Based on What Happened in Canada a Month Ago, Thanksgiving 2020 Could Be a COVID-19 Disaster in the U.S.
For the first time since I’ve lived on my own, I’m not planning to head home to spend Thanksgiving with my parents and siblings in Pennsylvania. Since I’m currently living on the opposite coast, and as the country is experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases, I decided that the trip wouldn’t be worth the chance of picking up the virus myself or passing it to somebody I love. As a health reporter, I’ve talked to enough people who have experienced the effects of COVID-19 firsthand to have been scared straight.
But even though I know it doesn’t make sense to travel home this year, I still find myself pulled apart by two different impulses: to trust the people I know best to be careful and act accordingly, or to treat Thanksgiving as if it could be an exception to the rule in a year of social distancing. We know private social gatherings are a major driver for coronavirus cases, but it doesn’t seem like Americans are listening; nearly 2 in 5 Americans plan to attend a Thanksgiving gathering with more than 10 people, according to a Ohio State University survey.
Americans don’t have to look far for an example of how a pandemic Thanksgiving can play out. As my colleague Alex Fitzpatrick writes, Canada’s Oct. 12 Thanksgiving worsened the outbreak in the U.S.’s neighbor to the north. Dr. Laura Rosella, associate professor and epidemiologist at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, told Fitzpatrick that Canada experienced its highest coronavirus numbers two weeks after the holiday—and that can’t be explained away by increased testing, because in that same time frame, it actually became harder for some Canadians to receive tests.
To get through this Thanksgiving safely, the key might be to not assume that loved ones can be trusted, and to plan carefully and with a bit of creativity. That could mean trying to eat Thanksgiving dinner outside or staying far apart and keeping the windows open if that’s not an option. That way, we can ensure our own family members and more of our fellow Americans are still around to make it to Thanksgiving dinner next year.
More than 52.1 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.28 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Nov. 11, there were 666,955 new cases and 12,129 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 700,000 confirmed cases:
Yesterday, the United Kingdom became the first European country to record more than 50,000 coronavirus-related deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. A total of 50,457 people have died in the country, which now has the fifth most deaths from the virus in the world. The U.K. has imposed new restrictions to stop the virus from spreading, including starting a new lockdown in England last week.
Iran also passed a grim milestone, reaching 40,000 deaths from the virus as of this afternoon, according to the Johns Hopkins tracker. The country ordered a business curfew in Tehran and other major cities and towns, but has chosen not to implement a nationwide shutdown in part because of the economic effects of U.S. sanctions, according to Al Jazeera.
Hungary is planning to import Russia’s “Sputnik V” coronavirus vaccine to conduct tests and trials, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced yesterday, the New York Times reported. The vaccine has been promoted as very effective, but independent experts have not fully assessed the results.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 10.4 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. Nearly 241,800 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Nov. 11, there were 144,133 new cases—another new daily record—and 1,893 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Despite rising COVID-19 cases, the number of U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment claims dropped to its lowest level since March last week, according to Department of Labor data released today. About 709,000 claims were filed in the week ending Nov. 7, a drop of 48,000 from the previous week. However, U.S. markets slid today amid concerns the pandemic is worsening, with the S&P 500 down about 1.4% in afternoon trading.
Americans are less willing to shelter-in-place than they were earlier in the COVID-19 outbreak, according to polling from Gallup released yesterday. Only 49% of Americans said they’d be "very likely" to stay home for a month if public health officials asked them to do so due to an outbreak in their community, compared to 67% in late March and early April. A third said that they would be “very” or “somewhat unlikely” to comply, double the rate in the spring.
In a reminder of the early days of the pandemic, a Caribbean cruise ship carrying 109 passengers and crew members was forced to end its trip early after a passenger fell ill on Wednesday with what is believed to be COVID-19, officials announced Thursday, the AP reports. The passengers, most of whom hailed from the U.S., were required to have negative tests to enter Barbados and on the dock, but the ship had made stops in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Nov. 12, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Two Elite Business Schools Tackle COVID-19
After students returned to campus this fall, both Harvard and Stanford seem to have successfully kept the virus from spreading among students at their business schools—but took very different approaches. Read more here.
Biden Picks Pandemic Veteran As Chief of Staff
In selecting Ron Klain as his chief of staff, President-elect Joe Biden has shown once again that the pandemic is his foremost priority, according to STAT. Klain served as former President Barack Obama’s “Ebola Czar,” sounded an early alarm on the potential threat of a COVID-19 outbreak, and has criticized sitting President Donald Trump’s coronavirus response. Read more here.
China is Giving Thousands of People Unapproved Vaccine
China is already inoculating hundreds of thousands of people with unapproved coronavirus vaccines for what the country’s CDC has called “emergency use,” NPR reports. The country is aiming to get a jump on mass inoculation, but the plan carries big risks—including inadvertently leading people to spread the virus. Read more here.
Virus-Ravaged Communities Backed Trump
Voters who backed Biden cited the pandemic as the biggest factor driving their choice. However, the parts of the country that have been the most affected by the outbreak since August largely voted for President Trump, as my colleague Chris Wilson writes. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Tara Law and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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