Since the early days of the pandemic, China has followed a strict "zero COVID" strategy, with leaders there leveraging the immense power of the state to contain buildings, neighborhoods and even entire cities to curb potential outbreaks before they explode. In terms of preventing illness, the country's efforts have been remarkably effective: China, a country of nearly 1.5 billion people, has reported fewer than 5,000 deaths (though critics say that number is likely an undercount).
But China's containment strategy is about to be tested in a huge way, as my colleague Alice Park reports: thousands of athletes, coaches and other visitors from around the world are about to enter China for the Winter Olympics, which are set to begin in and around Beijing on Feb. 4. Chinese and Olympic officials are going to great lengths to prevent Games-related outbreaks. Athletes and team staffers must be tested before departing for China, and then they must be tested again upon arrival. If cleared to stay, they will remain in a "pseudo bubble," Alice reports, where they'll be kept separate from the general Chinese population, tested daily and isolated if they test positive at any point until they test negative twice with at least 24 hours between tests. (Some athletes, including National Hockey League players, have decided to skip this year's Games rather than risk getting stuck in isolation.)
Still, as Alice points out, that strategy isn't foolproof. Surely the thousands of athletes about to descend on Beijing will have some contact with locals, like bus drivers and hotel staffers, increasing the chance that any undetected virus they might be carrying spills over into the broader community. "The bigger the bubble, the more opportunity you have for something to go wrong,” one expert told Alice. “And it’s more difficult when you have something so transmissible like Omicron.” The Olympics have not even begun, and already officials in Beijing are ramping up testing efforts after a handful of reported cases.
An Olympics outbreak would be embarrassing for China on the world stage, of course. But it would also be the best evidence yet that, given Omicron's relatively high transmissibility, zero COVID is about as futile as inbox zero. Other, more liberal countries that were running the zero COVID playbook, like New Zealand, are already giving up that strategy amid Omicron-fueled spikes; it's probably only a matter of time before all but the most isolated countries experience a major wave. And even if China avoids a Games-related outbreak, it may only be further delaying the inevitable.
"Countries are going to have to accept a period of high transmission in communities,” another expert told Alice. "And I think that is the path that China will ultimately have to go through."
More than 351.3 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 3 a.m. E.T. today, and nearly 5.6 million people have died. On Jan. 23, there were over 2.2 million new cases and 4,800 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending, in terms of cases:
And in terms of deaths:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 5 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded more than 70.7 million coronavirus cases as of 3 a.m. E.T. today. More than 866,500 people have died. On Jan. 23, there were more than 204,800 new cases and 572 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending in terms of cases:
And in terms of deaths:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Jan. 24, 12 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The U.S. Omicron outbreak is "going in the right direction right now," White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said on ABC's This Week yesterday, pointing to rapidly falling case counts in the northeast and midwest. Cases should soon peak in other parts of the country as well, he added, although how fast that happens depends on factors like local vaccination rates and containment measures. Areas of the country with relatively lower vaccination rates should also expect comparatively more pain in terms of hospitalization and death rates, Fauci said.
Police in Brussels, Belgium used water cannons and tear gas yesterday to disperse protestors marching against that country's latest vaccination requirements and other pandemic rules, the Associated Press reports. At least 15 people were hospitalized amid the skirmish, while 70 were detained, police said. Similar demonstrations have broken out across Europe, as well as in Washington, D.C. and elsewhere as the pandemic drags into its third year and more people tire of on-again, off-again public health restrictions.
Others, however, are accepting the reality of the pandemic with more grace—including New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who's canceling her wedding festivities amid an Omicron-fueled outbreak in the southwestern Pacific island nation. New Zealand may be reporting as many as 1,000 new cases a day in a few weeks, Ardern predicted, a major spike for a country that was until recently committed to a strict zero-COVID strategy. "My wedding won’t be going ahead, but I just joined many other New Zealanders who have had an experience like that as a result of the pandemic,” Ardern, 41, told reporters yesterday. "Such is life."
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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