Looking at the latest global COVID-19 curve is a sobering thing. While the pandemic feels like it's ebbing here in the U.S., the worldwide outbreak is worse than it's ever been, hitting a peak seven-day average of 10.7 new cases for every 100,000 residents on April 21. The global spike is largely being driven by India, where the coronavirus situation is spinning wildly out of control, as my colleague Naina Bajekal reported in TIME's latest cover story.
Vaccination is the way out of this worldwide hell—countries with high inoculation rates, like Israel, are reporting a pittance of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths lately. But vaccines only work if you can get people to take them. As a new survey from Gallup makes clear, that's easier said than done: more than 1 billion adults across the world told researchers that they wouldn't get a COVID-19 shot even if it was offered to them for free. That means roughly 68% of the global population WOULD get vaccinated—just shy of the 70% mark that many experts believe is required for herd immunity.
Per the Gallup study, global vaccine hesitancy is highest in the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Russia, Romania and North Macedonia—some of which were part of or had ties to the former Soviet Union, potentially leading to a contemporary distrust of the state. In Russia specifically, residents are wary of the domestically-produced Sputnik V vaccine, which some fear was rushed and is unsafe.
Vaccine hesitancy also runs high in some sub-Saharan African countries, like Cameroon, Gabon and Senegal. A Dec. 2020 survey from Africa’s Centers for Disease Control found that while nearly 80% of Africans said they would take a coronavirus vaccine if it were deemed safe and effective, misinformation and disinformation are threatening uptake across the continent, as they are elsewhere in the world. "Most of those who said they would not take a vaccine believe that the disease is man-made, does not exist, or is exaggerated and does not pose a serious threat," the survey found.
A country's past experience with COVID-19 does not seem to predict its residents' feelings towards vaccination. While vaccine acceptance is high in some countries with raging outbreaks, like India (where 82% of adults said they would get vaccinated) and Brazil (70%), it's relatively low in other hard-hit countries, like the U.S. (53%).
What can we do about global vaccine hesitancy? Messaging campaigns from trusted voices have been shown to help. But hesitancy is also tied to access—here in the U.S., vaccine acceptance has gradually increased over time as the shots became more widely available, perhaps in part because those on the fence saw friends and family getting their jabs with no or minimal ill effects. That's just one more reason that we need to get as many doses as possible available across the world as quickly as possible, lest the global outbreak become an utterly unmanageable disaster.
VACCINE TRACKER
About 312.5 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this afternoon, of which 245.6 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 31.6% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
Pfizer is working to expedite approval of its coronavirus vaccine in India, CEO Albert Bourla said in a LinkedIn post yesterday. The company is also donating $70 million in treatments like steroids, anticoagulants and antibiotics to the hard-hit country, he added. Indian public health officials have so far authorized three vaccines: the one from Oxford-AstraZeneca, the Indian-made Covaxin shot, and Russia's Sputnik jab.
Pharmacy chains Walgreens and CVS were responsible for more than half of the 182,874 coronavirus vaccine doses known to have gone to waste in the U.S. as of late March, per U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data obtained by Kaiser Health News. A CVS spokesperson blamed the problem on "issues with transportation restrictions, limitations on redirecting unused doses, and other factors," while a Walgreens representative said the company's wasted doses represent less than 0.5% of the supply it administered through March 29. However, the CDC has only a "limited view" of how many doses are being wasted and where, per Kaiser, complicating efforts to understand and address the problem.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 152.5 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and nearly 3.2 million people have died. On May 2, there were 306,181 new cases and 6,523 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2.5 million confirmed cases:
A top court in India said over the weekend that it will begin punishing government officials who fail to secure badly-needed medical equipment amid the country's nightmarish outbreak, the Associated Press reports. Medical oxygen is in short supply across the country, as are COVID-19 tests and personal protective equipment. India officially reported record daily highs of 401,993 new cases on Friday and 3,689 deaths on Saturday—and both numbers are likely undercounts.
Eight people involved with the Olympic torch relay in Tokyo, Japan have since tested positive for the coronavirus, my colleague Amy Gunia reports, casting further doubt on this year's upcoming Tokyo Olympic Games. Japanese and Olympic officials insist the global athletic competition will begin this July despite Japan's growing outbreak, albeit with added protections for athletes and staffers. Still, more than 70% of people in Japan want the Games canceled or postponed, per an April poll from Kyodo News.
Amy also reports that it's bottoms up in Hong Kong, where bars and nightclubs are once again able to stay open until 2 a.m.—but only for patrons who can prove they've had at least one COVID-19 shot. The requirement may incentivize further uptake, though similar "vaccine passports" have proven controversial in the U.S. and elsewhere, as critics say they violate individual privacy rights.
Meanwhile, Nepal is suspending all domestic and international flights beginning this week in an effort to curb rising coronavirus cases, The Economic Times reports. The move could further hurt the country's tourism-dependent economy; it's popular with mountaineers and other adventure-seekers.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 32.4 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 577,000 people have died. On May 2, there were 29,260 new cases and 323 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
Herd immunity—the point at which enough people are immune to COVID-19 that its spread is drastically reduced—has long been the goal here in the U.S. But flagging vaccination rates suggest nationwide herd immunity may be out of reach, the New York Times reports. Instead, the country may look like more of a vaccination patchwork, where some neighborhoods have high levels of protection, while the virus continues to pose a major risk in others.
Security officers screened 1.63 million passengers at airports across the U.S. yesterday, per the Transportation Security Administration, the highest number since the start of the pandemic. That number is still down about 35% from the same date in 2019, but it shows that Americans are increasingly confident about taking to the skies as mass vaccination continues.
The New York City Subway—by leaps and bounds the country's busiest rapid transit system—will resume 24/7 operations on May 17, New York governor Andrew Cuomo announced today. The subway, which carried nearly 3 million passengers a year in pre-pandemic times, was shut down from 1-5 a.m. for a nightly cleaning beginning in May 2020; the suspension was trimmed to 2-4 a.m. in February. While Cuomo and others have said the nightly cleanings helped prevent viral spread, research suggests deep cleanings are simply "germ theater"—they sound good on paper, but don't have a material impact on transmission.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of May 3, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
How a Miami School Became a Beacon for Anti-Vaxxers
When officials at Miami's Centner Academy, a private school serving preschoolers through eighth graders, began spreading coronavirus misinformation—like the baseless rumor that unvaccinated people should avoid the vaccinated—some parents were aghast. But the school has also gotten tons of interest from parents who also subscribe to pandemic mistruths, the New York Times reports. Read more here.
A Year Without Germs
Those of us lucky enough to have been able to take social-distancing precautions over the past year or so have been isolated not just from the coronavirus, but from all kinds of germs, microbes and pathogens. This Atlantic story asks: What will that mean as we remerge? Read more here.
When Can the Office Open Back Up?
The U.S. CDC has left companies without badly needed guidance while deciding whether it's safe to reopen their offices, write Shantanu Nundy, chief medical officer at healthcare firm Accolade, and Marty Makary, professor of surgery at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine for the Washington Post.Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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