Imagine you’re the person in charge of reopening New York City, and you look at the below chart:
Seems pretty good, right? That’s what New York officials think, too. In fact, they’re reopening the city starting today. “As many as 400,000 workers could begin returning to construction jobs, manufacturing sites and retail stores in the city’s first phase of reopening,” the New York Timesreports.
What that chart doesn’t show—what it can’t show—is whether the ongoing protests against police brutality will dramatically increase infections. It takes about 10-14 days for new infections to show up in the data, in part because of how long it takes people to get tested and for their results to be reported. That means the numbers we’re looking at above are really as much as two weeks old; it’s analogous to looking at a star in the night sky and realizing the light you’re seeing is actually thousands of years old.
New York’s protests, which began about 12 days ago, don’t seem to have caused a massive uptick in confirmed cases so far. (Many protesters have been wearing masks, gloves and eye protection, which for some of them has done the double duty of protecting against both the virus and tear gas.) But 12 days is not 14 days, meaning it’s still too early to know for sure if the demonstrations have led to significant spread. Protests aside, reopening seems to have led to spikes elsewhere in the country, including in Texas, Arizona and Florida:
Many public health experts, like National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH) boss Dr. Anthony Fauci, have been walking the fine line of acknowledging the protests’ righteousness while expressing fear that they may further spread the disease. "Every time I hear about or see the congregation of large crowds at a time and geographic area where there is active infection transmission, it is a perfect set-up for the spread of the virus in the sense of creating these blips that might turn into some surges,” Facui said in a Friday interview with Washington, D.C. radio station WTOP. “It’s a delicate balance, because the reasons for demonstrating are valid,” he added later.
It’s foolish to think New York (or anywhere else) can wait until there’s a vaccine or treatment before reopening—America lacks the economic safety net for such a pause, and there is clearly no political will for the government programs required in order to support one. And if there is a spike, the blame should not be on the protestors, but the systemic racism that has driven them into the streets. But reopening today, before we know if the virus has been spreading among demonstrators, was a mistake made on outdated data. The city that never sleeps could surely have rested a few more days, if it meant a healthier, wiser reopening.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 7 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 11 PM eastern time last night, and more than 402,000 people had died.
Here is every country with over 100,000 confirmed cases:
More than 136,000 coronavirus cases were reported globally yesterday, World Health Organization Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a press conference today, marking the highest number of new cases in a single day. Caseloads in the Americas and South Asia are growing at especially alarming rates. “Although the situation in Europe is improving, globally it is worsening,” Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said today that her country is effectively coronavirus-free, thanks in part to early lockdowns and an effective testing policy. "We have eliminated transmission of the virus for now," Ardern said. "While the job is not done, this is a milestone."
Travelers arriving in Britain must quarantine themselves for 14 days, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced Sunday, though rules for those already in the country are simultaneously being relaxed.
Israel is hitting the “emergency brake” on its reopening plans as cases unexpectedly rise, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said today. “It could be that we are already seeing the doubling of the rate of infection within 10 days,” Natanyahu said, according to The Times of Israel. “I very much hope not.”
Situation in the U.S.
The total number of COVID-19 diagnoses in the U.S. surpassed 1.9 million as of 11 PM eastern time yesterday, and the death toll climbed to more than 110,000.
On June 7, there were 22,681 new cases and 670 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
New York officials are taking steps to mitigate the risk of further viral spread due to the ongoing protests in New York City and elsewhere. The city will perform up to 35,000 tests a day, while 15 testing sites in the city will prioritize protestors, Governor Andrew Cuomo said yesterday. “We’re going to open 15 sites that are dedicated just to protesters to get a test, so you can get it on an expeditious basis,” Cuomo said. “But please get a test.”
The past few days saw the biggest weekend of air travel since the coronavirus outbreak started in the U.S., according to new Transportation Security Administration (TSA) data. The agency screened over 1.2 million passengers on Friday, Saturday and Sunday combined, though that number is still well short of the 7.5 million it screened over the same weekend a year ago.
U.S. stock markets are rising early this afternoon despite the ongoing unrest. Investors are optimistic about states reopening their economies as well as last week’s jobs report, which, while not as rosy as it may seem on first glance, was still far better than economists had expected.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of June 7, 11 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Protesting Police Brutality and Racial Oppression Is Essential Work
“Because protesters take risks for our collective wellbeing, the question then is not, ‘Should people be protesting in a pandemic?’ Rather, it remains, ‘How can we best protect our essential workers?’” argues general internist and sociologist Brooke Cunningham in an essay for TIME. Read more here.
COVID-19 Stalks Large Families in Rural America
The virus has spread particularly easily in communities with high numbers of people living in single households, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis that seeks to explain why some rural communities have been affected as badly as urban ones. “In both contexts, the virus has zeroed in on crowded homes, sometimes wiping out generations in a matter of days,” reads the story. Read more here.
When 511 Epidemiologists Expect to Fly, Hug and Do 18 Other Everyday Activities Again
The New York Times asked an impressive number of epidemiologists—people who study disease outbreaks—when they think certain elements of “normal” life will resume again. Read more here.
A Dozen Coronavirus Cases Traced to Jersey Shore ‘House Gatherings’
A handful of infections in Pennsylvania have been linked to house parties along the Jersey Shore, underscoring the risk of favorite summertime activities. Read more here.
Could Trump Turn a Vaccine Into a Campaign Stunt?
A professor of medical ethics and a professor of pediatrics worry that U.S. President Donald Trump could release a vaccine before it’s truly ready, in order to bolster his electoral prospects. “Given how this president has behaved, this incredibly dangerous scenario is not far-fetched,” they argue. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
Correction: The weekend edition of the newsletter inaccurately referred to Andrew Cuomo as the mayor of New York. Cuomo is the governor of New York. We regret the error.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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