Public health crises have spawned conspiracy theories at least as far back as the 1300s, when the Black Death ravaged Europe, and people theorized that it was created astrologically—a sort of conspiracy of the planets—by a triple conjunction of Saturn, Jupiter and Mars, in the fortieth degree of Aquarius. In 17th century Geneva, people speculated that a bout of plague was caused by housekeepers smearing the fat of plague victims on door handles and door knockers. While modern science offers a better understanding of diseases, COVID-19 conspiracy theories continue to spread via social media, unreliable news outlets and from political leaders, including U.S. President Donald Trump. The result: many Americans now believe pandemic-related conspiracy theories—and, alarmingly, those same people are less likely to take steps to prevent the virus from spreading.
In a University of Pennsylvania Annenberg Public Policy Center study published earlier this week in Social Science & Medicine, researchers surveyed a group of 840 U.S. adults—first in late March, and then again in mid-July—to determine how Americans' beliefs and actions regarding the pandemic changed over time. Overall, they found that COVID-19 conspiracy theories are not only commonplace, they're gaining traction. Back in March, 28% of people believed a debunked rumor that the Chinese government created the coronavirus as a bioweapon; that number rose to 37% by July. About 24% believed that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention exaggerated the virus' danger to hurt Trump politically despite a lack of evidence; by July, that figure rose to 32%. And in March, about 15% of respondents said they believed that the pharmaceutical industry created the virus to boost drug and vaccine sales—another unfounded theory—compared to 17% in July.
Whether or not someone thinks NASA hired Stanley Kubrick to fake the moon landing has little bearing on the world beyond that person. But in the case of a pandemic—which requires people to follow public health guidance in order to keep one another safe—conspiratorial thinking can have disastrous consequences. Indeed, the Annenberg study found that only 62% of people who were most likely to believe the coronavirus conspiracies said they wear a mask every day when they’re around other people away from home, compared to 95% of non-believers. Furthermore, in March, only 37% survey respondents who most strongly believed three COVID-19 conspiracy theories said they would get a vaccine once one was approved; by July, only 22% said they would be vaccinated.
More than 31.5 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 969,000 people have died.
On Sept. 22, there were 196,207 new cases and 4,795 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 350,000 confirmed cases to date ("per cap" is number per 100,000 people):
China said today that it will relax restrictions on certain categories of foreigners entering the country beginning next Monday, according to a statement from the Chinese foreign ministry. Foreign nationals with valid Chinese residence permits for work, personal matters and family reunion will now be allowed to enter China; since March, they have been barred from doing so.
Sweden didn’t lock down when the coronavirus swept through Europe, pursuing a “herd-immunity” approach instead. That strategy resulted in a relatively high death count in the country: more than 5,800 people there have died of the coronavirus, according to data from John Hopkins University. Sweden’s chief epidemiologist now says its higher coronavirus death toll is due, in part, to the mild flu seasons it has experienced in the past few years, CNBC reports . "When many people die of the flu in the winter, fewer die in heat waves the following summer. In this case, it was COVID-19 that caused many to die," epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said this week. Cases are now rising in Sweden, particularly in the capital city of Stockholm.
If airlines have their way, international travelers will all take—and pass—a COVID-19 test before being allowed to board. Yesterday, a group of global airlines called for rapid testing for all international passengers as a way to avoid hard-to-enforce quarantines upon arrival, according to a release from the International Air Transport Association, a trade association of global airlines. International travel is down 92% compared to last year, the group said. “Testing all passengers will give people back their freedom to travel with confidence. And that will put millions of people back to work,” said Alexandre de Juniac, Director General and CEO of the association, in the release. The approach would need global cooperation to work, but for the U.S., at least, it’s not yet realistic. "We would love to see the U.S. government work with international authorities to lower the barriers to international trade and commerce," United Airlines Chief Communications Officer Josh Earnest told ABC News. "We just don't have the capacity as a country, to do that many tests."
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 6.8 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 200,700 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Sept. 22, there were 39,334 new cases and 921 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
The final-stage trial has begun for Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine candidate, the company announced today. The Phase 3 trial is starting months later than those of the company's competitors, but is the largest yet—enrolling 60,000 people in eight countries—and the vaccine will require just one dose, not two. Results from the trial could be available any time late this year or early 2021.
More than 90% of Americans are still susceptible to COVID-19, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today as he and three other top administration health officials testified about the pandemic response before a Senate committee. He also said that it could take until July of 2021 for most Americans to get vaccinated, sticking to the timeline he stated last week when he testified before a Senate subcommittee. (At the time, President Donald Trump said that Redfield “made a mistake” and “was confused,” and that the vaccine would be available much sooner.)
Early in the pandemic, older Americans were the most likely to get COVID-19 in the U.S. But in June through August, that burden shifted to younger people. Out of all age groups, disease incidence during those months was highest among people ages 20-29, new CDC data showed today. The numbers confirm that younger people have a large role to play in reducing the spread of infection.
This week, the CDC released guidelines for celebrating Halloween safely. Unfortunately, nearly every fun activity is verboten: trick-or-treating puts you too close to strangers, haunted houses make you scream (an act that releases virus particles everywhere) and bobbing for apples...don’t even get health professionals started. Somewhat safer activities include visiting a socially distanced “haunted forest” with a mask on, or attending a small, distanced outdoor costume contest. But the safest events of all include having a virtual costume contest and carving pumpkins or watching scary movies at home.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of September 23, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Scientists Dominate the TIME100 List
This year’s TIME100 list, announced last night, includes more doctors, scientists, health care workers and researchers than in any other year. Among the honorees is Lauren Gardner, who created the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 dashboard, and Dr. Zhong Nanshan, the public face of China's efforts to contain the coronavirus. Read more here.
Remembering a Special Education Teacher Lost to COVID-19
Teacher AshLee DeMarinis planned to return to her Missouri middle school to teach this fall, but in late August, before school started, she was hospitalized with the virus. She died three weeks later at age 34. "Ms. DeMarinis touched many lives as an educator and will be missed dearly by our community," wrote Alex McCaul, her school district’s superintendent. Read more here.
What Another Year of the Pandemic Looks Like
2020 took the U.S. by surprise, but one thing it provided was a blueprint—for how bad things can get, and for how things are likely to progress here. Reporters at STAT asked experts to forecast the major milestones we have to look forward to from now until the end of next year. Plenty, they predict, will hinge on the November election. Read more here.
The Metropolitan Opera Won’t Open for Another Year
The Metropolitan Opera announced today that its doors will remain closed through next September—and not reopen on New Year’s Eve, as hoped. The prolonged closure of the country’s largest performing arts organization does not bode well for live arts institutions across the country, the New York Times reports. Read more here.
—Mandy Oaklander
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and Mandy Oaklander, and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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