Professors Are Warning About COVID-19 On Campus—But They're Being Ignored
If you had access to entire departments full of relevant experts, would you consult them in a crisis?
As colleges and universities reopen their campuses during the pandemic, the answer for many of them seems to be “no.” Across the United States, professors and faculty are building models predicting what might happen once students return—but in many cases, school administrators are ignoring these simulations, writes Kaiser Health News reporter Victoria Knight for TIME.
Their predictions are dire. For instance, a simulation from an engineering and science faculty group at Penn State University showed that, under the school’s plan to test 1% of students each day, more than 1,800 students would likely get sick and two may even die over a single semester. But the team never heard back from school administrators; a Penn State spokesperson later said that it had developed its own model. (Since Penn State opened in late August, about 650 students at the University Park campus have tested positive.)
Of course, models aren’t perfect. One, made by faculty at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, failed to account for students’ drive to socialize despite the inherent risks; their results actually underestimated how reality has played out so far. “What is not in the models is that students will actually fail to isolate...that they would go to a party even if they knew they were COVID-positive or that they would host a party while they were COVID-positive,” one researcher said.
As campus after campus suffers alarming outbreaks, many faculty members wish their warnings would be heeded before matters worsen further still. “You don’t need a model to understand that bringing together all the young adult population in college campuses around the country is putting a lit match in a gas can,” one researcher said.
More than 29.5 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 7 a.m. EDT today, and more than 934,000 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Sept. 15, there were 380,492 new cases and 7,737 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 350,000 confirmed cases to date ("per cap" is number per 100,000 people):
Israel is locking down for a second time as infection rates there skyrocket, with between 3,000 and 4,000 new daily cases in a country of just 9 million people. The lockdown will begin just before Rosh Hashanah—the Jewish New Year—and extend through several other key holidays. Even Jerusalem’s Great Synagogue will close over the high holidays for the first time in history. “This is not the kind of holiday we are used to,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israelis. “And we certainly won’t be able to celebrate with our extended families.” Those opposed to the lockdown are citing concerns about impeding religious practices and slowing the economy.
Central Europe may have avoided the first wave of the virus, but cases there are now soaring. In the past week, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia have each recorded their highest-ever daily caseloads, largely due to increased travel and eased restrictions. Governments there are loath to institute economy-crippling lockdowns, but they have reinstated travel restrictions and social-distancing measures.
Life will likely not reach “pre-COVID” levels of normalcy until 2022, World Health Organization Chief Science Officer Dr. Soumya Swaminathan said yesterday. “We're looking at 2022 at least before enough people start getting the vaccine to build immunity,” she told reporters, according to CNN. “So for a long time to come, we have to maintain the same kind of measures that are currently being put in place with physical distancing, the masking and respiratory hygiene.”
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 6.6 million coronavirus cases as of 7 a.m. EDT today. More than 195,000 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Sept. 15, there were 52,081 new cases and 1,422 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services spokesman Michael Caputo is taking a leave of absence "to focus on his health and the well-being of his family," the agency announced today, following an alarming Facebook post this past Sunday in which he predicted armed conflict over this November's election.
following an alarming Facebook post in which he predicted armed conflict over this November’s election, the agency announced today. The news also comes amid reports that Caputo's team attempted to edit reports about the coronavirus outbreak to make the national picture seem rosier than reality.
Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told a Senate committee today that facial coverings may better protect people from the virus than a vaccine, when one becomes available. “Face masks are the most important powerful public health tool we have," he said during a Senate appropriations subcommittee hearing about the pandemic response. “I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine." Though face masks mostly protect others by limiting the spread of the virus, there is some evidence they can help protect the wearer—but it’s still unclear how effective an eventual vaccine might be. Redfield added that a vaccine will likely not be widely available to the American public until the spring or summer of 2021, far longer than what many Trump Administration officials have claimed.
Pharmaceutical firm Eli Lilly said today that its experimental drug reduces viral levels in the blood of people who have recently contracted the coronavirus, the New York Timesreports, lessening the chance they will need to be hospitalized. Of 450 new COVID-19 patients, those receiving the drug were 72% less likely to require hospitalization than those receiving a placebo, the company claims. Still, the monoclonal antibody treatment, offered in a single infusion, is still being tested, and the data have yet to be peer reviewed or provided in detail.
The Big Ten Conference—which had planned to postpone its college football season—called an audible today, announcing that teams will hit the gridiron in late October. Players, coaches, trainers and others on the field will be tested daily, and students who test positive will be barred from playing for at least 21 days. The reversal, made by the presidents and chancellors of division universities, comes after pressure from players, coaches, fans and U.S. President Donald Trump.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of September 16, 1 a.m. eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Scientific American Endorses Joe Biden
For the first time in the magazine’s 175-year history, Scientific American has endorsed a presidential candidate: Joe Biden. “The evidence and the science show that Donald Trump has badly damaged the U.S. and its people—because he rejects evidence and science,” wrote the editors in the September/October issue. “That is why we urge you to vote for Joe Biden, who is offering fact-based plans to protect our health, our economy and the environment.” Read more here.
New York City to Open its Own Testing Lab
Officials in the Big Apple have opened a lab dedicated to testing residents of the five boroughs for the virus, according to the New York Times. The Manhattan-based lab is expected to deliver people’s results within 24-48 hours—far faster than most labs’ current turnaround times. Read more here.
Has COVID-19 Been With Americans Since 2019?
The coronavirus may have been spreading in the U.S. as early as December 2019—about a month earlier than generally believed—according to a recent study by University of California, Los Angeles researchers. The authors, who analyzed about 10 million medical records from UCLA hospitals and clinics, found that respiratory illnesses were up a significant amount during that period, CNN reports; COVID-19 could explain the spike. Read more here.
How 7 People Died From a Wedding They Didn’t Attend
A wedding in Maine with fewer than 100 guests has been linked to 175 coronavirus infections and seven deaths, the Washington Post reports. In a testament to how quickly and perniciously the virus spreads, none of those who died actually attended the wedding. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Mandy Oaklander and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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