It was no surprise that New York City—with its dense population and massive tourism industry—became the United States’ hub for coronavirus, dominating national headlines about the pandemic for weeks on end. But all that attention on New York may have given rural areas a false sense of security just when it’s the most dangerous, writes TIME political correspondent Vera Bergengruen.
Bergengruen spoke to more than a dozen public-health officials in small cities and rural areas across the country. They told her they’re struggling to convince residents of these areas that the largely invisible threat of coronavirus is, indeed, still a threat to them—especially since President Donald Trump and some state lawmakers have said the exact opposite. But as these health officials know all too well, just because the virus has taken longer to get to remote areas doesn’t mean it never will.
“We’re so far behind the curve of the metropolitan areas,” Carol Moehrle, district director of the Idaho North Central District public health department, told Bergengruen. “We’re still waiting for our bomb to hit.”
Chris Wilson, TIME’s director of data journalism, crunched county-level data to accompany Bergengruen’s reporting, and found that many rural areas are only starting to see COVID-19 spread in their communities. Even as case counts fall in New York, they’re rising in the country as a whole. The average number of per-capita infections in rural America has risen eight-fold over the last month, according to Wilson’s analysis.
Even a small uptick in cases could be catastrophic for rural America. Many small towns and cities have limited health-care resources, particularly for intensive care. Couple that with fairly elderly populations, and the consequences could be truly dire. “We just have nothing to offer [patients],” Moehrle told Bergengruen. “No vaccines, no treatment.”
More than 3.5 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 8 PM eastern time yesterday, and more than 250,000 had died.
Here is every country with over 40,000 confirmed cases:
As tensions between the U.S. and China escalate, national security experts are growing increasingly concerned the fallout could outlast the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. President Donald Trump has accused the Chinese government of covering up the severity of COVID-19 and speculated that it purposely allowed the virus to spread, while Chinese leaders have criticized Trump’s management of the pandemic and defended their own response. If the world’s two largest economies continue feuding, experts fear a “new Cold War,” USA Todayreports.
In Europe, a new study suggests French doctors may have treated a 42-year-old man for COVID-19 in December, a month before cases of the novel coronavirus were officially reported on the continent. While the results aren’t conclusive, they add to growing suspicion that the coronavirus was circulating around the world earlier than experts originally thought.
Official figures as of this afternoon suggest the U.K. has the highest coronavirus death toll in Europe, surpassing Italy. Reports suggest more than 30,000 people in the U.K. have died from the virus, compared to about 29,000 in Italy. (These numbers don’t quite match our chart above, because the numbers in the chart are based on reported deaths as of last night, 8 PM eastern time.)
In South Korea, a return to professional sports offers an early glimpse at our global new normal. Baseball games resumed today and soccer is set to start up Friday, but teams will play in front of empty stands.
Finally, the coronavirus-stricken USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier—which landed in the headlines when its captain was fired after calling attention to a coronavirus outbreak on board—is preparing to return to sea after a quarantine period in Guam. At least 1,000 crew members are still testing positive for the virus and remain on land.
The Situation in the United States
The total number of COVID-19 diagnoses in the U.S. rose to more than 1,180,000 as of 8 PM eastern time yesterday, and the death toll inched closer to 70,000.
The White House is reportedly phasing out its coronavirus task force, which includes Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, as it shifts its priority toward reopening the country, according to the New York Times. Trump has not always followed the advice of his task force, but it still represents his Administration’s most coordinated response to the pandemic. Without it—and with no clear body set to take its place—it’s not clear how the White House will handle COVID-19 containment.
In yet another sign of economic turmoil spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. exports and imports dropped substantially in March, according to Commerce Department data published today. Exported goods and services fell by 9.6% compared to the month before, while imports dropped by 6.2%. Declines in international travel and tourism were a major contributor to the losses. There is some good economic news, though: U.S. automakers are expected to reopen their factories within the next couple weeks.
Yesterday, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo described a tiered plan for reopening his state. He said New York will open region-by-region, not all at once, since rural areas will likely be ready sooner than New York City. For each area to come out of lockdown, local hospitalizations and deaths must decline for two weeks, and health facilities must have enough personal protective equipment, bed space and testing gear, among other metrics. However, there are still signs that New York is struggling to respond to the crisis. Cuomo’s administration yesterday confirmed 1,700 previously unreported coronavirus deaths in New York nursing homes since March 1.
And in a particularly tragic sign of unrest related to coronavirus-containment measures, a Michigan security guard was fatally shot on the job after he directed a Family Dollar shopper to wear a mask while in the store, sparking an altercation with her family.
All numbers are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of May 4, 8 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
Stacy Selig of Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division discusses the growing interest in ESG as a driving investment theme during the pandemic in this episode of The Daily Check-In.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Nancy Pelosi Is Trying to Save the Economy From Coronavirus
In an adaptation from her new biography Pelosi, TIME’s national political correspondent Molly Ball breaks down the House Speaker’s fight to save the country’s economy from the threat of COVID-19. Read more here.
What the History of Polio Can Teach Us About COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in many ways, but there are still lessons to be learned from viral outbreaks of the past. Read more here.
How the Home of Tennis’ U.S. Open Became a Coronavirus Relief Center
Watch the United States Tennis Association Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City transition into a COVID-19 relief hub in this video produced as part of TIME’s partnership with journalist Katie Couric. Read more here.
The Tragic Choices of a Pandemic
It’s undeniable that people will suffer during a pandemic like COVID-19. What’s more complicated, writes law professor Philip Bobbitt, is deciding who must suffer most for the benefit of the wider public. Read more here.
What’s Going on With Antibody Testing?
Antibody tests—which can tell whether your body has been infected by and mounted an immune response to the virus that causes COVID-19—have been a big topic of conversation, particularly because it’s still not clear how accurate they are. Read more here, from Wired.
The Social Distancing Police Are Watching
The New York Times has a story on a new social phenomenon inspired by the pandemic: social-distancing shaming. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today’s newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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