You'd have thought that the sight of overflow hospital tents and refrigerated trucks to hold victims' bodies in New York would have been enough to scare us all straight back in mid-March and early April, when COVID-19 infection rates peaked at 32,000 new cases a day, or nearly 10 cases per 100,000 residents—making social distancing, mask-wearing and hand-washing all universal practices. But shortly after that peak, the warm weather arrived and several states cautiously reopened some public spaces for Memorial Day.
That, as we wrote at the time, quickly led to distressing signs of upticks in several states, pushing the national rate marginally north again. By the end of June, the rolling average of new cases per day had far exceeded the April peak, prompting some states to pull back their reopening plans. But the damage had been done. By mid-July, a second wave peaked at over twice the value of the first, exceeding 67,000 cases per day, more than 20 cases per capita.
Heading into the fall and winter, there are clear signs of a third resurgence bearing a close resemblance to what we saw in early June. Since the most recent nadir on Sept. 9, when the national rate was at 34,300 cases a day—still a notch above the April peak—cases have risen to 45,300 a day, a 32% increase. The numbers paint an alarmingly familiar picture that spells trouble ahead.
Our latest story breaks down the geographic and demographic data driving this new wave, showing how the regions, types of places and age groups suffering the most have markedly shifted over the past few months. But whatever the manifold causes of the third wave, there is reason to worry that it will prove worse than the first two. The arrival of colder weather in some states means more time spent indoors, where viruses are more easily transmitted by aerosols produced when people sneeze, cough or merely speak. With the pandemic still raging, many people will likely scrap seasonal travel and family get-togethers for Thanksgiving, Christmas and so on—but many are likely to press ahead regardless, meaning minimal social distancing in crowded planes and trains and around holiday dinner tables.
Whether the third wave will be followed by a fourth is, paradoxically, both impossible to say and entirely within our control. Hopefully, greater policy coherence from Washington, uniform national rules around masking and distancing, and broad public acceptance of an eventual vaccine—once it is proven to be safe and effective—will all, at last, stuff the COVID-19 genie back into its bottle. Until then, the U.S., which represents only 4% of the world's population yet has reported more than 20% of its COVID-9 cases and deaths, will continue to struggle. It is up to all of us, working together, to bring that suffering to an end.
More than 32.9 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and nearly 1 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Sept. 27, there were 155,542 new cases and 2,552 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 350,000 confirmed cases to date ("per cap" is number per 100,000 people):
The world is teetering on the edge of 1 million COVID-19 deaths, according to the most recent data from Johns Hopkins University. While a number that huge can be difficult to process, it’s a stark reminder that even as we focus on what individual countries are doing to contain the virus, the pathogen knows no borders and threatens all of us, requiring coordinated global action at a level that, so far, we simply haven’t seen enough of.
Indeed, Dr. Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization’s health emergencies program, believes that barring better collective action against the virus, the overall death toll could climb as high as 2 million. “It’s certainly unimaginable, but it’s not impossible, because if we look at losing 1 million people in nine months and then we just look at the realities of getting vaccines out there in the next nine months, it’s a big task for everyone involved,” Ryan said during a press conference Friday.
Among the countries that are at highest risk right now: India, which could overtake the U.S. as the global leader in coronavirus cases sometime in October, as the Washington Postreports. That’s particularly alarming because India lacks the resources to adequately treat such a huge number of patients—meaning the eventual death toll there could be staggering compared to other, better-equipped countries.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 7.1 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 204,700 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Sept. 27, there were 36,919 new cases and 266 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
The U.S. is “not in a good place” in its fight against the virus, Dr. Anthony Fauci, longtime head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told ABC’s Good Morning America earlier today. Fauci called the country’s recent average of about 30,000-40,000 new daily cases “unacceptably high.” “You don’t want to be in a position like that as the weather starts getting cold,” he said. He also pointed to hospitalization upsticks in some states as a sign that we may see an increase in the death rate as well.
“Everything he says is false.” That’s reportedly a quote from Redfield, the CDC Director, about Dr. Scott Atlas, a neurologist who was added to the White House’s coronavirus task force last month and has promoted controversial ideas like herd immunity, a flawed containment strategy that relies on lots of people getting coronavirus and developing natural immunity to it. An NBC News reporter overheard Redfield talking about Atlas on a recent flight from Atlanta—where the CDC is based—to Washington, D.C. “Dr. Redfield was having a private discussion regarding a number of points he has made publicly about COVID-19,” the CDC told NBC News.
In a reminder that this virus can remerge in places thought to have largely quashed it, New York City officials are keeping tabs on spiking positivity rates in a number of Brooklyn and Queens neighborhoods, the local ABC affiliate reports. Many of these neighborhoods have sizable Orthodox Jewish populations; officials are concerned that Yom Kippur gatherings may contribute to further spread.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of September 28, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Doctors Tell Me I Have COVID. Why Won't the Tests?
Julia Ioffe, who typically writes about national security for GQ, says she’s been sick for weeks with what doctors told her is COVID-19, but she keeps testing negative for the virus. Her story illuminates testing’s limitations and reminds us that it’s only one of several tools we have to curb the virus, in addition to measures like social distancing and mask-wearing. Read more here.
We’re On the Brink of a Health Insurance Nightmare
The pandemic has, among many other things, shown that it’s probably a bad idea to tie health insurance to employment. Case in point: this New York Times story from Reed Abelson, which points out that, as struggling small businesses look to cut costs, health insurance for employees may be first on the chopping block—right when workers are most likely to need it. Read more here.
The Rise of Remote Work Can Be Unexpectedly Liberating
People blessed enough to be able to do their jobs remotely over the past few months seem pretty mixed on the whole bag—I personally love being able to spend more time with my 11-month-old son, but miss actually spending time with my smart, talented, funny colleagues. Here, Jessica Powell muses on the more systemic ways that remote work may change our relationship with our employers—perhaps for the better. Read more here.
—Alex Fitzpatrick
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Jamie Ducharme.
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