COVID-19 Hospitalizations Show the Pandemic Is Far From Over
If you had the misfortune of getting a bad enough case of COVID-19 to require hospitalization this spring, your chances of dying would have been as high as 25%, according to a study of one hard-hit New York City hospital system.
Luckily, that’s no longer the situation. Regulators have approved new treatments for COVID-19, and doctors have learned a tremendous amount about how to care for patients who have the virus. (People at risk of serious disease, including the elderly and those with prior health conditions, are likely also staying home more than they were in early spring.) By mid-August, according to the same study, the hospital system’s fatality rate had dropped to about 7.6%.
That’s a huge improvement, to be sure. But if there were ever a time to grapple with how high that death rate still is, it’s this week. Almost 62,000 people in the U.S. were hospitalized for COVID-19 yesterday, a record that surpasses the virus’ first surge in April and the spike over the summer. Even assuming treatment has improved further since August, thousands of those hospitalized people won’t make it. And even those who do survive may struggle with long-term health problems related to intensive care or the virus itself.
The situation only worsens in areas where COVID-19 admissions are straining hospital capacity and pushing care teams to their limits, in a grim repeat of the spring. From the Dakotas to Rhode Island, U.S. hospitals are struggling to keep pace with the virus as its victims fill more and more beds and U.S. case count keeps breaking records. Less than a week ago, the U.S. surpassed 100,000 diagnoses in a day for the first time; yesterday, a new record of 136,325 people were confirmed to have COVID-19. Wisconsin hospitals are delaying elective procedures again. Morgue trucks are holding bodies in El Paso, Texas. One of Idaho’s largest hospitals has been forced to turn patients away. And as COVID-19 increasingly strikes rural areas, the hospitals least equipped to deal with surges have no choice but to do so.
There’s been a flurry of good COVID-19 news this week, from Pfizer’s promising vaccine results to the approval of another treatment. But that shouldn’t distract from the very real challenges this country (and the rest of the world) still faces. Yesterday alone, 1,415 people in the U.S. died from COVID-19. With hospitalizations and cases on the rise, there will soon be many more.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 51.4 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.27 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Nov. 10, there were 538,072 new cases and 9,000 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 700,000 confirmed cases:
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled off a surprise victory in the country’s first state elections since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Modi was expected to lose the election, which was held in India’s second-largest state of Bihar, given the threat of disease and the pandemic’s economic ramifications in the already-poor region. But as TIME’s Billy Perrigo reports, voters appear to have pinned the blame on Bihar’s chief minister, rather than Modi.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is once again under fire for his handling of the crisis—this time for his reaction to the suspension of a promising COVID-19 vaccine trial. On Monday, officials paused the Brazilian arm of the Chinese CoronaVac trial after a participant died. The death, which is being investigated as a possible suicide, appears unrelated to the vaccine. Still, Bolsonaro—who has repeatedly downplayed the severity of the coronavirus and pushed back on calls for restrictions—called the trial’s pause a political “victory,” the Guardian reports. (The trial has since resumed.)
Vanuatu, a small Pacific island nation with fewer than 300,000 residents, managed to remain one of the world’s only coronavirus-free areas—until this week, when a 23-year-old man returning from travel to the U.S. tested positive for the virus during his quarantine period. He is asymptomatic and remains in isolation, according to health officials.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 10.2 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 239,600 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Nov. 10, there were 136,325 new cases and 1,415 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
With COVID-19 hospitalizations surging, El Paso, Texas, has become the nation’s new hotspot. As the border city struggles to contain its flaring outbreak, which has led to about 27,000 active infections and more than 1,000 hospitalization, officials have resorted to desperate measures similar to those used in New York City this spring, from field hospitals to morgue trucks, KVIA El Paso reports. “I’ve seen more death in the last three weeks than I’ve seen in a year,” registered nurse Nick Rose told KVIA.
Meanwhile, the U.S.’ original hotspot—New York City—is struggling to contain the virus in the borough of Staten Island. Some residents of the city’s conservative bastion appear to be rejecting measures like mask-wearing and social distancing, the New York Times reports. The borough now has a test positivity rate of higher than 3%, about a percentage point higher than the rest of New York City.
On a brighter note, Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN yesterday that his “guesstimate” is that most Americans will be able to get vaccines by the end of April 2021, echoing prior estimates from other top health officials. But Fauci cautioned that people still need to take precautions in the meantime, including social distancing and wearing masks.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Nov. 11, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Restaurants and Gyms are COVID-19 Danger Zones
A new study found that most U.S. COVID-19 infections from March to May occurred in crowded indoor places such as restaurants and gyms. Infections were also more likely in lower-income areas, where public places tend to be more crowded than those in more affluent neighborhoods, the researchers found. Read more here.
Who Dies, and Who Lives, in a Pandemic
Charles Tibbetts died from COVID-19. But it was really the persistent reality of economic disparity that killed him, writes his granddaughter Sarah Jones for the Cut. Read more here.
How to Have a Pandemic-Friendlier Thanksgiving
Holiday travel and packed tables aren’t great ideas this year—but the Associated Press has expert-backed tips for making Thanksgiving still feel special. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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