The same saga has played out all over the world: A country shuts down due to COVID-19. It reopens too early. New infections crop up. Experts scramble to readjust.
Right now, Europe has a starring role in that unfortunate story. France, Germany, Iceland, Luxembourg, Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands are all watching cases tick upward, stoking fears of a second wave. Resurgences hardly ever boil down to a single factor, but in many Western European countries, reopening too soon seems largely to blame, reports TIME’s Billy Perrigo. In Spain, for example, cases began to rise after the country partially reopened its borders, and in France, Switzerland and Spain, public health experts have traced clusters to recently reopened bars and nightclubs.
These trends are forcing national leaders to make difficult decisions about whether to retreat or forge ahead with reopening. Many are avoiding the blunt—and economically disastrous—tactic of total lockdowns, and instead relying on more targeted measures like city-level shutdowns and business closures, Perrigo reports. Contact tracing will likely also play an important role; the countries that have done the best job locating and isolating possible cases have avoided major resurgences. Surveillance has helped Italy maintain one of the EU's lowest per capita daily case rates, even after becoming a hotspot this spring, for example.
“Governments are quite confident that their new strategy of swooping in on localized outbreaks can succeed in containing the virus,” Perrigo says. “But localized restrictions only work when the virus is rare. If it becomes more widespread again, leaders might have to abandon their current strategy for a new one.”
All eyes will be on Europe as it tries to avoid a full-on second wave. Whether the continent turns into an admirable example or a cautionary tale remains to be seen.
More than 19 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 7 AM eastern time today, and more than 714,000 people have died.
Here is every country with over 250,000 confirmed cases:
Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), yesterday asked U.S. President Donald Trump to reconsider his decision to withdraw from the organization. “The problem is not about the money. It’s not the financing that’s the issue. It’s actually the relationship with the U.S. that’s more important and its leadership abroad,” Tedros told NBC News’ Lester Holt.
Africa’s confirmed coronavirus toll has surpassed 1 million—but global health experts fear the actual number is much higher, and cases are simply not being caught due to inadequate testing. Still, many African nations have successfully joined forces to gather tests and supplies, and to deploy contact tracers.
Meanwhile, India has become the third country—after the U.S. and Brazil—to record 2 million cases of COVID-19. It recorded its second millionth case just 20 days after crossing the 1 million mark, faster than either of its predecessors.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded more than 4.8 million coronavirus cases as of 7 AM eastern time today. More than 160,000 people have died.
On August 6, there were 59,692 new cases and 1,250 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
The U.S. economy gained 1.8 million jobs in July, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released today. That’s far fewer than the 4.8 million added in June, and barely enough to make a dent in the nearly 13 million jobs lost as a result of the pandemic. The unemployment rate is still above 10%, a dismal sign of how far the economy still has to go. Furthermore, the unemployment rate for Black Americans remains particularly high compared to other groups; it dipped only slightly from 15.4% in June to 14.6% in July.
Meanwhile, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced his long-awaited decision about school reopening today. Schools across the state will be allowed to resume in-person learning this fall, as long they’re in an area where the average proportion of coronavirus tests coming back positive is lower than 5%. (Most parts of the state, including New York City—home to the country’s biggest school district—currently have a positivity rate below 1%.) Local leaders will make decisions about specific schools and districts; some public-health experts fear that opening schools will inevitably result in more spread.
The Trump Administration yesterday lifted its blanket international travel advisory, following the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s decision to ease travel warnings for about 20 countries around the world at low risk of coronavirus outbreaks. The State Department still has numerous country-specific travel advisories in place, however, and many countries are turning away American visitors.
The WHO said yesterday that most COVID-19 cases are now among people 64 and younger, with an increasing proportion of cases appearing in young adults, teenagers and children. Better testing and detection of mild cases partially explains the demographic shift, but "a rise in risky behavior after easing of public health and social measures" is also to blame, CNN reports.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of August 7, 1 AM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
What the 1918 Flu Can Teach Us About Racial Disparity
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Black Americans have been far more likely than white Americans to get sick and die from coronavirus—so TIME’s Emily Barone was surprised to find historical data suggesting the opposite was true during the 1918 influenza pandemic. That counterintuitive finding can teach us about the current moment, she reports. Read more here.
Where Hong Kong Went Wrong In Postponing Its Election
Countries all over the world are grappling with how to hold an election during a pandemic. But when Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam announced on July 31 that legislative elections would be delayed by a year, it was met with strong opposition. TIME’s Laignee Barron explains Lam’s crucial misstep. Read more here.
The U.S. Still Doesn’t Have Enough Contact Tracers
Only four U.S. states and Washington, D.C., currently have enough contact tracers to investigate their local coronavirus cases, according to an NPR analysis. That’s a problem for pandemic response. Read more here.
‘I Got COVID In March and Never Got Better’
Writing for Autostraddle, Heather Hogan viscerally describes the plight of the people who, like her, have been waiting for months to recover from COVID-19—with no relief in sight. Read more here.
There May Not Be Enough Vaccines to Go Around
A new Wall Street Journal story puts a damper on optimistic estimates that a coronavirus vaccine may be ready this year. Even if there is a vaccine soon, there probably won’t be enough doses to cover U.S. health care workers, let alone the wider public. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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