The COVID-19 Testing Model That Could Save Thousands of Lives
In the absence of data that accurately show who has been infected with the coronavirus, policymakers are essentially flying blind as they try to contain the disease while simultaneously moving to safely re-open their economies.
It’s not enough to only try and test for how many people are currently infected, says Andrea Galeotti, a professor of economics at the London Business School. If governments want to tailor targeted policies to re-open regions and prevent subsequent waves of infection, they need to develop a testing program that focuses on detecting COVID-19 antibodies—which would show how many people have been infected since the start of the pandemic. Such a program should also test a representative sample of the population, while also gathering information on demographic characteristics such as age, gender, number of children, type of working sector, skills, social and working associations, Galeotti writes.
There’s a lot to learn from these data—from knowing who are the most prevalent carriers of the disease and subsequently the key to defusing outbreaks, to knowing which regions COVID-19 has been most prevalent in. “If we learn something about what has happened in the last five months, we can use this information to feed into the policy making of today,” says Galeotti, whether it’s deciding how to re-open the economy and which sectors to target first or how to allocate tests efficiently.
“What’s lacking now in many countries is that policymakers are not properly informed,” Galeotti says. While this was justifiable earlier on as the pandemic first struck, now countries can and should base their decisions on reliable data.
This week’s TIME100 Talks will feature Jared Kushner, Senior Advisor to the President of the United States, in conversation with TIME Senior White House Correspondent Brian Bennett. Kushner will discuss the U.S. response to COVID-19 and how the administration plans to support American businesses and the economy.
The conversation will take place Tuesday, May 12, 2020 at 4:00 PM ET.
The total number of COVID-19 diagnoses in the U.S. rose to more than 1,329,000 as of 8 PM eastern time yesterday, and the death toll surpassed 79,000.
The White House today called for everyone to wear masks when entering the West Wing, following two recent positive COVID-19 diagnoses involving those who work at the complex. Three key members of the White House Coronavirus task force, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Robert Redfield, and Stephen Hahn are self quarantining after coming into contact with a person who tested positive for COVID-19. All three were expected to testify in-person tomorrow before a Senate committee hearing about safely getting back to work and school but will now be allowed to appear by videoconference.
As unemployment skyrockets in the U.S., Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned yesterday on Fox News Sunday that not reopening the economy could lead to “permanent economic damage to the American public.” “If we do this carefully, working with the governors, I don’t think there’s a considerable risk,” Mnuchin said. But many experts have urged both caution and patience before reopening to prevent a worsening of the outbreak.
Today, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo declared that many upstate areas would be allowed to partially reopen this weekend, allowing for some construction, manufacturing and curbside retail, the New York Times reports. But, New York City is not likely to follow suit anytime soon; Mayor Bill de Blasio said the widespread shutdown of nonessential businesses would probably not end before June.
The Global Situation
More than 4.1 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 8 PM eastern time last night, and more than 282,700 had died.
Here is every country with over 40,000 confirmed cases:
Yesterday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveiled a plan to gradually restart the economy and requested those in the U.K. to return to their places of employment if they can’t work from home. Critics have said Johnson’s guidance to “go to work” while observing social distancing and avoiding public transport if possible is hard to follow and potentially dangerous in dense cities like London.Some 32,000 people have died in Britain from the coronavirus; that’s the second highest COVID-19 death toll worldwide, trailing behind only the U.S.
India is also preparing to loosen coronavirus restrictions despite reporting more than 4,200 new COVID-19 cases over the past 24 hours—its highest daily increase to date. Train services, which were previously halted in late March, are expected to gradually resume from Tuesday. India now has more than 67,000 coronavirus cases.
Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that starting Tuesday, a national non-working period that has been in place will come to an end, but noted that “the fight with the epidemic is not ending,” the Times reported.
Germany and South Korea, which have both been praised for their rigorous testing and detection measures and relatively lower death tolls, are now facing the possibility of a dreaded second wave of infections. Seoul shut down thousands of nightlife businesses after dozens of infections were linked to clubgoers. In Germany, three slaughterhouses had coronavirus outbreaks; at one facility, 180 workers tested positive for COVID-19.
Wuhan, where the global pandemic began, reported its first new infections since ending its lockdown on April 8. The numbers were few; six locally transmitted cases were reported on Saturday and Sunday and found in people already under quarantine.
Even elephants are out of work because of the coronavirus pandemic. Commercial elephant camps and sanctuaries in Thailand, struggling due to the lack of tourists, decided to send more than 100 elephants back to their natural habitats.
All numbers are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of May 10, 8 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
Goldman Sachs' new video series featuring insights on the implications of COVID-19 across markets, industries and the global economy.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
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Pivoting From Producing Gowns to Masks
Fashion designer Christian Siriano and his team of 10 full-time seamstresses now make about 2,000 masks daily to donate to health care workers. “I don’t think that fashion will mean the same thing after this,” he says. Read more here.
Phone Calls From the Hungry, Homeless and Scared
A Miami crisis hotline that serves the city’s most vulnerable residents is fielding double the usual number of calls. They are hearing from people who are hungry and homeless, as well as those wrestling with mental health issues and individuals trying to escape abusive situations. Read more here.
Deciding to Stick With Gray
Sally Susman, executive vice president and chief corporate affairs officer of Pfizer, says she may never color her hair again. “Against the backdrop of life-and-death decisions made every hour during this coronavirus pandemic, my question must seem trivial. But, for me, it’s a meaningful, potentially pivotal call,” Susman writes for TIME. Read more here.
A Nurse Raced to Treat a ‘Code Blue’ COVID-19 Patient and Died 14 Days Later
Celia Marcos had to make a quick decision when responding to a ‘code blue’ coronavirus patient: rush into his room while wearing only a thin surgical mask or wait to find an N95. She chose the former. The Los Angeles Times tells her story. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today’s newsletter was written bySanya Mansoor and edited by Jennifer Duggan.
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