2020年5月8日 星期五

The Coronavirus Brief: The danger of imperfect tests

And more of today's pandemic news |

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Presented By   Goldman Sachs
Friday, May 8, 2020
BY JAMIE DUCHARME

COVID-19 Testing Flaws Are Keeping People From Getting the Care They Need

On paper, Kerri Rawson never tested positive for COVID-19. But the Florida-based writer, who shared her story with writer Zach Schonfeld, says that doesn’t mean she never had it.

Rawson’s situation is not uncommon. Testing was difficult to access in the early weeks of the U.S. outbreak, which means many people who got sick in February and March never learned whether they actually had the novel coronavirus. Others did get tested, but received results they believe to be false negatives—as is the case for up to 30% of patients, according to some preliminary research.

Rawson’s story spans those two scenarios. She developed a fever in late February, which progressed into high blood pressure and shortness of breath over the next couple weeks. Doctors tested her for “everything under the sun,” she told Schonfeld—except COVID-19. She didn’t get a coronavirus test until mid-March, weeks after she began exhibiting symptoms. Even then, she tested negative. (Rawson believes the test was administered incorrectly, since the nasal swab caused her nose to bleed heavily.)

For months, experts have said over and over that the U.S. needs better testing capacity to truly know how many people in the U.S. have COVID-19, and to enact containment policies accordingly. That’s still true. But as stories like Rawson’s illustrate, testing isn’t perfect. An incorrectly performed or poorly timed test can lead to inaccurate or confusing results, leaving patients and doctors to wonder how or if symptoms need to be treated. Even antibody testing, which is meant to determine whether the body has cleared a COVID-19 infection, isn’t totally reliable.

The question is how to scale up testing, improve its accuracy and get care for everyone who needs it, all at once. The answer, unfortunately, isn’t yet clear.

Read more here.


TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK

The Situation in the United States

The total number of COVID-19 diagnoses in the U.S. rose to more than 1,257,000 as of 8 PM eastern time yesterday, and the death toll surpassed 75,000.

The U.S. lost more than 20 million jobs in April alone, enough to erase almost all of the job creation achieved since the 2008 recession and to leave almost 15% of Americans unemployed, according to federal data. That’s the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. Perhaps even more stunning, it’s an underestimate, if anything. Many people who lost their jobs in April and did not try to find new ones were not counted in the unemployment rate. All told, only about half of working-age Americans have a job right now, government data published today show.

More and more states are reopening, often against public-health guidance, in large part to minimize these economic consequences. In Ohio, businesses including restaurants, beauty salons and barber shops may begin gradually reopening starting May 15, Governor Mike DeWine announced yesterday.

In New York City, where lockdowns remain in place, police officers have sparked criticism for their handling of social-distancing violations. Over the past few weeks, New York City police officers have used force to break up several incidents involving people—disproportionately those of color—who were not following public-health protocol. “We cannot police our way out of a pandemic,” police accountability attorney Jennvine Wong told TIME reporter Josiah Bates.

Finally, President Donald Trump’s personal valet tested positive for coronavirus, raising concerns that Trump may have been exposed to the virus. The White House said yesterday that both Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have tested negative for the virus and remain healthy.

The Global Situation

More than 3.8 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 8 PM eastern time last night, and almost 270,000 had died.

Here is every country with over 40,000 confirmed cases:

Peter Ben Embarek, a World Health Organization (WHO) scientist who specializes in zoonotic disease, said today that COVID-19 appears to have originated in bats and can infect cats, though he cautioned that more research is needed. Ben Embarek said wildlife markets—like the one in Wuhan that likely played a role in the virus’ spread to humans—should not be shut down, but do need to be better regulated to ensure food safety.

Countries in Asia continue their reopening processes, in hopes that the worst of the pandemic has passed. Disneyland Shanghai is set to reopen May 11 at one-third its normal 80,000-person capacity, and up to 1,000 baseball fans are now allowed to watch professional games in Taiwan—as long as they don’t sit directly beside other spectators and don’t bring in any outside food.

Many countries, however, remain far from that point. The hard-hit U.K. is expecting to see its largest economic drop in three centuries this year, as the virus continues to keep life at a standstill. Also in the U.K., the notoriously secretive street artist Banksy created a new work to honor health care workers. It was unveiled at Southampton General Hospital on Wednesday with the note, “Thanks for all you’re doing. I hope this brightens the place up a bit, even if [it’s] only black and white.”

Coronavirus cases are also climbing in Brazil, but President Jair Bolsonaro continues to downplay the severity of the virus. He recently told reporters that he plans to host a 30-person barbeque at his home tomorrow.

All numbers are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of May 7, 8 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.


WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW

Coronavirus Is Making Americans Lonelier Than Ever

America’s loneliness epidemic has hidden in plain sight for years. Coronavirus is both making it worse—and bringing it out of the shadows. Read more here.

Hydroxychloroquine Fails to Help Coronavirus Patients

The anti-malarial drug previously touted by President Trump as a possible COVID-19 cure failed to improve coronavirus patients’ conditions in the largest study on it to date. Read more here.

Coronavirus Could Cause Millions of People to Go Hungry

COVID-19 has had a profound impact on the global food supply chain, making it difficult for producers to grow, harvest, package and sell their goods. The result could be not only economic hardship, but also a hunger crisis. Read more here.

‘Somebody Has to Be the First’: Youth Sports Resume This Weekend, Despite Warnings

Youth baseball teams in Missouri and Nevada will take the field this weekend—a decision drawing praise and criticism in almost equal measure. Read more here.

People Are Fantasizing About Walking Down the Aisle

But it’s not just engaged couples. In a meme making the rounds on social media, people are fantasizing about walking down aisles of every kind when society reopens, from airplanes to beauty stores to movie theaters. See more here.

What Will This Summer Look Like?

On their podcast, STAT reporters tackle the question on everyone’s mind: will summer 2020 be lost to COVID-19? Listen here.


Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.

If you were forwarded this and want to sign up to receive it daily, click here.

Today’s newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Elijah Wolfson.

 
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