Another Grim Milestone As Exponential Growth Continues
The wildfire that is COVID-19 continues to rage, crossing a grim line last night, when the global case count passed the 20 million mark.
Much like an actual wildfire, the pandemic has been more destructive in some places than others. The United States continues to lead in total cases, having crossed its own milestone of 5 million on August 9. Brazil comes next with 3 million, followed by India at 2.2 million, Russia at 895,000, and South Africa at 560,000. The global death toll has surpassed 737,000, led again by the U.S., at over 163,000. But overall, it’s humanity as a whole that’s suffering. The outbreak that began in Wuhan, China in December 2019 has now spread to 188 countries and regions, touching every continent but Antartica.
Among the top 20 countries—a list which also includes Mexico, Peru, Spain, the United Kingdom and Pakistan—there are some small but encouraging signs. Five-day moving averages are trending down in 11 of those hard-hit spots, with the U.S. among those showing some faint improvement (the remaining nine have all seen cases rise over the same period).
In some isolated spots, things are brighter still. New Zealand had gone over 100 days without a single case of community transmission, though a very small handful of cases just popped up. Rwanda—where testing is so readily available that pedestrians, bicyclists and even motorists are routinely stopped and asked if they want to be screened—has recorded only 1,500 cases since March despite being home to 12 million people, around the same as Ohio, where about 1,200 new cases are now being reported per day.
"I know many of you are grieving, and that this is a difficult moment for the world," said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director-General of the World health Organization, in a briefing with reporters today. "But I want to be clear: There are green shoots of hope and no matter where a country, a region, a city or a town is—it is never too late to turn the outbreak around."
As with all pandemics, the spread is accelerating rapidly. It took from December until April before one million cases were recorded worldwide. It was less than seven weeks before that figure quintupled to 5 million cases, on May 20. The 10 million milestone was reached just over five weeks later, on June 28. On August 6, the world hit 19 million cases—and now it's 20 million. Looked at another way, it took nearly four months for the first million cases to be recorded, but just four days to record the most recent million. At the current global rate, the 21 million mark will be reached before the weekend.
Slowing that trend depends on all of those 188 countries and regions doing their part to control their infection rate. But the majority of the responsibility lies with the big hardest-hit countries to flatten their curves. Within the U.S., the burden falls especially on the “big three” states—Texas, California and Florida, which together represent more than 40% of new domestic cases over the past 14 days—to put their coronavirus genie back in the bottle.
More than 20 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 7 AM eastern time today, and more than 736,000 people have died.
Here is every country with over 250,000 confirmed cases:
New Zealand’s spotless record—102 days without a single new infection—came to an end today , after four cases were discovered in a single Auckland household. To prevent further spread, the city is moving to “alert level 3” through Friday. Outsiders will be banned from visiting, residents will be urged to stay home, and bars and restaurants will be closed. “These three days will give us time to assess the situation, gather information, make sure we have widespread contact tracing so we can find out more about how this case arose and make decisions about how to respond to it once we have further information,” New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said at a press conference.
National prestige ought not have anything to do with COVID-19 vaccine development, but it’s undeniable that the U.S., China, the U.K., Russia and other countries racing to develop one would not mind the bragging rights that come with being first. Today, Russia claimed those rights, announcing that it has approved a vaccine, that it provides immunity for up to two years, and that mass production will begin in September with mass immunization to follow in October. But there are plenty of skeptics. The Russian vaccine has not gone through Phase 3 human trials, which involve testing for safety and efficacy on a large sample group. What’s more, Russian scientists have not yet published their results from phase 1 and 2.
In Africa, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may turn out to be a lethal force multiplier for another virus that already afflicts the region: HIV/AIDS. Up to 500,000 additional AIDS deaths could ultimately be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Associated Press reports. Part of that is biology: immunocompromised people are simply more susceptible to viral infections. What’s more, lockdowns and quarantines have disrupted the supply chain for critical antiretroviral medications that make HIV/AIDS a chronic but survivable condition. And with the coronavirus at large, some people are afraid to visit crowded health clinics for fear of contracting the disease.
One more tragic milestone was crossed today when Brazil recorded its 100,000th death from the virus. As the BBC reports, it took three months for the pandemic to claim 50,000 Brazilian lives, but only 50 more days for that figure to double. Blame for the country’s exploding caseload and death toll continues to be laid at the feet of its president, Jair Bolsonaro—who himself contracted the disease—for focusing less on controlling the pandemic than on reopening the economy.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded more than 5 million coronavirus cases as of 7 AM eastern time today. More than 163,000 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On August 10, there were more than 49,000 new cases and 525 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
In the wake of findings published yesterday by the American Academy of Pediatrics showing that more than 97,000 children tested positive for the virus in the last two weeks of July, there was still more bad news, also from the AAP: Between July 9 and August 6, pediatric coronavirus infections rose 90%, from 200,000 to 380,000. In Florida, the numbers have been especially troubling, increasing a stunning 137%. Nationwide, childhood cases have risen from just 2% of all infections in April to 9.1% now. Children typically show milder symptoms than adults and represent a relatively small share of total cases, but these data will only complicate the work of officials deciding whether and how to reopen schools in the fall.
The White House is considering a move that would bar U.S. citizens and legal residents from returning to the country from Mexico if they are suspected of being infected with the novel coronavirus, according to both the New York Times and the Washington Post. Mexico is the sixth hardest-hit country in the world, with nearly 486,000 cases and more than 53,000 deaths. The language of the proposed rule is reportedly broad, permitting the government to forbid reentry if it “reasonably believes that the individual either may have been exposed to or is infected with the communicable disease.” If enacted, such a rule would almost definitely face legal challenges.
A mostly maskless, decidedly non-socially-distant motorcycle rally in Sturgis, S.D. is rolling on, midway through its August 7 to 16 run. While there are hand sanitizing stations and posted reminders about social distancing, there is little sign that the estimated 250,000 attendees are giving much thought to the pandemic. During a Smash Mouth concert at the event, one member exhorted the crowd with a cry of “F**k that COVID s**t!” The rally attendees seemed of like mind. "I've been here since the beginning of July," one told CBS News. "People are tired of being at home, you know. This is what this rally started about is freedom."
Add one more pandemic-era economic casualty to the growing list: New York City’s iconic yellow cab industry. Already hammered by Uber and other ride-hailing services, drivers have seen demand collapse, and riders have seen supply dwindle, with the number of licensed cabs on the road plummeting from 11,435 in January to a low of 2,193 during the height of the city’s lockdown in April. The numbers have failed to bounce back significantly, and cabbies are feeling the pinch. One hard-hit driver told NY1 he has seen his income fall from $700 for a nine-hour shift to just $50. “Very dark situation. Very, very dark situation,” said another. The fate of the industry likely depends on the return of tourism and theatergoers—neither of which are likely to happen soon.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of August 10, 1 AM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The TSA Is Finding More Guns in the COVID Era
The Transportation Security Administration intercepted three times as many guns in carry-on bags this July compared to last—with 15.1 million firearms spotted now compared to 5 million then. This comes despite the fact that air travel is off as much as 75%. It’s at least possible that for an unknown reason, people who choose to travel now are simply more likely to carry guns. But the likelier explanation is also the simpler one: With fewer travelers to screen, TSA accuracy has improved. Read more here.
Britain May Bar Travel From France
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is threatening to add France to the government’s list of countries whose residents are forbidden to travel to the U.K. as cases on the south side of the English Channel continue to rise, jumping 33% in France over the past week. One travel industry expert in the U.K. describes France as being “on a cliff edge as far as a U.K. [quarantine] decision is concerned.” Read more here.
A Dangerous Trade-Off for Drug Manufacturing
U.S. President Donald Trump’s Aug. 6 executive order encouraging the federal government to buy more American-made medicines could be self-defeating, as it invites both the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to loosen manufacturing and environmental restrictions in an attempt to improve speed and efficiency. The possible result: trading poorly manufactured or dangerous drugs from overseas for poorly manufactured and dangerous ones made in the U.S. Read more here.
Oh Say Can You See Anyone?
With at least 66 National Football League players opting out of the 2020 season over coronavirus concerns and the league still undecided on how many—if any—fans will be permitted to attend games, one decision seems clear: You can say goodbye to the National Anthem and any marching bands inside the stadium, in order to limit the number of people on the field who may have contact with players. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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