When It Comes to COVID-19 Research, Proceed With Caution
Encouraging results from researchers looking into potential COVID-19 treatments are being hailed as a “groundbreaking development”—but recent history shows it’s worth taking these promising findings with a grain of salt.
Investigators working on the U.K.-based RECOVERY trial announced today that dexamethasone, a low-cost and widely available steroid that lowers inflammation, improved patients’ chances of surviving severe COVID-19. During the study, about 2,100 COVID-19 patients were treated with dexamethasone for 10 days. Patients on mechanical ventilation who were given dexamethasone were 35% less likely to die compared to patients on ventilators who did not get the treatment. In patients on less invasive forms of breathing support, dexamethasone decreased the risk of death by 20% while patients who did not require any respiratory help saw no improvements after taking the steroid.
Those are promising findings, and it makes sense that an anti-inflammatory drug would be effective against a disease that's most harmful when it spurs excess inflammation in the body. But there’s a big caveat: the researchers released only a summary of the data, rather than a complete, peer-reviewed paper. (The researchers said in a statement they’ll publish their full findings soon.)
It’s understandable that these researchers would want to get the news out as soon as possible, given the possibility that dexamethasone could, based on the results, save lives immediately. But some health experts are warning the public to interpret the results with caution—especially in light of a recent scandal in which two prominent medical journals, the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine, had to retract high-profile studies on potential COVID-19 treatments due to suspect data.
“It will be great news if dexamethasone, a cheap steroid, really does cut deaths by 1/3 in ventilated patients with COVID-19, but after all the retractions and walk backs, it is unacceptable to tout study results by press release without releasing the paper,” influential surgeon and author Dr. Atul Gawande wrote on Twitter this morning.
The anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine serves as a cautionary tale. A small French study from March sparked a flurry of excitement (and glowing praise from President Donald Trump) over hydroxychloroquine’s potential to treat COVID-19. But as more robust studies came out, findings began to suggest the drug is at best ineffective, and at worst potentially harmful. Eventually, the growing body of research led to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration revoking the drug’s emergency use authorization yesterday.
The hope, of course, is that no such thing happens with dexamethasone. If the drug truly works as well as the early results suggest, it could revolutionize the way severe COVID-19 is treated. But the rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic, which has spurred scientists to produce a staggering amount of work in record time, has also exposed the drawbacks of accelerating past the traditionally slow-and-steady scientific review process. Mistakes happen, and conclusions change—especially when the whole world is impatient for answers.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 8 million people around the world had been sickened by COVID-19 as of 11 PM eastern time last night, and more than 436,000 people had died.
Here is every country with over 100,000 confirmed cases:
World Health Organization Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reminded world leaders yesterday that, though many people have begun to act like the COVID-19 pandemic is behind us, about 100,000 cases are still logged each day worldwide. Most reports of new cases are coming from the Americas and South Asia, but Tedros warned all countries to stay vigilant.
Cities around the world are also demonstrating how difficult it is to truly vanquish the virus. A new outbreak in Beijing, which hadn’t recorded any new infections for about 50 days, prompted officials to reinstitute dramatic measures like travel restrictions and security checkpoints. Meanwhile, officials in Tokyo announced yesterday that they have found almost 50 new cases of coronavirus, many of which were linked to the city’s reopened nightlife districts.
New Zealand is also no longer coronavirus-free, after two women who traveled from the U.K. to see a dying family member tested positive for the virus. The women are in isolation, and their contacts are being screened for COVID-19.
In Ukraine, First Lady Olena Zelenska has been hospitalized, but is in stable condition, after contracting COVID-19. President Volodymyr Zelensky and the couple’s children have thus far tested negative.
Finally, an Italian survey has confirmed what many parents already knew: COVID-19 lockdowns are hard on kids. The survey found that lockdowns have caused many kids to feel irritable or anxious, have trouble sleeping and, for some younger children, even regress developmentally.
The Situation in the U.S.
More than 2.1 million people in the U.S. had been infected with COVID-19 as of 11 PM eastern time yesterday, and more than 116,000 had died.
On June 15, there were 19,968 new cases and 395 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Vice President Mike Pence reportedly urged governors across America to attribute new spikes in COVID-19 cases to better testing capacity—a misleading message as infection rates are climbing in nearly half of U.S. states. “Make sure and continue to explain to your citizens the magnitude of increase in testing,” Pence said yesterday on a call with governors, the New York Timesreports. “And that in most of the cases where we are seeing some marginal rise in number, that’s more a result of the extraordinary work you’re doing.”
Testing capabilities have indeed improved markedly across the U.S., allowing for better detection of mild and asymptomatic cases compared to the initial months of the pandemic. But hospitalization rates are also spiking in some states, like Texas and Arizona. That suggests that, not only are more cases being found, more people are getting seriously ill. Underscoring that message, a projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington released yesterday estimated that a total of more than 200,000 people in the U.S. could die of COVID-19 by October.
Ilhan Omar, one of Minnesota's representatives in Congress, said in a statement that her father died yesterday from complications related to COVID-19. “No words can describe what he meant to me and all who knew him. My family and I ask for your respect and privacy during this time,” she wrote.
As businesses reopen their doors to customers, some are asking patrons and employees to sign liability waivers preventing them from suing if they get sick with COVID-19 after visiting. Employers say it’s a necessary precaution, but some workers’ rights groups are concerned that staff members will be left without legal protections.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of June 15, 11 PM eastern time. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Should We Worry About China’s New Coronavirus Outbreak?
After 106 new cases of coronavirus were detected in Beijing—many of them tied to the Xinfadi wholesale food market—Chinese officials have gone into “wartime mode” to control the outbreak. How concerned should the rest of the world be? Read more here.
What It’s Like to Provide Child Care During a Pandemic
Darlene Mount, a veteran of 25 years of child care, told TIME reporter Abby Vesoulis about the ways COVID-19 had changed her job. “I can’t be hands on right now. It’s very difficult, especially if they’re crying,” she said. Read more here.
A Decade Ago, This Researcher Predicted Mayhem Would Hit the U.S. in 2020
Back in 2010, cultural evolution professor Peter Turchin predicted that widespread civil unrest would sweep the U.S. in 2020. Here, he tells TIME reporter Melissa Chan what he thinks may be coming next. Read more here.
Prisons Continue to Be COVID-19 Hotspots
The five largest COVID-19 clusters in the U.S. have spread inside correctional institutions, according to New York Times data, and the situation is only getting worse. Rates of both infection and death are skyrocketing right now in U.S. jails and prisons. Read more here.
Are More Stimulus Checks Coming?
There’s no solid answer yet—but CNET has the latest on financial aid that may be coming down the pike. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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