Why the CDC Changed Its Guidance on Outdoor Masking
A couple hours after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday announced that fully vaccinated people don't need masks outside (except in big crowds), I stepped out to run an errand. I expected a sea of bare faces, circa 2019. Instead, everything looked...pretty much the same. Some people weren't wearing masks, but most were. It was fine.
Online, however, the CDC's policy has sparked fierce debate. Some people have proudly proclaimed they'll mask up outside despite the new guidance, out of an abundance of caution, an effort to promote a culture of mask-wearing or simply because it's easier than remembering to take it on and off while out and about. Others have mocked those who ever wore masks outdoors, and in some cases have called for more dramatic repeals on mask policy. So, who's right?
Here's what we know, based on the science: COVID-19 vaccines seem to be about 90% effective at preventing not just illness, but also infection, according to CDC research. As of mid-April, fewer than 6,000 of the millions of fully vaccinated people in the U.S. had been diagnosed with COVID-19. And since fully vaccinated people are quite unlikely to be infected with the virus, they're also unlikely to pass it on to others.
They're especially unlikely to do so outdoors. Poorly ventilated indoor environments are the riskiest settings for COVID-19 spread, because people can be exposed to respiratory droplets, like those expelled from a sick person's cough or sneeze, as well as tiny infectious particles that linger in the air, potentially for minutes or hours after a sick person exhaled them. A recent research review estimated that fewer than 10% of infections occur outdoors, where the virus dissipates quickly and effectively.
Based on those data, it seems pretty safe for vaccinated people to go maskless outside, provided they aren't in a crowded setting around lots of unvaccinated people. (Remember, about 70% of the U.S. population isn't yet fully protected.) There's nothing wrong with continuing to mask up as a precaution, but it doesn't seem strictly necessary in most outdoor settings.
As someone who lives in New York City, an inherently crowded place, I'll likely stay mostly masked until vaccination rates are a little higher and case rates a little lower. But if I find myself on an empty side street or quiet park, I'm excited to breathe in some fresh, mask-free air.
More than 301.8 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this afternoon, of which more than 234.6 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 29.5% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
The European Union has secured a massive, 1.8 billion-dose allotment of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the New York Times reports. That makes the E.U.—which has so far vaccinated only 22% of its population with at least one dose—Pfizer's biggest customer. (The U.S., by comparison, has agreed to purchase 300 million doses.) The deal would start with an agreement to buy 900 million doses by the end of 2023, with an option to purchase an additional 900 million if necessary.
U.K. researchers today reported more encouraging real-world evidence about COVID-19 vaccines: a single dose of the AstraZeneca-Oxford or Pfizer-BioNTech shots appears to significantly slow disease transmission. People who received a single shot were between 38% and 49% less likely to infect an unvaccinated person in their household than they would have been pre-vaccination, the researchers wrote in a pre-print study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed.
And in more good news, CDC data say fully vaccinated adults 65 or older are 94% protected against hospitalization with COVID-19. Since elderly adults are the age group most likely to develop severe cases of COVID-19, that impressive effectiveness promises ongoing improvements in hospitalization and death rates nationwide.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 148.7 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 3.1 million people have died. On April 27, there were 844,470 new cases and 14,553 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2.5 million confirmed cases:
As COVID-19 continues to spread ferociously in India, with more than 300,000 new cases reported there each day, neighboring countries are taking steps to keep the virus out, CNN reports. Bangladesh has sealed its border with India for two weeks, several Nepalese cities will go under lockdown starting tomorrow and Pakistan has banned travel from India. But countries in the region are already seeing surges begin to take hold. Pakistan, for example, reported its deadliest day yet today, with 201 virus-related casualties.
The 46 economies that make up the Asia-Pacific region are set to grow by 7.3% this year—higher than the 6.2% and 3.8% increases forecast in the U.S. and Eurozone, respectively, TIME's Amy Gunia reports. That is assuming, however, that Asian countries can step up their vaccination programs and avoid new COVID-19 surges. That's a big if, considering many Asia-Pacific nations have vaccinated only single-digit percentages of their populations.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 32.1 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 573,000 people have died. On April 27, there were 50,856 new cases and 707 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
A group of Republican lawmakers with medical training yesterday released a video encouraging Americans to get vaccinated, emphasizing the safety and efficacy of the shots and calling them a path back to freedom. Vaccine uptake has been lower among people who vote Republican versus Democratic, so the video could be a valuable call to action.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of April 28, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
India's COVID-19 Surge May Be Partially Fueled by Genetic Variants
Mutations that make the SARS-CoV-2 virus more transmissible may be worsening India's massive COVID-19 spike, TIME's Alice Park reports. As of March, nearly 40% of viral samples sequenced in the country included two specific mutations. Read more here.
The Survivor's Guilt of Watching India's Outbreak from Afar
In this beautiful but wrenching essay, author Aatish Taseer writes for TIME about the strange double reality of living in a rebounding New York while his native India—and his loved ones there—battle the hell of COVID-19. Read more here.
Learning How to Parent in Public
Having a baby during the pandemic taught Rebekah Taussig how to be a new mom—and a disabled mom—from the comfort of home. Now that she's re-entering the world, she writes for TIME, things are a bit more complicated. Read more here.
The Vaccine Content Economy
"'Inject it directly into my veins' used to be a way of talking about a piece of culture we desperately wanted to consume, but now the inverse is happening," Amanda Hess writes in this New York Times column on vaccine brand stan culture. "We are experiencing our vaccine injections as if they are coveted cultural products." Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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