Exactly how prevalent is the Omicron variant in the U.S.? It's an urgent public health question, given that its distinctive qualities—it seems to cause milder disease, yet spread much more easily—necessitate a different way of thinking about personal and societal risks. It's also a hard one to answer in real time, given the time required for samples to be sequenced and reported.
Just before Christmas, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said Omicron accounted for an estimated 73% of the country's most recent cases. That figure, which represented a jaw-dropping sixfold increase in just a week's time, took hold in our minds and has guided our collective thinking about the current state of the pandemic ever since. But about a week later, the CDC revised its initial estimate all the way down to 23%—meaning while we were all focused on Omicron, Delta, a nastier, more deadly variant, was still the main threat.
However, in the weeks since, researchers have had more time to understand how Omicron is actually spreading through the population. That kind of real-world data is exactly what they need to improve their modeling, and so their latest estimates are likely more reliable. And what do those estimates say? Omicron is basically everywhere, responsible for about 95% of new U.S. cases. That largely holds true across the country, although some regions, like New England and the Midwest, are still dealing with a decent amount of Delta, seen below in gray on the pie charts:
Still, these latest data are what the CDC calls a "Nowcast"—essentially a model that estimates the current situation based on previous trends. The most recent actual data are from the week ending Dec. 28, when Delta still represented nearly 62% of cases. While it's clear that Omicron is trending towards a nationwide takeover, we can't yet be fully sure that has already happened; it’s possible the latest Nowcast figures could eventually be revised downward once the surveillance and sequencing work is done. Indeed, there are signs that Delta has not fully left us: it still represents nearly 40% of new cases at the testing center at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., for instance.
Many of us, from lawmakers to school officials to everyday Americans, have recalibrated our thinking about the pandemic based on a sense that we're now dealing with a milder form of the virus—and one that transmits so easily that exposure seems more or less inevitable. What's less clear is how many people understand that such thinking is based on preliminary data subject to later revision. The CDC's Nowcast is a tremendously useful public health tool, but it can't be anything more than an estimate. The more cautious among us—including the immunocompromised and others at high risk—would be wise to proceed as if Delta is still among us, at least until more conclusive data comes in.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
More than 615 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of yesterday afternoon, of which more than 507.6 million doses have been administered, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 62% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
More than 295.1 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 12 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 5.4 million people have died. On Jan. 4, there were more than 2.5 million new cases and 7,256 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 5 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded more than 57 million coronavirus cases as of 12 a.m. E.T. today. More than 830,000 people have died. On Jan. 4, there were more than 859,200 new cases and 2,323 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending in terms of cases:
And in terms of deaths:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Jan. 5, 12 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The CDC has updated its new isolation guidance to say that people in isolation who want to test themselves before leaving can do so, but such a step is not required. "If an individual has access to a test and wants to test, the best approach is to use an antigen test towards the end of the 5-day isolation period," reads the new language. "If your test result is positive, you should continue to isolate until day 10. If your test result is negative, you can end isolation, but continue to wear a well-fitting mask around others at home and in public until day 10." The change comes as the agency has come under fire for shortening the recommended isolation period amid a major spike in cases, and for not recommending that all people in isolation first test negative before heading back into the world.
In the latest high-stakes pandemic-related battle between school officials, teachers and parents, Chicago officials closed the city's public schools today after teachers voted to stay home and shift their classes online, the New York Times reports. The teachers say they're protesting against working in person during a major viral spike, while Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot framed their decision as an illegal strike, and said a sudden shift to remote learning would be overly disruptive for parents "who can’t afford the luxury of staying home." Of course, with classes canceled entirely, that disruption arrived regardless, and similar fights are likely to play out in other districts across the country in the coming days and weeks.
U.S. retailers Walmart and Kroger are hiking the price of Abbott's BinaxNOW at-home rapid tests after a deal with the White House to sell them at reduced cost of $14 for a two-pack expired, the companies said yesterday, per the Wall Street Journal . Walmart plans to sell that pack for about $20, while it now lists at Kroger for about $24. The price hikes will put such tests even further out of reach for low- and middle-income Americans, who are often at greater risk of exposure due to their jobs or living situations. However, the Biden Administration has promised to make at-home tests freely available online starting this month, and private insurers will soon be required to reimburse covered Americans who buy them out of pocket; both steps could help get more tests to more people, a necessary step to help curb viral spread.
A variant discovered in the French Alps this past November that's gaining renewed attention on social media this week is not a major cause for concern, World Health Organization officials said yesterday. The variant "has been on our radar," a WHO COVID-19 incident manager said at a press conference yesterday, but added that "the virus had a lot of chances to pick up" yet has failed to do so, a sign that it won't go global the way Delta or Omicron have.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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