2020年6月23日 星期二

The Coronavirus Brief: Why we may never know the true death toll

And more of today's COVID-19 news |

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Tuesday, June 23, 2020
BY JAMIE DUCHARME

Why We May Never Know COVID-19's True Death Toll

In April, my colleagues Alice Park and Jeffrey Kluger wrote about Lianne Kraemer, a 43-year-old woman battling terminal breast cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic. Kraemer spoke about how “mind-alteringly terrifying” it felt to know that, if she showed up at an overburdened emergency room, doctors might deem her “not worthy of care,” given her already fragile health.

Kraemer’s story may have been more extreme than most, but it captured an unsettling reality: at the height of the pandemic, almost every type of health care took a back seat to COVID-19. All but the most urgent surgeries were pushed off. Routine appointments were postponed or skipped altogether. Even very ill people were forced to choose between treating their underlying conditions or avoiding the hospital for fear of contracting the virus.

When faced with that choice, many people picked avoiding COVID-19—even, perhaps, when they should have done otherwise, according to new data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. During the first 10 weeks of the pandemic, the CDC found, about 13,000 fewer people than usual visited U.S. emergency rooms for heart attack care (23% less than usual), about 11,000 fewer came in for stroke care (20% less than usual), and about 2,000 fewer came in for care related to life-threatening diabetes complications (10% less than usual).

It’s highly improbable that 13,000 people suddenly didn’t have heart attacks when they otherwise would have, the CDC says. More likely, many people in need of care chose not to visit emergency rooms because they were afraid of COVID-19, they didn’t want to violate stay-at-home orders, or—like Kraemer—they feared they wouldn’t get the care they needed while doctors stretched to their limits were forced to make heartbreaking choices.

Others in less dire circumstances were also left to make difficult decisions that may affect their future health. Ned Sharpless, the director of the National Cancer Institute, told STAT he’s worried that thousands of delayed cancer screenings will mean more Americans will ultimately die from conditions that could have otherwise been caught early. The same is probably true of any number of chronic conditions; we probably won’t know the full extent of COVID-19’s indirect effects for years to come.

There are many things it’s smart to skip right now, for the sake of social distancing. But, to the extent possible, medical care should not be on that list. Lots of routine appointments can be conducted via telemedicine, and many doctors’ offices are again welcoming non-emergency patients (often with enhanced safety precautions). Especially if you’re experiencing severe symptoms like chest pain, altered mental state or loss of motor control, the CDC says, don’t wait to seek care—pandemic or no pandemic.

Read more here.


TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK

The Global Situation

Almost 9.1 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 11 PM eastern time yesterday, and more than 472,000 people had died.

Here is every country with over 185,000 confirmed cases:

South Korean officials believe the country is experiencing a second wave of coronavirus infections—albeit a fairly small one so far, with 17 new cases announced yesterday. South Korea effectively contained COVID-19 transmission by April, but a few clusters have since emerged, underscoring how difficult it can be to stamp out the virus without a vaccine.

The European Union is planning to reopen its borders and jumpstart its tourism industry on July 1—but not everyone may be welcome. Reporting from the New York Times suggests the EU may bar Americans, Brazilians and Russians from entering, as these countries continue to weather severe coronavirus outbreaks.

The annual Hindu Rath Yatra festival, a religious procession that usually draws more than a million people to march behind lavish chariots, will begin in a “limited way” today in India, despite surging COVID-19 case counts in the country. India’s Supreme Court previously ruled that it was too risky to hold the festival, but that decision was reversed after officials promised to scale down the celebration. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabian officials announced today that the hajj pilgrimage will also continue, though with significantly fewer participants than normal.

Meat processing plants continue to be plagued by coronavirus. The German district of Guetersloh is going back under lockdown after about 1,000 workers at a local meat processing plant contracted the virus. Meanwhile, China banned imports from a single Tyson poultry plant in Arkansas that suffered a COVID-19 outbreak. Though the policy applies only to that specific plant, insiders are worried about what the move could mean for the rest of the U.S. meat industry.

There’s more bad news from the Adria Tour, a tennis exhibition event organized by top-ranked player Novak Djokovic. After news broke yesterday that several players tested positive for coronavirus, Djokovic announced today that he, too, has the virus, but is not showing symptoms.

The Situation in the U.S.

More than 2.3 million people in the U.S. had been infected with COVID-19 as of 11 PM eastern time yesterday, and more than 120,000 had died.

On June 22, there were 32,012 new cases and 425 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.

Testifying before Congress today alongside other top U.S. health officials, Dr. Anthony Fauci said he is “cautiously optimistic” that a COVID-19 vaccine will be available by early 2021, but emphasized that the virus is still a threat in the meantime. Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also urged Americans to continue wearing masks and social distancing to help prevent excessive spread.

Fauci also addressed U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial statement claiming he told health officials to "slow down testing," as high numbers of positive results were making the U.S. look bad. "We're going to be doing more testing, not less," Fauci said. (The White House later claimed Trump was kidding when he made the remarks at a Saturday rally in Tulsa, but the President told reporters today that he was not.)

In other news, a Pennsylvania State University estimate says the actual number of Americans who got sick with coronavirus in March may have been 80 times higher than what was reported, due to failures of disease testing and tracing. As many as 8.7 million people in the U.S. (many of them asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic) may have been sick with COVID-19 in March, according to the researchers’ calculations. "Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus' lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially," said Justin Silverman, one of the study's authors, in a statement.

Finally, Trump is using the COVID-19 pandemic as a reason to extend a ban on green cards issued outside the U.S., and to freeze the distribution of many temporary work visas. A senior official, speaking anonymously to the Associated Press, said the temporary policies could “free” more than 500,000 jobs for Americans.

All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of June 22, 11 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.


WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW

Gilead Is Testing a New Form of Remdesivir

The antiviral remdesivir has emerged as a promising treatment for COVID-19. Now, drug maker Gilead is testing an inhalable form of the experimental therapy, which is currently available only intravenously. Read more here.

Guy Fieri: Restaurant Workers Need Us

The self-appointed “Mayor of Flavortown” spoke with TIME’s Raisa Bruner about why and how we need to support restaurant workers during the pandemic. Read more here.

Certain Hand Sanitizers Could Be Toxic, FDA Warns

Some hand sanitizers made by the company Eskbiochem contain methanol, which can be toxic when absorbed through the skin, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration says. Customers who purchased these products should stop using them immediately and seek treatment for possible methanol poisoning. Read more here.

Health Officials Are Under Siege Across America

At least two dozen public-health officials in the U.S. have retired, resigned or been fired during the pandemic, CNN reports. Many are facing threats and harassment as the COVID-19 crisis becomes increasingly politicized. Read more here.


Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.

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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.


 
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