Rapid, At-Home Testing Could Slow Viral Spread to a Crawl
November’s early sundowns and darker days seem to match the national mood in the United States as the pandemic rages across the country. But Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, has a plan that could brighten things up. In a new piece for TIME, he argues that we could slow or even stop the virus if we adopt a simple yet underused tool: antigen testing.
Unlike PCR testing, which involves a professionally-administered deep nasal swab, antigen testing can be performed at home with a gentler sample collected at the opening of the nostril on a paper strip. As Mina sees things, the government could ship millions of such tests to participating households, workplaces and schools, letting people test themselves frequently. That way, those who become infected would learn their status early, and thus could self-isolate before they transmit the virus to others.
Mina’s strategy relies on widespread adoption—and there’s no guarantee of that, given that many people remain skeptical about basic public-health measures like masks and social distancing. But Mina believes most people want to know if they’re infected or infectious. Moreover, after a person tests positive, frequent self-retesting could give them a better idea of when they’re no longer contagious, perhaps cutting self-isolation periods from weeks to days—and more quickly getting people safely back to work or school.
At-home rapid antigen tests are relatively inexpensive, as such things go—Mina estimates it would take $5 billion to build the necessary manufacturing capacity and another $10 billion to achieve production of 10-20 million tests per day for a full year. However, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has yet to authorize these tests. In part, that’s because the agency typically regulates medical devices, not public health screening tools—so it scrutinizes every test as a clinical medical device. That has caused major approval slowdowns, says Mina, who argues that we need a new, streamlined authorization process to meet this critical moment.
"There is no question that if 1,000 Americans were dying each day in a war, we would act swiftly and decisively," he writes. "Yet, we are not. This should not be about politics—it is about human beings—and we should be acting like it."
More than 55 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 1.3 million people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Nov. 16, there were 535,993 new cases and 8,084 new deaths confirmed globally. Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here is every country with over 800,000 confirmed cases:
Official Russian government reports say 33,000 people in the country died of coronavirus from April to November. But Alexey Raksha, a former government statistician, says there were 177,000 overall excess deaths across the country during that period compared to last year, at least 80% of which—141,600—he attributes to COVID-19, according to CNN. Raksha quit his government position in July after openly criticizing the government’s coronavirus reporting.
Leaders in Austria—where the seven-day rolling average of new daily COVID-19 cases has soared to nearly 6,750—are imposing a strict new lockdown, the Associated Press reports. Beginning today, people are permitted to leave their homes only to buy groceries, exercise, travel to jobs deemed essential or to help others who need assistance. The lockdown is currently set to run through Dec. 6.
The situation in The Netherlands has gone from terrible to merely very bad, with 37,706 new cases in the past seven days, down from 43,621 the week before. That, as Reuters reports, is the result of lockdown measures imposed in mid-October, when public gatherings were banned, face masks were “strongly recommended” inside stores, and restaurants were limited to takeout services only. Prime Minister Mark Rutte does not yet plan to ease restrictions in response to the improvement, as the country’s seven-day rolling average of new daily cases remains high, at just over 5,600.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 11.2 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 247,000 people have died. Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
On Nov. 16, there were 166,045 new cases and 995 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
The coronavirus has climbed Capitol Hill, with at least two members of Congress announcing positive tests and two others currently isolating after possible exposure, CNN reports. Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois and Republican Rep. Tim Walberg of Michigan have tested positive, while Democratic Rep. Mark Pocan of Wisconsin and Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa are isolating. Last week, Rep. Don Young of Alaska—who at 87 is the oldest member of the House of Representatives—announced that he too had tested positive. "I want Alaskans to know that their Congressman is alive, feeling better, and on the road to recovery,” he said in a statement.
Grim numbers are coming in from California, which broke its single-day record for new cases yesterday, with 13,412. In response, governor Gavin Newsom pulled what he refers to as the “emergency brake,” enacting increased restrictions across the state, reports the Los Angeles Times. A total of 41 counties are now under the state’s strictest lockdown rules, with indoor dining, dance and yoga studios, and museums all banned or closed. Most shops are limited to 25% capacity, though grocery stores are allowed 50%. Newsom has not ruled out a statewide curfew to further stem the spread.
Airport workers in seven major cities—Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Francisco, and Seattle—are demonstrating today in favor of better COVID-19 protections leading up to the Thanksgiving travel season. The workers want increased personal protective equipment, training on disease prevention, safer staffing levels and paid sick days. They argue that such measures will boost safety not just for themselves, but for passengers, too.
President-elect Joe Biden is growing impatient with the Trump Administration’s foot-dragging on transition plans, warning yesterday that any further delay could lead to increased coronavirus deaths, the New York Times and others report. While Biden has acknowledged the recent good news on the vaccine front, planning for a nationwide rollout will be a massive logistical undertaking that needs to begin well before his new Administration is in place, he argues. “If we have to wait until Jan. 20 to start that planning, it puts us behind,” Biden said.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Nov. 17, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The Case for Cancelling Thanksgiving
Struggling over how to plan a safe Thanksgiving gathering? Well, spare yourself the headaches and just scrap it altogether. That’s the argument in this piece for The Atlantic, in which staff writer James Hamblin makes the case that there’s no such thing as a safe turkey day dinner this year. Read more here.
What the Cherokee Nation Could Teach the Rest of Us
Even as the U.S. enters a new crisis phase in the pandemic, the Cherokee Nation—a 14-county reservation larger than Connecticut—has its outbreak generally under control, with just 33 deaths among a population of 140,000, reports STAT. The Nation has kept its curve flat thanks to mask mandates, locally-manufactured personal protective equipment, thorough data collection and more. Read more here.
How Latino Communities Are Taking the Initiative to Manage the Pandemic
The pandemic has hit U.S. Latinx communities especially hard for a number of reasons, including the disproportionate number of Latinx people working in essential service industries and the lack of such safety nets among undocumented people. Now, a Latino Public Broadcasting and PBS series highlights how the community is taking control of the crisis on its own. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jeffrey Kluger and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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