As long as there are pathogens and hosts there will be outbreaks of disease. The best human beings can do is learn from previous experience—studying what went right or wrong in one pandemic and applying that wisdom to the next.
In an effort to do just that, TIME’s science and health team—led for this project by my colleague Emily Barone, with guidance from the University of Washington Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness—polled 73 experts in public health, infectious disease, immunology, hospital administration, data and technology, environment and climate, and more. TIME sent each a list of about 50 initiatives that could mitigate the next health crisis and asked them to score each strategy’s priority and feasibility on a scale of 1 to 5.
When it came to priority, experts put bolstering vaccine research and manufacturing at the top of the list, followed by improving systems that track and alert the world to new diseases. What’s more, both these proposals also scored highly on feasibility, meaning experts saw few barriers to implementation—indeed, the current pandemic stands as proof of that, Dr. Seth Berkley, CEO of GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, reminded TIME, as he analyzed the results of the survey. “When it came to COVID-19 … the scientific and vaccine manufacturing community rallied, producing the first safe and effective vaccine in record time—just 327 days.”
Similarly, Dr. Julie Gerberding, former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and another analyst who weighed in on the survey results, was struck by the power of disease surveillance during the current crisis. “Experts agree that a robust system for detecting emerging infections on a global basis is now technologically feasible,” she said, “ if we figure out coordinated planning and appropriate investment in modern data analytics and molecular diagnostics.”
Other initiatives that experts also ranked as essential look tougher to accomplish. Ranked as high priority but less feasible were expanding health care access, distributing vaccines fairly and other strategies addressing inequalities that have exacerbated COVID-19’s toll on vulnerable populations. That will take local action. “Individual governments can take matters into their own hands. First, they must get their own shops in order,” says Dr. Leana Wen, former Health Commissioner of Baltimore. “They need to rigorously evaluate their country’s pandemic response and make necessary investments to the local public health infrastructure.”
None of these insights will, by themselves, prevent the next pandemic. But all may make us better prepared to face it down.
About 372.5 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this afternoon, of which 304.7 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 42.5% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
In a study published today in Nature , investigators report that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is effective against multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants. Serum drawn from people who had received two doses of the vaccine neutralized the B.1.617.2 variant, first identified in India, as well as several other variants, including B.1.525, first identified in Nigeria. The vaccine worked better against some variants than others, but, the authors write, it appears likely to confer “adequate protection” against all of the strains.
Moderna today requested emergency use authorization for its vaccine in adolescents aged 12 to 18 years, according to an announcement by the company. Moderna reports that the efficacy of the vaccine in 2,500 adolescents in Phase 2-3 trials was found to be 100%. The move comes on the same day the U.S. Food and Drug Administration planned to meet to consider what guidelines it should use to determine if vaccines should be approved for use in that age group, reports CNN. Among the questions the FDA will consider will be how many children are enrolled in the trials and how much safety data it will require from the manufacturer before the vaccine gets the green light. As of this writing, the FDA had issued no rulings or conclusions.
The White House announced today that the United States will purchase 500 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine at a “not for profit price” and donate them to 92 low- and middle-income countries. The Administration’s goal is to deliver 200 million of the doses by the end of 2021 and the remainder by June 2022. The half billion doses are on top of the 80 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine the U.S. plans to donate by the end of this month.
Welcome as the U.S. vaccine donation plan is, health officials in Asia have their concerns, reports the Associated Press. Chief among them is the need for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to be stored at super-cold temperatures, requiring equipment that is rare in many poorer nations. It’s for that reason that much of the developing world has opted for the AstraZeneca vaccine, which can be kept at higher temperatures. Jaehun Jung, a professor of preventive medicine at South Korea’s Gachon University, has called on Pfizer and U.S. officials to help provide the freezers necessary to preserve the shots, as well as to educate local health care workers in proper storage and administration of the vaccines.
The European Union has decided not to exercise its purchase option of 100 million doses of the Janssen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine after concerns arose about a rare blood-clotting disorder that has been associated with the shot, reports Reuters. The E.U. also cited supply problems as a reason for its decision: the drugmaker had agreed to deliver 55 million doses to Europe by the end of this month, but so far has shipped just 12 million and is not on track to meet its deadline.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 174.4 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 3.7 million people have died. On June 9, there were 420,967 new cases and 10,420 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 3 million confirmed cases:
U.S. President Joe Biden gave a boost to the idea of waiving patent protections on vaccines when he spoke in favor of the idea last month, but the move may hit a wall in Europe, reports the Associated Press. As the G7 meeting gathers in the U.K. this week, the German government has restated its resistance to such a move. Germany could face pushback from the World Trade Organization, where, as STAT reports, formal talks have now begun about patent restriction waivers. The WTO is hoping to reach a decision by the time of a meeting of its general council on July 21 and 22.
Travel restrictions between the U.S. and the U.K. could be eased soon, reports CNN, with President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Boris Johnson set to take up the matter this week during the G7 meetings. The two governments plan to establish a “travel task force” that will set benchmarks for lifting the restrictions safely.
With the Olympics fast approaching, Japan is at last accelerating its vaccination efforts, according to Reuters. Only this weekend will the main vaccination center in Tokyo begin offering shots to people under 65; previously only front-line health care workers and the elderly were eligible. The government is standing by its target of vaccinating anyone who wants a shot by October/November—well after the summer Olympics—a goal that will require the administration of about one million vaccines per day.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 33.4 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. Nearly 599,000 people have died. On June 9, there were 20,779 new cases and 432 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
Seattle has taken the crown as the most vaccinated city in the U.S., reports The Washington Post . Yesterday, Mayor Jenny A. Durkan announced that 70% of all Seattle residents over the age of 12 are fully vaccinated, reaching the threshold many health experts believe is sufficient for herd immunity. About 78% of Seattleites have received at least one shot. Yesterday’s announcement moved Seattle ahead of San Francisco, in which 68% of residents are fully vaccinated.
The right of employers to demand that workers be vaccinated is getting a test this week in Houston, as 178 unvaccinated staffers at Houston Methodist Hospital were suspended yesterday, reports NBC. A lawsuit on behalf of 117 unvaccinated employees had been filed at the end of May in anticipation of possible suspensions, arguing that the COVID-19 vaccines are experimental and that workers are being unfairly coerced to take them. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission last month ruled that federal guidelines permit employers to require vaccinations. But the EEOC phrasing also specifically states that employers may offer employees incentives to be vaccinated “as long as the incentives are not coercive,” which directly echoes the Houston Methodist workers’ claims.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of June 10, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Canada Locks its Doors
Even as case counts go down and vaccination rates rise, Canada continues to keep its border with the U.S. closed to all but essential travel, “cutting off families, would-be tourists, and billions of dollars in commerce,” reports Russell Berman in The Atlantic. Part of the reason: a springtime spike in COVID-19 cases north of the border. Read more here.
An Upside to the Lockdowns?
Some people may find that their time in quarantine was a learning experience, writes Eve Peyser in New York Magazine. She even has a term for the experience: post-traumatic growth. Read more here.
A COVID-19 Valedictory
After 33 years as a “disease detective,” the CDC’s principal deputy director Anne Schuchat is retiring. She writes in The New York Times about what the pandemic has taught her about the need for upgrades in the U.S. public health system. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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