Why You Should Be Wary of News Suggesting that COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. are Stabilizing
July was devastating in the U.S. After the country had appeared to flatten the curve in late spring, daily new cases of COVID-19 skyrocketed as the season turned, peaking at 20.5 per 100,000 people on July 18, according to data gathered by Johns Hopkins University (JHU). After some hemming and hawing, many local officials of states seeing resurgences reinstated some of the restrictions, meant to limit the spread of the virus, which had previously been lifted. On the face of it, these decisions seemed to have paid off: Though the U.S. hit 5 million total confirmed cases today, it took longer (17 days) to go from 4 million to 5 million than it did (15 days) to go from 3 million to 4 million. And in the past two weeks, the per-capita daily case rate in the U.S. has fallen by three—equal to a drop of about 11,500 new daily cases.
The reality, however, might not be so rosy. That’s because in that same time frame, testing for COVID-19 in the U.S. has also fallen at practically the same rate. Two weeks ago, about 820,000 new tests were being administered per day, according to the COVID Tracking Project. By Aug. 6, that had dropped to about 710,000:
As U.S. President Donald Trump gears up for the 2020 election cycle, he’s been keen to minimize the impact of COVID-19 under his watch, largely by latching on to any data or talking point that suggests the epidemic has been overblown by those he sees as his political enemies. His favorite: the only reason U.S. case numbers are up is because the country is testing more.
Here’s the thing: if more tests reveal more cases, that, on its own, does not mean a problem doesn’t exist. What would be needed to prove that is a trend showing that as we test more people, the share of positive tests fall. And yet, this has not been the reality at all. In fact, over the past two months, when testing rates increased, so did positive-result rates. And when testing rates fell…so did positive-result rates:
This is a bit complicated, but it’s important, so stay with me here. Most experts who have been watching the pandemic since the start believe that early on, we did not understand the full scale of the spread of the virus—because we were only testing those who got sick. But now we know that many people can contract the virus, show no symptoms whatsoever, then pass it on. When there’s a robust and accessible testing system, even these asymptomatic cases will be found and added to the numbers. But, as soon as testing becomes inaccessible again—which seems to be happening in the U.S. right now—we’re back to where we were before: probably missing cases left and right.
As fall approaches, those in charge at every level—from elected federal officials responsible for the lives of millions to parents responsible for the lives of one or two—are going to have to make nearly impossible decisions about how to live in a post-pandemic, pre-vaccine world. Increased testing in the U.S. will be essential if we want these decisions to be even partially informed.
That might mean, as Dr. Ashish K. Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, has suggested, adding cheaper and more rapid types of testing to the overall mix (even if these types are less accurate than the expensive and tedious kinds). It might mean some use of "pooled testing," which takes genetic samples from a bunch of people, combines them into a sort of mega-sample, which is what gets sent to testing. And given the Trump Administration’s clear disdain for testing—and resulting abdication of responsibility for maintaining a robust testing system—it might mean governors and mayors really stepping up on this issue, as the leaders of Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio and Virginia (three Democrat and three Republican) did last week when they banded together to buy three million tests.
It’s likely too early to tell for certain whether the U.S. is truly stabilizing, as the surface numbers appear to suggest. But declaring victory now, at a moment when many people can’t get tests or face nearly two-week delays for results is like turning off the lights and claiming you eradicated a cockroach infestation.
OVER THE WEEKEND
Trump Took Matters Into His Own Hands
Congress failed again last week to come to an agreement on a new stimulus package, with Democrats reportedly willing to lower spending demands to $2.4 trillion from $3.4 trillion, and Republicans sticking to their $1 trillion proposal. So, on Saturday, President Trump called a press conference from his New Jersey golf resort, and announced that he would bypass Congress.
Trump blamed the opposition party for his dramatic step: “If Democrats continue to hold this critical relief hostage, I will act under my authority as President to get Americans the relief they need,” he said. One of the biggest sticking points in the negotiations has been unemployment aid. There were some 30 million Americans on unemployment aid who had been receiving an extra $600 a week through the end of May. Democrats want the $600 to continue; Republicans proposed a $200 unemployment bonus moving forward; in one of four executive orders the President signed, according to the New York Times, Trump's executive order calls for $400—with $300 coming from the federal government and $100 from states.
Another of the executive orders delays payroll tax collection for those making under $104,000 a year; a third defers student loan payments (though both will have to be paid in the future); the last is a fairly vague memorandum on evictions, stating that federal policy will be to minimize evictions during the pandemic, and calls on the Department of Health to “consider” an eviction ban.
It’s not entirely clear whether Trump has any authority to enact this plan; in fact, the President himself said his Administration would likely be sued. In an interview with ABC earlier today, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said that “the President’s executive orders, described in one word, could be paltry; in three words, unworkable, weak and far too narrow."
Worrying Trends in Europe Continued
All around western Europe, there are signs of resurgence of COVID-19. For example, Greece, once held up as a surprising success story, on Saturday had over 150 new daily cases for the first time since April, according to JHU data. Germany and France are both now averaging over 1,000 daily cases for the first time since May. Spain is backsliding as well, with average daily cases approaching 4,000—numbers not seen since April.
Experts have suggested a number of reasons for this European resurgence, most of them tied to the over eagerness of governments to reopen economies before the virus had been contained enough to maintain control. My U.K.-based colleague Billy Perrigo wrote a deep explainer on the situation, which you can read here.
The U.S. Hit 5 Million Confirmed Cases
The U.S. accounts for about 25% of all confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world—and just 4% of the global population. New U.S. cases are also accumulating faster than they did in the pandemic’s early months. The country recorded 1 million diagnoses on April 28. It then took about six weeks to hit 2 million cases, and another month to hit 3 million. From there, only about two weeks passed before the country hit the 4 millionth case mark—and now, another two weeks later, the tally is up to 5 million.
The coronavirus numbers in the country have grown so large that it sometimes feels numbing. To help with scale, here are some ways to think about what 5 million people infected actually means:
It’s about equal to the entire population of Ireland
Also, to the entire population of New Zealand
It’s enough people to fill Madison Square Garden to capacity 240 times
It’s more than five times the total staffed hospital bed capacity (about 925,000) in the U.S.
In addition, deaths continue to rise in the U.S.—about 162,600 as of 12:30 PM eastern today, according to the JHU tracker. Again, unfathomable numbers. It’s worth taking the time to consider each of these represents the loss of a person, their life, and what it meant to family, loved ones, and colleagues. So I’ll end today with shortened versions of remembrances of two such individuals, written as part of TIME’s ongoing project to chronicle lives lost to COVID-19.
IN MEMORY
Milca Hernandez, educator for special-needs children
A year ago, Milca Hernandez gathered a group of church members at the Fountain of Salvation Church in Elizabeth, N.J., for a lesson on autism. A few parents who attended the church had young children with autism, and Hernandez wanted to ensure everyone did their part to create a welcoming and supportive environment for the children and their parents.
Among the attendees was Rev. Mayra Caraballo, a longtime friend to Hernandez and her family. “It was just her demeanor, her smile—she had such a peace about her, such a welcoming personality,” says Caraballo. “I tell you, we were impacted.”
Hernandez, a dedicated educator for special needs children, died on May 27 after contracting COVID-19. She was 55. The mother of three and grandmother to six spent most of her career as a teacher at Grace A. Dunn Middle School in Trenton, N.J. She was also an ordained minister who taught Sunday school and encouraged missionary work.
“Her inspiration, her dedication, her commitment to her students was immeasurable,” Caraballo says. “She devoted her life to making sure her students had a fair chance, and never allowed the trials they faced to get in the way. She had such a beautiful gift.” —Jasmine Aguilera
Tarlach MacNiallais, LGBTQ+ and disability rights activist
Tarlach MacNiallais could hear the crowd roaring as he marched up Fifth Avenue during New York City’s 2016 St. Patrick’s Day parade. He had fought for decades for LGBTQ+ groups to be included in the famed event, and he savored his hard-won victory as he walked with the Lavender and Green Alliance advocacy group. MacNiallais was a fierce advocate for LGBTQ+ and disability rights who dedicated his life to fighting for equality and justice. On April 1, he died from complications related to COVID-19. He was 57.
Born in Belfast, Northern Ireland, MacNiallais moved to New York City in the 1980s to “live a freer life,” says his brother Brendan Nellis. He had fought for LGBTQ+ rights while living in Ireland and continued his activism in New York, where he met his husband, Juan Nepomuceno. He also spent decades advocating for disability rights and worked at A.H.R.C. New York City—a nonprofit that supports people with developmental disabilities—for nearly 35 years.
“He was a battering ram on issues of importance,” wrote Harriet Golden, vice president for program operations and innovation at A.H.R.C. New York City. He was also a warmhearted, “big burly bear of a man” who lit up any room he entered, says his friend and fellow activist Brendan Fay. Fay recalls a time in the ‘80s when they were both arrested while protesting, and MacNiallais started singing as they sat in police custody.
And he was always smiling, Nellis added. “He could sing anywhere, anytime. He was a great man that enjoyed life.” —Madeleine Carlisle
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Elijah Wolfson.
Correction: A previous edition of this newsletter incorrectly referred to Nancy Pelosi as a U.S. senator. She is, in fact, a congresswoman, and the current Speaker of the House of Representatives.
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