After four months and more than 171 million vaccines administered in the U.S., you’d think we’d have a pretty good idea if the shots are working. That’s an awfully robust real-time study, after all, one that my colleague Chris Wilson (TIME’s director of data journalism) describes as a sort of “unofficial Phase 4 clinical trial.” And the results of that trial look good. The rolling seven-day average of daily COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. is 611—a terrible figure, but one that is dramatically better than the post-Holiday peak of 3,428 on January 11.
So, good news, right? Maybe not.
As Chris explains—and as the experts he spoke to agree—it’s far too soon to attribute the improving numbers to the vaccinations. That’s partly due to the fact that death is a lagging indicator of COVID-19 infections, and partly due to the fact that the vaccination rates are still too low to conclude anything definitively. The best we can say so far is that vaccines work on an individual basis, protecting the vast majority of recipients from contracting the disease, but whether they’re effective in the overall goal of ending the pandemic is not clear at all yet.
“The critical question is whether the U.S. COVID-19 mortality figures will continue declining as vaccination accelerates, or whether the current dip is merely a temporary nadir ahead of what may very well be a coming fourth wave, as improving weather and misguided complacency lures more of the population out of their proverbial bunkers,” Chris writes.
Not only are the vaccination rates still too low to confirm the large-scale effectiveness of the shots, they are also too unevenly distributed across the population. Georgia has vaccinated a national low of 14.1% of its population, for example, compared to a high of 26.4% in New Mexico.
The good news is that overall, the U.S. mortality rates resemble the previous lows recorded last summer and in October. The bad news is that both of those lows were followed by highs. Ultimately, the effectiveness of the inoculation drive will turn on a three-way tug of war with vaccines pulling one way, emerging variants pulling another, and human behavior—whether we continue social distancing and wearing masks—a third.
More than 225 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, of which 171.4 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 32.2% of the overall U.S. population has received at least one dose, and about 19.4% of Americans have been completely vaccinated. (Note: these numbers have not been updated by the CDC since yesterday's Coronavirus Brief was sent out.)
There’s more trouble for the AstraZeneca vaccine, as Australia earlier today became the latest country to restrict its use, limiting the shot to people over 50, the Associated Press reports . The move comes after the European Medicines Association, the European Union’s pharmaceutical regulatory body, confirmed that it had found a “possible link” between the vaccine and rare blood clots. The clots typically turn up in younger people, leading to Australia’s decision to impose an age limit.
Germany is taking a stricter approach toward the AstraZeneca vaccine than Australia is. The government has announced that not only should the shot not be given to anyone under 60, but that people who have received one AstraZeneca dose should switch to the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for their second, reports the German news site The Local. So far, Germany has administered 2.8 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine and has recorded 31 cases of blood clots that may be associated with it.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 132.9 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and nearly 2.9 million people have died. On April 7, there were 557,147 new cases and 14,133 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2 million confirmed cases:
The situation is growing grimmer in Brazil, where a daily record 4,200 coronavirus cases were recorded on Tuesday and where officials in Sao Paulo now report that they are adding 600 new graves to local cemeteries every day, reports The Washington Post. The local P.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2 is driving the Brazilian surge, but the government also reports it has detected the country’s first case of the even more-transmissible South African variant. Overall, Brazil’s 13.1 million COVID cases trail only the U.S.’s 30.9 million.
Thailand is reporting a surge in cases in the provinces, according to Reuters. The country’s strict quarantine system had kept cases to a comparatively low 30,310 nationwide, but the new outbreak resulted in 405 new cases just yesterday. The army is setting up field hospitals with a total of 3,000 beds at 10 different sites as it prepares for still more. The surge is being traced to Bangkok’s entertainment district, and in response the government is ordering a shutdown of pubs, karaoke bars and other nightspots in the capital and 40 provinces.
The U.K. may be emerging from the worst of its most recent coronavirus surge as the government reported a 60% drop in infections from February to March, according to the Associated Press. Hospitalizations and deaths are also falling among people who do contract COVID-19. Officials credit both social distancing and the rollout of vaccines for the dramatic improvement in the numbers. So far 31.7 million people—or 60% of the adult population—have received at least one vaccine dose.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 30.9 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 557,000 people have died. On April 7, there were 75,628 new cases and 2,563 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
Of the 453,360 cases of coronavirus reported in the US. in the past week, more than 196,400—or 43%—were accounted for by just five states: New York, New Jersey, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, CNN reports. Together, the five states represent just 22% of the U.S. population. CNN says that health experts are partly blaming the local increases on the B.1.1.7 strain, which first emerged in the U.K. and is now, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the dominant strain in the U.S.
Michigan, which leads the above group, with more than 6,600 cases per day, is also seeing a similarly stark increase in hospitalizations, reports local news outlet MLive.com. Nearly 12% of hospital beds are now being used by COVID patients, an increase of 203% since February. While alarming, the current hospitalization rate is still lower than it was during the surge last fall, or in the all-time peak last April. The state health system’s model, however, predicts that if hospitalizations continue at the current rate, that 2020 record could be topped as early as Monday of next week.
There are heartbreaking numbers in a new study published in JAMA Pediatrics, as I reported yesterday. Working with a computer model based on U.S. Census Bureau data, researchers estimate that 43,000 American children 17 years old or younger have lost at least one parent during the pandemic. As with so many things in the U.S. health system, the numbers are worse in the Black community, which represents 20% of the overall deaths despite making up just 13.4% of the population.
The pandemic is exposing wide holes in the health care safety net—with Black, LatinX and other underserved communities receiving worse care than those in white and wealthier demographics. In response, CDC Director Dr. Rachel Walenskey today announced an agency-wide initiative to address racism in health care. As Walensky told my colleague Alice Park, “The word racism is intentional in this [initiative] for the CDC. This is not just about the color of your skin but also about where you live, where you work, where your children play, where you pray, how you get to work, the jobs you have.”
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of April 8, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
COVID-19 Has Driven a Rise in Polio Cases
Health workers are struggling to control a surge in polio cases in Afghanistan—one of only two countries in the world, along with Pakistan, in which the disease is still endemic—after lockdowns stalled vaccination drives, reports the Associated Press. Read more here.
Pandemic Deepens Global Wealth Divide
The developed world is in a position to make a comeback from the pandemic recession, but the improvement is leaving the developing world behind, reports the Wall Street Journal. Part of the problem is a disparity in vaccine coverage, with emerging markets poised to vaccinate just 28% of their population this year, compared to 72% for wealthier countries. Read more here.
A Lung Tissue Transplant Was Used to Treat COVID-19
Doctors in Japan report having performed the first transplant of lung tissue from living donors to treat a patient whose own lungs were severely damaged by COVID-19, according to U.S. News and World Report. The patient, an unidentified woman, received the tissue from her husband and son. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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