Anxious About the Election Results? Blame the Pandemic
One of the few upsides of the coronavirus pandemic is that it forced many U.S. states to expand the number of ways and amount of time people had to vote. Those tweaks were done in the interest of avoiding turning Election Day into a superspreader event, but also helped result in what looks like record turnout for this year’s U.S. presidential election.
As of Wednesday afternoon, it remains too early to tell whether incumbent U.S. President Donald Trump will stay in office for another four years, or if his challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, has defeated him. Anxiety-provoking as that uncertainty may be, it’s not a failure of democracy, but a testament to this year’s high participation—and the crush of mail-in ballots. About 64 million Americans voted early this year, the New York Timesreports, double the 2016 number. In-person voting, which can require standing in long lines, entering buildings and touching shared surfaces, clearly wasn’t a risk many Americans wanted to take during the worsening outbreak.
But all that early voting is a major reason why we don’t know the winner yet. Every state has its own rules about how to process early votes, which need to be processed manually. Officials in some states, like Pennsylvania and Michigan, weren’t allowed to even begin counting these votes until yesterday. While it often takes several days for a state to count all its votes even in a normal election, news organizations like the Associated Press are often able to project results much earlier—sometimes as soon as polls close—thanks in part to exit polling, which involves asking people who they voted for as they leave their polling place. But the surge of early voting this year makes exit polling less useful, partially because people voting in person are more likely to skew Republican. That, in turn, is making it harder for the AP and others to quickly project winners in some states.
These projection delays were predictable, as were President Trump’s misguided objections to the prolonged counting of mail-in ballots, which are just as valid as those cast in person on Election Day. “Must know election results on the night of the election, not days, months, or even years later!” Trump tweeted in July. Last week, he inaccurately told reporters that “it would be very, very proper and very nice if a winner were declared on Nov. 3, instead of counting ballots for two weeks, which is totally inappropriate, and I don't believe that's by our laws.”
So it wasn’t surprising that in the early hours of Nov. 4, with millions of ballots still left to be counted in several key states, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. His speech drew criticism across the political aisle, as he does not have the legal authority to ignore legitimate ballots—whether cast by mail or in person. “Neither the President nor Joe Biden can determine the outcome of the election,” one civil rights expert told my colleagues. “The voters do.” Whether the ultimate result is known in hours, days or weeks remains, mostly, anybody’s guess.
More than 47.4 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.2 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Nov. 3, there were 446,030 new cases and 7,616 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 500,000 confirmed cases:
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told U.K. lawmakers today that a new lockdown, which begins tomorrow, is needed to prevent what he has described as a “medical and moral disaster,” Reuters reports. Still, the move is unpopular with several groups, including those who say Johnson failed to lock down the country early enough, and those who oppose lockdown measures entirely. The U.K. has the highest pandemic death toll in Europe, with more than 47,000 deaths so far.
Italians are also facing tougher measures—starting tomorrow, the government will impose a longer nationwide curfew and close non-essential shops in areas where the virus is surging, the Associated Press reports. Italy has reported nearly 40,000 deaths from COVID-19 so far. At the Vatican, Pope Francis today livestreamed his weekly address from his private library, instead of speaking in front of a small crowd, as he has been doing since September; he urged his followers to heed health officials’ recommendations.
Coronavirus cases are surging in Kenya, just weeks after the government eased some of its restrictions. “It is most unfortunate, but we have, without doubt, experienced a reversal, and a serious one at that,” President Uhuru Kenyatta said in a televised address today. Kenya is lengthening and extending its nighttime curfew; it will now last from 10 p.m. until 4 a.m. through Jan. 3, 2021, CNN reports. All gatherings and political rallies are also suspended for two months. Kenya has reported nearly 60,000 cases and more than 1,000 deaths.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 9.3 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 232,600 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Nov. 3, there were 91,530 new cases and 1,130 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
The U.S. presidential election largely came down to two issues: the pandemic and the economy. Voters were deeply divided on which was more important, the New York Timesreports. Those who were more concerned with the pandemic tended to vote for former Vice President Biden, while those focused on the economy and jobs endorsed President Trump. However, many economists agree that real economic growth is impossible until the pandemic is brought under control.
Republican cattle rancher and land developer David Andahl won a seat in North Dakota’s House of Representatives yesterday—but Andahl died of COVID-19 in early October, the Washington Postreports. "He has been a public servant for many years and was looking forward to the opportunity to serve in the state legislature,” his family wrote on Facebook shortly after his death. “We are sad that his wish will not come to pass.” A special election will be held to fill the seat.
New Jersey will release more than 2,200 prisoners today because of coronavirus concerns, the New York Timesreports. In a first-of-its kind move, the releases that happen today and over the next few months will reduce the state’s prison population by 35%. Among the prisoners eligible for early release include those within a year of the end of their sentence for crimes other than murder and sexual assault.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Nov. 4, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
What It's Like to Be a Doctor Right Now
In a raw, haunting essay, Dr. Rana Awdish describes what it's like to care for an onslaught of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, and how physicians deal with the psychological aftermath. “We used to leave the room when the family would say their good-byes,” she writes. “It felt sacred, and private. Now I stand there stupidly, holding the iPad, and I don’t want to have to be the only human contact they have at the end of their life.” Read more here.
How Poor Diets Make Pandemics Worse
The U.S. pandemic death toll is partly linked to poor nutrition, which can lead to often-preventable pre-existing conditions like obesity. Here, writing in STAT, a physician and a public health expert argue that taking nutrition seriously is key to improving the health of Americans during the pandemic and beyond. Read more here.
Hand Sanitizer Clogged a Ballot Scanner in Iowa
A necessary 2020 accessory—hand sanitizer—wreaked havoc at an Iowa polling place, the Washington Post reports. When some voters used it to disinfect their hands before casting their ballots, it caused the paper to weaken, which in turn jammed ballot scanners. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Mandy Oaklander and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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