There’s been no shortage of models predicting how many people will become sick or die from coronavirus. But if you’ve ever tried to peek at the methodology behind these models, you know most of them are astoundingly complex.
Chris Wilson, TIME’s director of data journalism, set out to create a somewhat simpler model that answers a different—but extremely relevant—question: How likely are people to violate social distancing if they go to the beach this summer?
The answer, as you’ll see from his interactive simulation, is: very likely.
Wilson’s simulation models how real people act—and how often they come into contact with one another—at the beach. He used a system called agent-based modeling to assign “personalities” to hundreds of computerized beachgoers, dictating how they behave on the sand or in the water. Using his simulation, you can change how many beachgoers commit to social distancing—under Wilson’s default settings, 75% of people try to maintain a six-foot distance from others (the social-distancing gold standard) while the remaining 25% are a little looser with public-health guidance.
Even with this fairly high rate of compliance, when 200 computerized people are let loose on a simulated four-acre stretch of Virginia Beach, they start racking up social-distancing collisions almost instantly. Even with the model set to 100% social-distancing compliance—a situation that, let’s face it, would never happen in real life—some mishaps occur just because, well, that’s what happens when 200 people move through the same limited area.
As the simulation shows, public officials have their work cut out for them as they scramble for compromises that let people enjoy summer staples without sacrificing public health. If Wilson were in charge, he says he would start small. “Say, limit capacity to 10% of what was typical last summer, and gradually open up more as we gather evidence on what it's like to enjoy the outdoors in the new world,” Wilson suggests. Another possibility, he says, would be issuing people permits that allow them to visit public places at specific times.
“I don't like the idea any more than you do,” Wilson says, “but it's much more feasible than just threatening to reclose altogether.”
More than 5.8 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 11 PM eastern time last night, and more than 360,000 people had died.
Here is every country with over 80,000 confirmed cases:
U.S. President Donald Trump said today during a briefing at the White House that the U.S. will “terminate” its relationship with the World Health Organization and direct its funding for the group elsewhere. The U.S. contributes hundreds of millions of dollars to the WHO each year—funding that Trump has been threatening to pull over what he has called a mishandled response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump has criticized the WHO for, among other things, being too trusting of Chinese data and not communicating risks like person-to-person transmission early enough.
You’ve probably read about “herd immunity,” or the point at which enough people within a community have antibodies for a given pathogen that it stops spreading rapidly within that area. For COVID-19, many experts guess that level is at least 60%. But a group of new studies, compiled and visualized by The New York Times, suggests most areas are far from reaching that target. In hard-hit New York City, for example, only about 20% of the population was thought to have antibodies as of May 2. In major cities like London, Madrid and Stockholm, estimates were even lower. Given those low figures, and uncertainty about whether COVID-19 antibodies prevent reinfections, herd immunity looks a long way off.
After briefly reopening, South Korea is reinstating aspects of its coronavirus lockdown amid a worrying spate of new cases in Seoul. Across the city and surrounding area, 500 schools are closed once again today, while parks, museums and galleries will shutter for the next two weeks.
Other countries, meanwhile, are pressing ahead with plans to reopen. In France, restrictions on trips longer than about 60 miles will lift on June 2, and some bars and restaurants will be allowed to reopen the same day. Brazil will also allow some stores and shopping centers in São Paulo to reopen Monday, even though the country's infection rate is rising sharply.
In a strange twist, authorities in India said a troop of monkeys broke into a laboratory in Meerut, a city near New Delhi in North India, and stole four blood samples taken from COVID-19 patients. It’s not clear what happened to the stolen samples, or whether the unusual band of thieves could become infected.
The Situation in the U.S.
The total number of COVID-19 diagnoses in the U.S. surpassed 1.7 million as of 11 PM eastern time yesterday, and the death toll climbed to more than 101,000.
On May 28, there were 22,577 new cases and 1,199 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
The quintessential American office is in for a big change, if employers follow new guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The guidelines are meant to help businesses welcome staff back to the workplace safely and with minimal viral spread—but they may be difficult for many employers to implement, particularly given the recent popularity of open-office floor plans. Among other measures, the CDC suggests wearing face coverings at all times, doing away with communal snacks and seating areas and erecting plastic barriers around desks when they cannot be spaced six feet apart. The CDC’s guidance could also fundamentally change urban commutes—it recommends that workers avoid using public transportation and, in a blow to years of sustainability advocacy, says driving alone is the safest way to commute.
Meanwhile, with millions of Americans still out of work and existing government aid programs about to expire, lawmakers are considering a second round of stimulus checks. Yet the first round was less than seamless: some Americans have still not received their initial stimulus payments, while others may have inadvertently thrown theirs out as junk mail, NBC News reports.
As more U.S. states move toward reopening, there are worrying signs that relaxed social distancing restrictions have already led to upticks in cases. Wisconsin on Wednesday saw a record number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths (599 and 22, respectively), two weeks after the state’s Supreme Court struck down its stay-at-home order. California has also seen a surge in cases as it begins to reopen.
In New York City, which remains on lockdown, financial stress has the city’s back against a wall. Mayor Bill de Blasio has asked for permission to borrow billions of dollars by issuing bonds, in the event he needs the money to cover the city’s operating expenses. But state leaders are wary of the plan given the city's dicey history with borrowing, which pushed it to the brink of bankruptcy in the 1970s.
In the world of sports, the Boston Marathon has been canceled for the first time in its 124-year history. The race, traditionally run on the third Monday in April, was originally postponed to September before being officially scrapped yesterday. Race organizers are now encouraging would-be participants to run 26.2 miles on their own during the week of Sept. 7-14 to collect a finisher’s medal.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of May 28, 11 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The Conditions in America’s Nursing Homes Are 'Getting Worse'
Even as health officials try to improve safety measures in nursing homes, which have been devastated by coronavirus, employees say they’re at risk whenever they report for duty. Read more here.
The Facts Don’t Support Trump’s Opposition to Voting By Mail
President Trump has come out hard against voting by mail, a strategy many states are exploring to avoid risking new infections on Election Day. Trump argues mail-in voting would invite fraud and other issues—but as TIME politics correspondent Lissandra Villa explains, the facts don’t support his arguments. Read more here.
How Larry Kramer Transformed the Relationship Between Activists and Government
Late AIDS activist Larry Kramer had a unique and complicated relationship with Dr. Anthony Fauci, who directed the National Institutes of Health’s work on AIDS during the height of the crisis—but as Fauci writes in this touching tribute, it turned into a beautiful friendship. Read more here.
Why the U.S. Needs to Invest in Contact Tracing
It may not get as much attention as testing, but contact tracing could be the key to avoiding more COVID-19 lockdowns, Andrew Joseph writes for STAT. Read more here.
How Safe Are These Summer Activities?
In case you missed it, NPR earlier this week published a handy guide regarding the safety of 14 different summer activities, from hosting a backyard gathering to vacationing with another family. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme, and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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