New Research Explains COVID-19's Quick and Stealthy Spread
We've long known that COVID-19 spreads quickly and efficiently in part because infected people who don’t seem sick can transmit it to others. But we didn’t have a good idea of just how many cases have been caused by these so-called “asymptomatic carriers”—until now.
At least 30% and more likely 40-45% of infections may be linked to asymptomatic carriers, according to new research from the Scripps Research Translational Institute. In their review, the researchers attempted to distinguish these carriers from "pre-symptomatic” people who test positive and later show symptoms.
The analysis is cause for concern as states have reopened and many thousands of people have taken to the streets to protest police brutality in recent days, both of which have led to people getting in close contact with one another. If the rate of asymptomatic spread was lower, it would be much easier for officials to establish bright lines; in that scenario, they could say 'stay home if you feel sick.' That’s still wise advise, of course, but these data suggest that even those who don’t feel sick need to take precautions.
“The fact that nearly half of spread is from asymptomatic people isn't entirely surprising,” says TIME senior health writer Alice Park, who reported on the findings. “But it's a reminder that this virus works in particularly stealthy ways."
Equally bad, researchers have found that even if an infected person doesn’t show outward signs of illness, the virus could still be causing internal damage. Of the 331 passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship who tested positive for COVID-19 but did not have symptoms, 76 had CT lung scans, and of those, half showed signs of tissue damage.
COVID-19’s high rate of asymptomatic spread is more reason for people to follow practices proven to reduce transmission even if they’re not feeling sick, including social distancing and wearing a mask when near others. “The fact that this proportion of COVID-19 cases can be linked to asymptomatic people is sobering; that means these people and their contacts may never know that they are infected and able to spread the virus,” says Park.
The total number of COVID-19 diagnoses in the U.S. surpassed 1.8 million as of 11 PM eastern time yesterday, and the death toll climbed to more than 108,000.
On June 4, there were 21,140 new cases and 1,036 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Unemployment in the U.S. fell from 14.7% to 13.3% in May as the economy unexpectedly gained 2.5 million jobs, according to data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics today. But there are reasons to pause before celebrating the latest jobs report, writes TIME senior editor Alex Fitzpatrick. For one, unemployment is still rising for black Americans, increasing from 16.7% to 16.8%. Second, relatively minor drops in the unemployment rate could give lawmakers cover to avoid passing further economic relief, despite the fact that millions of Americans remain unemployed. Finally, if coronavirus cases spike as states reopen their economies, it could put Americans out of work once again. “Anybody getting their job back is good news,” Fitzpatrick writes. “But celebrating only the headline figures without further examining the underlying data is a mistake.”
Laboratories in the U.S. should report the race, ethnicity, sex and age of people tested for COVID-19, according to Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) guidance released yesterday. That comes after calls for more thorough data collection to better understand how the crisis is affecting different demographic groups. “High quality data is at the core of any effective public health response, and standardized, comprehensive reporting of testing information will give our public health experts better data to guide decisions at all levels throughout the crisis,” HHS Secretary Alex Azar said in a statement.
As protests against police brutality continue across the nation, some mayors are encouraging protesters to get tested for COVID-19. “It has been a real concern that people have gathered in close proximity,” New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said today.
Lastly, researchers have retracted a study on hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug touted by President Donald Trump as a possible COVID-19 treatment despite a lack of evidence. The study found that virus patients being treated with the drug had an increased risk of death compared to those who were not. “We can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources,” the study’s authors said.
The Global Situation
More than 6.6 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 11 PM eastern time last night, and more than 391,000 people had died.
Here is every country with over 100,000 confirmed cases:
The World Health Organization issued guidance today urging people to wear masks “where there is widespread transmission and physical distancing is difficult,” as WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus put it during a press conference. The guidance applies even to those not showing symptoms of coronavirus, given the research into asymptomatic spread mentioned earlier.
The European Union is aiming to lift border-crossing restrictions within the 26-nation Schengen Area by the end of the month, once again allowing free movement of people and goods across EU countries. However, restrictions on travel from outside the EU into the bloc may be extended through early July, the Associated Press reports.
Peru’s supply of medical oxygen, which is used to treat COVID-19 patients, has fallen to critical levels, the AP reports, putting lives at risk. One estimate suggests the country is producing only 20% of the 173 tons of oxygen it needs daily. The country’s president, Martín Vizcarra, has ordered that oxygen production and importing both be increased to meet demand.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of June 4, 11 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Doctors Worry About the Unprecedented Drop in E.R. Visits During the Pandemic
Emergency room visits across the U.S. were down 42% in late March and April compared to a similar period last year, according to a June 3 report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The drop-off is raising concerns that people are staying home despite needing emergency care because they're afraid of contracting COVID-19 at a hospital. Read more here.
Despite Global Reopening Push, Some Jobs Are Gone For Good
While some businesses across different sectors are reopening around the world, “many jobs just aren’t coming back,” the AP reports. The news agency interviewed a handful of people still out of work. “It was sudden. I wasn’t ready for it,” said Israeli software developer Itamar Lev. Read more here.
COVID-19 Is a Symptom of a Bigger Problem: Our Planet’s Ailing Health
“Humanity’s dysfunctional relationship with nature has caused this wider disease,” write Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment Programme, and Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, in an essay for TIME. “Understanding this root cause is critical, if we want to rise stronger after the crisis.” Read more here.
‘México Lindo y Querido, Should I Die Abroad …’
Longstanding cultural traditions have compelled some Mexicans to bring their loved ones’ remains from the U.S. back to Mexico, writes journalist Jorge Ramos for the New York Times. “Over 1,000 Mexicans have died from COVID-19 in the United States, and many of them did not want to be buried in America.” Read more here.
IN MEMORY
Sally Rowley, Freedom Rider and Jewelry Maker
Sally Rowley, a freedom rider, jewelry maker and pilot who died of COVID-19 on May 14 at age 88, “never backed down or conceded to anyone, and always stood up for her beliefs—even when she was beaten and thrown in jail for fighting for civil rights,” says Anika Pasilis, Rowley’s granddaughter. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jasmine Aguilera, and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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