, their predictions weren’t rosy. Read more here.
How to Teach Kids During The Pandemic
Ensuring that kids continue to get an education has been one of the toughest parts of the pandemic. Politico analyzed how districts across the country decided to tackle education, with an eye towards what worked and what didn't. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Mandy Oaklander and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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