Based on medical trials and real-world data, we know that the COVID-19 vaccines authorized for use in the United States are safe and highly effective. But for the roughly half of Americans (and hundreds of millions of people around the world) inoculated so far, a couple big, unanswered questions remain: will we need booster shots, and if so, when?
Those have been difficult questions to answer, in part because time travel hasn't been invented yet. The first study participants to receive the vaccines got their shots just over a year ago, meaning limited long-term efficacy data are available. So far, much of that data suggest that, yes, those who have been vaccinated will need a booster shot, perhaps fairly soon. "I think as we get into the fall, we're going to have to look at giving, especially the vulnerable population, boosters," former U.S. Food and Drug Administration boss Dr. Scott Gottlieb said on CNBC earlier this month; other experts generally share a similar view.
However, a study published in the journal Nature this morning points to a different conclusion: the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, both of which are based on mRNA technology, may protect recipients against the coronavirus for years.
In the study, researchers extracted samples of lymph fluid from 14 Pfizer vaccine recipients several times over the course of nearly four months. They found that specialized immune cells were still being trained to fight off the coronavirus 15 weeks after inoculation. That process usually ends about a month after vaccination, one of the study's authors told the New York Times, suggesting that the mRNA vaccines provide long-lasting protection. (The study didn't look at the Janssen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine.)
While this study is promising, it's far from the end of the booster discussion. The virus that causes COVID-19 is already mutating—you've probably heard of the Delta and Delta Plus variants—and while the current vaccines seem mostly effective against the current variants, a new version may yet emerge that more successfully evades existing inoculations. Meanwhile, public health officials may take a cautious route and advise that people who are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, like the elderly and those with certain pre-existing conditions, get a booster just to be safe. Personally, I'm mentally preparing to get a booster this fall along with my flu shot to help my body fight off both viruses as winter sets in.
VACCINE TRACKER
About 381.2 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to U.S. states as of this morning, of which some 323.3 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 45.7% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
More than 181 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 3.9 million people have died. On June 27, there were 309,453 new cases and 5,948 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 3 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded more than 33.6 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. Nearly 604,000 people have died. On June 27, there were 3,484 new cases and 75 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of June 28, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
As you can see in the above map and on TIME's tracker,a number of U.S. states are beginning to report alarming upticks in cases. The problem is particularly pronounced among states where vaccination rates remain relatively low. For example, fewer than 41% of people in Nevada, Missouri and Arkansas are fully vaccinated, and those states are showing early signs of potential spikes. Deaths remain low, but they have historically lagged behind cases.
Australia has long been celebrated for keeping the coronavirus at bay, in part through tight border controls and strict lockdown measures—the country of 25 million people has reported just over 30,000 cases and fewer than 1,000 deaths. But a new outbreak fueled by the more transmissible Delta variant has triggered yet another two-week lockdown in the capital city of Sydney and elsewhere, leaving some Australians fed up with the country's strategy, CNN reports. Part of the problem: Australia's vaccination rate remains relatively low—less than 5% of residents have been fully inoculated so far—meaning lockdowns are still the best way to curb viral spread, despite their drag on the country's morale.
CoronaVac, a Chinese-made coronavirus vaccine, is safe and effective in children aged 3-17, according to Phase 1/2 results published in The Lancet today. The authors say the results, which involved about 550 children, warrant an expanded Phase 3 trial. CoronaVac and other Chinese-made vaccines are unlikely to be used in the U.S. (in part because they have lower efficacy levels than the shots in use here), but are playing a key role in global vaccination efforts.
A coronavirus epidemic may have swept across East Asia around 20,000 years ago, according to fascinating new research examining the effect of that outbreak on the human genome. The research, published in Current Biology and reported on by The New York Times, may unlock genetic clues to fighting off coronaviruses. It also suggests that such pathogens can spread for years absent vaccination—a critical reminder as inoculation efforts flag across the world.
In the Philippines, a country of more than 108 million people, less than 6% of the population has received even a single dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, despite daily new caseloads of up to 7,000 in recent months. In part, Aie Balagtas See reports for TIME from Manilla, the problem is one of "medical populism"—a term coined to "convey how public health crises are vulnerable to authoritarian figures who belittle threats, pooh-pooh scientific data and proffer improvised solutions." In the case of the Philippines, that figure is President Rodrigo Duterte, a strongman who, like his counterparts in Brazil, India and elsewhere, has been criticized for failing to take the virus seriously.
The boss is back in his office: Bruce Springsteen returned to his Broadway residency this weekend, heralding the reopening of New York's theater scene. "It's good to see everyone here tonight unmasked, sitting next to each other," Springsteen said, per the Associated Press. "What a year. I'm 71 years on this planet and I've never seen anything like it." Audience members were required to show proof of vaccination to attend; a small group of anti-vaccination protestors gathered outside the St. James Theatre ahead of the show.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Jamie Ducharme.
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