The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently considers someone fully vaccinated against COVID-19 two weeks after their final shot—either the single dose of Johnson & Johnson's vaccine, or the second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna's.
But increasingly, it looks like the need for another dose may be on the horizon. The CEOs of both Pfizer and Moderna made headlines this week for talking about booster shots, with Pfizer's Albert Bourla saying people would "likely" need a third dose within a year of their second one. After that, the shots may be given annually, like flu shots.
As my colleague Alice Park breaks down in her latest story, that's not surprising. Since COVID-19 vaccines were first developed, experts have warned that no one knows how long their high efficacy rates—around 95% for both Pfizer and Moderna—last.
"That's because SARS-CoV-2, like many other viruses we know about—from influenza to HIV—doesn't sit still," Alice writes. It steadily mutates and evolves, producing the much-publicized variants popping up around the world. As the virus changes, its new iterations can get better at evading vaccines. An extra dose may keep the immune system strong enough to keep the invaders out.
Both Pfizer and Moderna are studying the effects of a third dose of their existing vaccines, as well as booster shots developed specifically to protect against new viral variants. They're also following up with clinical trial participants to see how long the protection from two doses lasts. Johnson & Johnson, meanwhile, is studying the possibility of a second dose.
With all that research ongoing, it's not guaranteed that you'll need an extra dose—but don't be surprised if that ends up being the consensus. "Even if COVID-19 vaccination becomes like flu," Alice says, "it will provide good protection against the more devastating effects of the disease."
More than 258.5 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, of which 202.2 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 24.3% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
The CDC's vaccine advisory panel will meet on April 23 to decide the fate of Johnson & Johnson's vaccine in the U.S. Federal health authorities this week called for a pause on the shot's use after reports of extremely rare but serious blood clots among a handful of women who received it. On Wednesday, the CDC's panel delayed a vote on whether that pause should be lifted, citing the need for more data. The panel's members are expected to make a decision when they reconvene next week.
In better news, fewer than 6,000 of the 66 million fully vaccinated people in the U.S. have tested positive for the virus after completing their immunizations, according to CDC data. That's an incredibly small percentage—about 0.008%—that speaks to the remarkable effectiveness of the currently available vaccines.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 139 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 2.9 million people have died. On April 15, there were 816,761 new cases and 13,200 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2 million confirmed cases:
Even as good vaccine news piles up, here's a sobering wakeup call: global COVID-19 infection rates are approaching their highest point of the entire pandemic, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said today. The global number of cases per week has roughly doubled over the last two months and shows no signs of slowing. Yesterday, for example, there were more than 800,000 new cases reported worldwide. That's a reminder that many countries have yet to vaccinate nearly enough people to think about a post-pandemic future. Moreover, the virus has more opportunities to mutate in places where it's spreading unchecked.
Certain countries with good vaccine access, however, stand on the precipice of normality. Israel's health minister said yesterday that, starting this weekend, Israelis will no longer have to wear masks outdoors. (They will still be required in public indoor places.) Israel has now vaccinated more than half of its population, enough to approach herd immunity levels.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 31.4 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 565,000 people have died. On April 15, there were 74,289 new cases and 887 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
Almost half of U.S. states saw at least a 10% rise in average new daily COVID-19 cases this week, CNN reports , underscoring the need for more Americans to get vaccinated—and fast. Though vaccine rollout has picked up considerably, with almost a quarter of people in the U.S. now fully protected, the virus is currently spreading faster than vaccines can provide a barrier against it. The sooner states can approach herd immunity, the better their odds of avoiding another surge.
That can't happen, however, if people don't want to get vaccinated. In states across the country, there are signs that supply is now far higher than demand. TurboVax, a popular website and Twitter account that helps connect New Yorkers to open vaccine appointments, is reporting a 70% decrease in web traffic compared to last week. That's in part because state websites now have more appointment availability, but it also signals that many vaccine-eager people have already gotten their shots.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of April 16, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Will Travel Be Safe This Summer?
If you're still confused about whether travel is safe, you're not alone. Here's what an expert had to say in TIME's latest COVID Questions column. Read more here.
Reinfection Is Possible, Even for the Young and Healthy
A new study of 18- to 20-year-old U.S. Marines recruits found that 10% of those who had already had COVID-19 later tested positive for the virus, highlighting the shortfalls of natural immunity. Read more here.
Philadelphia's Vaccine Valet
Nurse practitioner Tarik Kahn absolutely hates wasting vaccine doses. So at the end of his shifts, he takes leftover doses on the road, making house calls to vulnerable Philadelphians, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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