When my colleague Elijah Wolfson and I wrote TIME's Sept. 21-28 cover story marking the moment the United States passed 200,000 COVID-19 deaths, it was impossible to know how much worse the toll would get. Five months later, what seemed then like an unfathomably grim milestone has more than doubled: the U.S. today crossed 500,000 coronavirus-related deaths. As we said back then, it's hard to wrap your head around numbers this big—but each represents a mother, a father, a daughter, a son, a unique life that came to an early end, and many of those deaths may have been avoidable had we as a country better controlled the outbreak earlier on, as other nations have done.
We knew things would get worse as winter arrived. We knew that cold weather across much of the country would push people inside, where the virus can more easily spread. We knew that many people would ignore experts' warnings and gather for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's, leading to holiday-related spikes from which we're only just now recovering. Unpredictable factors, like the rise of more transmissible viral variants, have also likely played a role in the mind-numbingly high number of deaths.
Yet even as we grieve those we've lost, we have new reasons for hope. Mass vaccination is underway in the U.S. and elsewhere, and there's evidence that the campaign is already helping to reduce the number of severe cases. Research from Israel, which is much further ahead in its vaccination efforts than the U.S., suggests the vaccines not only reduce the disease's severity, but limit its spread, too—suggesting that vaccination can truly be the pathway out of what once seemed like an endless nightmare. There's also the potential that the virus that causes COVID-19, like other coronaviruses, is seasonal , meaning springtime will give our vaccination counter-offensive the chance to find a real footing.
Of course, any number of things can still go wrong. While most existing vaccines appear at least decently effective against the new viral variants, a new variant could emerge that proves more resistant. If cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to drop, we could let our guard down too early, leading to a resurgence (some U.S. governors, for instance, are already abandoning mask mandates despite experts' pleas otherwise). The vaccination campaign remains imperfect at best, with many of those eligible struggling to actually get an appointment. Many of us are hitting the "pandemic wall"—after months of doing surprisingly well with isolation, I'm starting to really miss seeing people in person other than my wife and son (who I love very much! But still). And for those of us who have lost someone dear to this pandemic, no vaccine or treatment can bring them back.
The pandemic has been an era of cognitive dissonance, and nothing has felt as jarring as trying to simultaneously reckon with the idea that 500,000 Americans are no longer with us while also leaning into the idea that this year of hell may finally be ending. Personally, I find it impossible to do both at the same time, and my mood often swings back and forth between morose and cheery. The key, I suppose, is acknowledging that both are legitimate emotions, and letting myself feel whichever is hitting me at a given time.
Meanwhile, I've poured myself into booking vaccine appointments for anyone I know who's eligible, which has given me a newfound sense of agency after months of feeling adrift. If you're tech-savvy and you have free time on your hands, consider giving that a shot, too—ad-hoc Facebook groups pairing volunteers with people in need of help are popping up across the country, and it's a great way to donate your time without putting yourself at risk of the virus itself. Each inoculation, after all, is a potential life saved, and one step closer to the day we no longer need to send you this newsletter.
75.2 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, of which 63 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. Some 13.1% of the overall U.S. population has received at least one dose, and about 5.7% of Americans have gotten both doses.
There's good news out of Scotland this morning, where researchers say a mass vaccination program has dramatically reduced COVID-19 hospital admissions, as it has in Israel. The study , which has not yet been peer reviewed, found that the AstraZeneca vaccine reduced hospitalizations by about 94% about a month after the first shot, while the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine did so by about 85%. The AstraZeneca result is especially good news, as the previous Israeli research looked at only the Pfizer shot. However, the researchers cautioned that hospitalizations appeared to rise again about a month after the first shot, though they need more data to better understand why that happens.
California, the most populous state in the U.S., is rolling out a new statewide vaccination tracking system in an effort to centralize a process that had largely been left up to individual counties and hospital systems. While some Californians welcome the switch, others are fearful that the change may cause further confusion. It remains unclear, meanwhile, how the system might alleviate the root cause of California's vaccination headaches: excessive demand and inadequate supply, a problem across the country.
The United Kingdom is moving up its vaccination timeline, with British leaders now saying that all adults in the country should get their first shot by July 31—about a month sooner than earlier planned. While vaccine supply has been an issue for the U.K., Health Secretary Matt Hancock said yesterday that he's now confident the country will have enough doses to make the July timeline realistic. The U.K. is also one of just a handful of countries that are spreading out first and second shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine by 12 weeks, rather than the recommended three-to-four, in an effort to get a larger number of people at least partially protected against the virus.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 111.4 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 4:40 p.m. E.T. today, and more than 2.4 million people have died. On Feb. 21, there were 313,693 new cases and 5,880 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2 million confirmed cases:
Australia, where the COVID-19 outbreak is largely under control, began its mass vaccination program this morning, starting with front line workers and nursing home residents; Prime Minister Scott Morrison also got the shot, the BBC reports. The country plans to administer at least 60,000 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine this week.
Tanzanian President John Magufuli, who for months has denied that COVID-19 is a major problem in his country, urged citizens on Friday to unite for three days of prayer to fight an outbreak plaguing Tanzania, though he did not specifically mention the coronavirus. Magufuli's comments came after the deaths of several high-profile politicians in recent days, some with confirmed COVID-19. While Tanzania has officially reported only about 500 coronavirus deaths, reports from hospitals and elsewhere indicate a rise in the number of patients being treated for an unspecified “pneumonia”-like illness, according to the AP.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded more than 28.1 million coronavirus cases as of 4:40 p.m. E.T. today. More than 500,000 people have died. On Feb. 21, there were 56,495 new cases and 2,423 new deaths confirmed in the U.S. Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
Several minority groups, including Black Americans, American Indians, Alaskan Natives, and Hispanic and Latino Americans, have been underrepresented in U.S.-based COVID-19 clinical trials compared to their share of the country's overall population, according to a study published Friday in JAMA Network Open that analyzed 230 such trials. Older Americans were also underrepresented, while women were overrepresented. The researchers are calling for more trials that better include these underrepresented groups.
Don't expect to throw your mask away any time soon—there's a chance Americans may still need to be wearing them in some situations through the end of this year, Dr. Anthony Fauci said today on CBS This Morning. "It is quite conceivable that if we actually go into the fall and the winter and there is still a degree of virus in the community, despite the fact that many people have been vaccinated—we certainly will likely, very likely be much better off then than we are now—but it is conceivable that there will be enough virus in the community that in order to be extra safe, we may have to be wearing masks under certain circumstances," Fauci said.
The House Budget Committee today voted, 19 to 16, to advance congressional Democrats' nearly 600-page coronavirus relief bill to a vote on the House floor later this week. As written, the bill includes another round of $1,400 relief checks. However, individuals making more than $75,000 and married couples making more than $150,000 would receive less than the full amount, while individuals making more than $100,000 and couples making over $200,000 would receive nothing. The bill would also extend unemployment benefits, housing assistance and other federal programs meant to keep people afloat during the pandemic. While it's expected to pass the House mostly intact, the Senate may make changes.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Feb. 22, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
For Victims and the Accused, Justice Is Delayed as COVID-19 Snarls Courts
Courts across the U.S. are delaying trials, hearings and other proceedings, leaving many of those involved in a psychologically taxing state of legal limbo, writes TIME's Melissa Chan. Read more here.
Why We Can't Make More Vaccine Doses Faster
Producing the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, both of which are based on bleeding-edge mRNA technology, isn't straightforward. Here, ProPublica offers a good explanation of why we can't simply build more vaccine factories, as we might with planes and tanks during wartime. Read more here.
The 27-Year-Old Who Became a COVID-19 Data Superstar
In spring of last year, one question loomed large: just how bad would the pandemic get? While major institutions with tons of funding worked on that question, so too did Youyang Gu, then a 26-year-old upstart data scientist—and he nailed it, as Bloomberg's Ashlee Vance writes. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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