SARS-CoV-2 has proven to be nimble, with variants of the original virus appearing around the world—most notoriously the B.1.1.7 strain, which emerged in the U.K, and B.1.351, first identified in South Africa. The bad news is that the virus is sure to go right on spinning out more variants; the good news, as a collection of new studies shows, is that existing vaccines are doing a good job of keeping up with these strains.
As my colleague Alice Park reports, a Phase 2 study conducted in South Africa and just published in the New England Journal of Medicine , showed that the Novavax vaccine is 51% effective in protecting against the B.1.351 strain. That number seems low compared to the efficacy rate of other vaccines, but as Shabir Madhi, professor of vaccinology at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, and the senior author of the study, told Alice, "We need to recalibrate the expectations for this first generation of COVID-19 vaccines, especially for countries [like South Africa] where B.1.351 dominates. In these situations it's no longer important for a country to get to so-called herd immunity." Rather, he says, the vaccine could be extremely useful in stemming more severe disease in vulnerable people like the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.
The Novavax vaccine has already been proven effective in the U.K., where a Phase 3 study, with results released in March, showed it to be 96% effective in protecting people against COVID-19 symptoms and 86% effective against the B.1.1.7 variant in particular. Novavax has not yet filed for emergency use authorization in the U.S., but it is expected to do so soon.
In other positive findings, a study published yesterday in The Lancet looked at the results of the first four months of Israel's push to vaccinate 6.5 million people 16 years old and up. The study surveyed the overall effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine against circulating SARS-CoV-2—which was significantly composed of the B.1.1.7 strain; 94.5% of recorded COVID-19 infections in the study were of the variant—and reported a success rate of 95.3% in terms of protecting against COVID-19 disease.
Even more impressive is another study published yesterday, this one in the New England Journal of Medicine, conducted in Qatar, that looked at the efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech shot against both leading variants. The study was done in March, when 50% of cases in Qatar were being caused by the B.1.351 strain and 44.5% by the B.1.1.7. The shot was shown to be 89.5% effective against the latter variant and 75% against the former. Significantly, against both strains it was a remarkable 97.4% effective in protecting against severe, critical or fatal disease.
Certainly, the battle against the variants is not over. As long as SARS-CoV-2 is at large it will continue mutating like any virus does. Encouragingly though, the arsenal of vaccines already arrayed against it appear to be able to deal with the shapeshifting it's tried so far.
VACCINE TRACKER
About 321.5 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of May 5, of which 249.5 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 32.3% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
In other positive findings concerning variants, Moderna is reporting success in the first trials of booster doses aimed at providing protection against emerging strains, as my colleague Alice Park reports. One successful approach Moderna tried involved adding a third dose of the existing vaccine, at half the dosage of the shots currently in use; the other involved adding to the current two-shot regimen a third dose of a new vaccine the company developed specifically against the B.1.351 variant.
Support is growing for waiving intellectual property protections on COVID-19 vaccines, the Associated Press reports. Today France joined the U.S. in endorsing the move, with pressure growing on other wealthy nations in the European Union to follow suit. But challenges remain. Even without patent protections, the vaccines may be beyond the manufacturing ability of some poorer countries, making donations of shots a more practical approach to getting those populations inoculated. The World Trade Organization (WTO) could also scuttle the plan, with any single country in the 164-member body having the power to block such an action.
One more hurdle to waiving intellectual property rights on vaccines: the stock market. As Reuters reports, shares of Pfizer, Moderna, Novavax and BioNTech all fell between 2% and 6% before the bell this morning in anticipation of patents being lifted on the companies' shots. Some industry watchers believe that market reaction will raise the likelihood of resistance at the WTO, as revenues the companies had expected to earn from licensing the patents shrink or vanish altogether. The pharmaceutical industry, a powerful global lobby and a lucrative sector in national economies, has already criticized the proposed waiver move.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 155.2 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 3.2 million people have died. On May 5, there were 840,999 new cases and 14,200 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2.5 million confirmed cases:
The suffering in India is continuing unabated—and if anything is growing worse. This morning the country reported 412,431 new cases in the previous 24 hours, a new single-day record, according to TIME's COVID-19 dashboard. That occurred along with 3,980 deaths, also a record—and the ninth consecutive day with more than 3,000 deaths. India has reported nearly 8.4 million new cases in just the last 30 days.
Even as case counts and deaths rates rise in India, vaccination rates—already poor—are declining, reports The New York Times. Today, the Indian government announced that it had vaccinated just under 2 million people during the previous day, a significant drop from the average of 3.5 million daily doses it was administering in March. And that was on a relatively good day, at least compared to the past week, when there was an average of just 1.6 million daily vaccinations in a country of 1.4 billion people.
Tens of thousands of people in Japan have signed an online petition calling for the Tokyo Olympics to be canceled, the Associated Press reports. The growing resistance comes as the country remains under a pandemic state of emergency that is set to be lifted May 11, but could be extended because a current surge in cases has yet to be brought under control. Current polling in Japan shows 70% to 80% of respondents say they want the Olympics to be canceled, but with the games set to start on July 23, there is no indication that Olympic officials intend to heed the public sentiment.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 32.5 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 579,000 people have died. On May 5, there were 44,510 new cases and 776 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
A new poll by the KFF health policy group has mixed news for vaccine uptake in the U.S. The share of adults who have gotten at least one dose of a vaccine or say they intend to do so as soon as possible rose slightly from 61% to 64% from March to April. Meanwhile, the share who say they want to wait and see before being vaccinated fell slightly, from 17% to 15%, over the same period. Black and Latinx adults are slightly more likely than whites to take the wait and see approach (19%, 18%, and 13%, respectively). Discouragingly, the share of adults who say they will definitely not be vaccinated or will do so only if required has stayed relatively unchanged since January, at 19%. Partisan politics continue to play a role too, with 80% of Democrats polled reporting that they have already gotten at least one shot or intend to do so, compared to 59% of Independents and 55% of Republicans.
California's Alcoholic Beverage Control department announced yesterday that it had arrested the owner of the Old Corner Saloon in the community of Clements for selling fraudulent COVID-19 vaccination cards. Undercover agents had received reports of the scam and were able to purchase some of the counterfeit cards in April, before moving in for the arrest. According to CNN, the bar owner faces three felony charges: carrying an unregistered firearm, forgery of a government seal, and identity theft of the names of Pfizer, CVS and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In fresh signs that the U.S. economy continues to rebound from its COVID funk, the Department of Labor today reported that just 498,000 initial unemployment claims were filed in the past week; that's a drop of 92,000 from the preceding week, for the lowest total since the start of the pandemic. At the same time, according to Reuters, employers in April reported the lowest number of layoffs since 2000. But one hangover from the COVID-19 recession continues, with 16.2 million people still collecting unemployment checks.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of May 6, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Comfy in Quarantine
While most people are chafing at lockdowns and ready for them to be lifted, Katherine Wu explains in The Atlantic that others may suffer from a sort of COVID-19 inertia and be unwilling—or even unable—to shake off the restrictions. Read more here.
Working Women Left Behind?
Some 3 million American women left the workforce in 2020, and only about half that number have returned. Here, New York magazine explores a "sexist backlash" that may make it harder for the remaining women to get back on the job. Read more here.
Restaurants Bouncing Back
As Americans return to indoor dining, the Wall Street Journal predicts that the experience may not be quite the same, with digital checks, smaller menus and expanded outdoor dining sticking around. One big plus: better health care for workers. Read more here.
Face to Face
A year in which we both covered our faces in public and put them on "sustained and exaggerated display" on Zoom may forever change the way we look at one another, says Paul Elie in the New Yorker. Read more here.
Where Olympians Run Free
As my colleague Sean Gregory reports, even as Japan debates whether to hold the Olympics at all, there is one place things feel completely normal: Australia, where Olympic surfers are training—and where effective contact tracing and early travel restrictions have kept the pandemic under control. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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