Breakthrough Infections Aren't As Scary As They Sound
Earlier this month, you probably saw headlines about a mini COVID-19 outbreak among the New York Yankees. Eight players and staff tested positive for the virus even though they'd all been fully vaccinated, which prompted questions about how well COVID-19 vaccines really work.
These cases are what's known as "breakthrough infections," and they are—for the most part—much less dramatic than those Yankees headlines would suggest.
"The term 'breakthrough infections' makes it sound like the vaccines aren't working, but in fact, public health experts always expect them. No vaccine can protect 100% against infections," explains my colleague Alice Park, who has a new story on this topic. "The thing to focus on is the rate—how many infections are occurring among vaccinated people compared to unvaccinated?"
In the case of COVID-19 the answer is: very, very few. In fact, new U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data say that just 0.01% of the 101 million people in the U.S. who were fully vaccinated by April 30 tested positive for the virus after their shots. That's a tiny number, one that an epidemiologist told Alice is "about the best information I could expect."
It's also important to remember that the majority of people who do get infected after vaccination don't get seriously ill. Many never see a symptom. Out of about 10,200 breakthrough infections reported to the CDC, only 995 people were hospitalized and 160 died (among those hospitalized, 29% were asymptomatic or hospitalized for a reason unrelated to COVID-19). One hundred and sixty deaths out of 101 million people is a rate of pretty close to zero.
That's not to minimize the experiences of those individuals and their families; any COVID-19 death is a tragedy. It's only to underscore how effective COVID-19 vaccines really are, even if a small number of infections do break through.
About 362.3 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this afternoon, of which about 292.1 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 40.2% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
Emergent BioSolutions, the manufacturer that had to throw away millions of Johnson & Johnson—Janssen vaccine doses due to contamination issues this winter, is expected to receive U.S. Food and Drug Administration clearance to resume production, the Wall Street Journal reports. Emergent has reportedly resolved its quality-control issues to the FDA's satisfaction. If the agency and Johnson & Johnson give the facility their approval, Emergent would be able to produce millions of doses that could either be used in the U.S. or donated overseas.
Pfizer's "pizza boxes"—the massive containers that store hundreds of vials of its vaccine—are a ubiquitous part of vaccine rollout. But their design expressly went against the U.S. government's wishes, STAT reports. The boxes hold more than 1,000 doses, which makes them impractical for smaller health providers and those without adequate cold storage. Especially in the early days of the rollout, when Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine was the only option available in the U.S., that made distribution logistically difficult for health officials—and potentially even slowed the pace of vaccinations, STAT writes.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 168.9 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 3.5 million people have died. On May 27, there were 557,653 new cases and 12,761 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2.5 million confirmed cases:
Africa needs an emergency influx of at least 20 million AstraZeneca vaccine doses as soon as possible, the World Health Organization said in a statement yesterday. Without those doses, many of the people who have received their first shots will not get their second within the recommended time window, potentially threatening their immunity. In addition, the WHO says, Africa needs another 200 million doses to vaccinate even 10% of the continent's population by September. At least in the short term, with vaccine supplies tight and local manufacturing capabilities limited, donations from wealthy countries may be Africa's best hope at reaching those targets.
Manitoba, Canada, is now North America's COVID-19 hotspot, apparently due to people prematurely abandoning public health precautions, the New York Times reports. About 35 of every 100,000 Manitoba residents are testing positive for the virus each day, compared to Canada's current national rate of 10 per 100,000. (The rate in the U.S. is seven people per 100,000.)
Only about 11% of Russians have received a COVID-19 vaccine—but their pets may soon be able to get one, the Wall Street Journal reports. Russian scientists have developed a vaccine, called Carnivac-Cov, that reportedly produces antibodies in cats, dogs, foxes and mink. COVID-19 infections have been detected in some mammals—Denmark last year culled much of its mink population after an outbreak—but they don't seem to spread the disease to humans.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 33.2 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 593,000 people have died. On May 27, there were 27,525 new cases and 1,338 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
No one knows exactly how many people need to get vaccinated to reach herd immunity, but covering 70% of the U.S. adult population has become a major goal in the vaccine rollout. A new KFF poll suggests that goal may be in reach. Slowly but surely, the number of people saying they want to "wait and see" how the vaccine affects others is shrinking. Sixty-two percent of U.S. adults have now gotten at least one dose, KFF says, and only 12% of the population now plans to wait and see. That means 70% vaccine coverage may be possible within the next few months.
Kids may be able to go bare-faced at camp this summer, after the CDC today updated previous, controversial guidance that said all staff members and campers should remain masked. The new guidelines say fully vaccinated adolescents can go maskless, and even unvaccinated campers can usually go mask-free outdoors. Kids who have not yet gotten their shots are still encouraged to wear masks inside and in crowded outdoor areas.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of May 28, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
India's Logistical Failures Are Endangering the World
In this column for TIME, Debasish Roy Chowdhury argues that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's failure to buy enough vaccine doses for his country could have trickle-down effects that leave much of the developing world vulnerable to COVID-19. Read more here.
China's Response to the 'Lab Leak' Theory Keeps Debate Dragging On
The idea that COVID-19 escaped from a lab in China is once again in the news—but as TIME's Charlie Campbell reports, Beijing's obfuscation and aggressive response to the investigations may only prolong debate. Read more here.
Will the Housing Market Ever Stabilize?
If you've spent any time on Zillow recently, you know the housing market is wild. But for how long will that be the case? Derek Thompson investigates for The Atlantic. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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