Omicron Could Be the Beginning of the Pandemic’s End
The COVID-19 pandemic has made it infuriatingly tough to predict the future. But at this point, experts have a pretty good idea of two ways the pandemic could go from here. In her new piece, my colleague Alice Park explores two such scenarios. As she explains, the emergence of Omicron could either suggest that COVID-19 is on the way out and is gradually becoming less deadly—like other viruses that came before it—or that the virus could continue to evolve in more dangerous ways.
The odds aren’t exactly comforting. Jeremy Farrar, president of the global health research foundation Wellcome Trust, predicts there’s only a 40 to 50% chance that Omicron will be the last gasp of the pandemic; the odds aren’t higher because the variant is especially good at evading the immune system, he says. However, as Alice explains, our experience with Omicron proves that there are two very important strategies for getting a handle on the virus: tracking it better and getting as many people as possible vaccinated.
Alice notes that Omicron’s successor could already be circulating, and the world will need to expand surveillance and genetic sequencing in order to detect mutations like those that made Omicron so contagious. Understanding mutations could help scientists improve treatment and vaccination efforts, and officials could use that knowledge to better implement interventions, like geographically targeted lockdowns, to stop dangerous variants from spreading.
The public also has an important role to play in stopping new variants from emerging. By getting vaccinated, people can help prevent the virus from evolving. As Alice writes, “Every variant in the virus’s short two-year history is the direct result of unchecked viral replication, so the surest way to turn COVID-19 from a pandemic into an endemic disease is to shut down as many of those opportunities as possible.”
More than 358.2 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 3 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 5.6 million people have died. On Jan. 25, there were over 3.2 million new cases and 8,998 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending, in terms of cases:
And in terms of deaths:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 5 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded nearly 72.2 million coronavirus cases as of 3 a.m. E.T. today. Nearly 872,000 people have died. On Jan. 25, there were more than 429,510 new cases and 2,911 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending in terms of cases:
And in terms of deaths:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Jan. 26, 12 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The Biden Administration withdrew a rule that would have mandated employees at large companies to get vaccinated against COVID-19 or be tested regularly, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) confirmed yesterday. The mandate had faced multiple legal challenges from states and businesses, and on Jan. 13, the Supreme Court ruled that the plan was unconstitutional (although it upheld a separate rule for health care workers.)
Omicron is driving a major surge of infections in kids. More than 1.1 million COVID-19 cases in children were reported during the week ending Jan. 20, a 17% increase from the week before and almost five times last winter’s peak, according to a new report from the American Academy of Pediatrics. Kids made up about 26% of all cases reported that week, as well as 18% of all cases reported during the pandemic. Among the 24 states (plus several other cities and U.S. territories) that provided data, kids accounted for up to 4% of all hospitalizations, and 0.1% to 1.5% of all cases in kids led to hospitalization.
An Australian naval shift carrying disaster supplies docked in Tonga today after 23 people on board tested positive for COVID-19, the New York Times reports. The H.M.A.S. Adelaide was carrying helicopters, medical equipment and humanitarian supplies to Tonga, which experienced a major volcanic eruption two weeks ago. About 60% of Tongans are fully vaccinated, and only one person in the country has ever tested positive for COVID-19. Tonga has maintained tough traveling requirements, including a ban on foreign visitors and a three-week quarantine for anyone arriving from outside the country, according to NPR.
New York State’s indoor mask mandate will stay in place after a judge yesterday temporarily blocked Monday’s lower court ruling that the requirement is against the State’s constitution, per the New York Times. The earlier ruling caused confusion in the state. While some schools told parents their mask mandates would stay in place, others said that they would make masks optional.
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Today's newsletter was written by Tara Law and edited by Mandy Oaklander.
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