We'll Probably Never Eliminate COVID-19 from the U.S. It's Still Worth Trying
The COVID-19 pandemic has been an era of hard conversations and tough choices for individuals and nations alike. What mask do I choose? How do I explain that I’m skipping Christmas dinner? Should the country invest in testing capability or in vaccine development? Should all schools be required to shut down in-person learning? These conversations have exposed differences between people’s values, and in what we’re willing to give up to keep ourselves and others safe. In the coming months, society as a whole will face yet another momentous decision: what sort of endgame will we target for the pandemic?
Gavin Yamey, an expert on global health policy, and William Hanage, an infectious disease epidemiologist, writing for TIME, suggest there are three options:
An endemic scenario, in which disease levels are kept low but SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate indefinitely, becoming something like the seasonal flu
Elimination, meaning no new cases within U.S. borders
Eradication, meaning no new cases across the globe
Yamey and Hanage warn that any approach will come with major positives and negatives for Americans. For instance, countries that have tried to eliminate COVID-19 have put in place border restrictions and limits on travel. In order to make these difficult decisions, the U.S. must step up an effort with which the country has long struggled: encouraging open dialogue about the risks and rewards of the methods for fighting COVID-19. “My greatest hope is that there’s an actual deliberative, inclusive process that drives the approach that the U.S. eventually chooses. These choices will, I hope, be driven by an honest discussion of the trade-offs,” Yamey told me.
Ultimately, Yamey and Hanage conclude that while eliminating COVID-19 from the U.S. will be a major challenge, it may still be the correct goal. One key reason why is that there will be benefits along the way, that might not accrue if we just accept a future where SARS-CoV-2 is endemic. A multi-pronged approach including increased production and use of high-quality masks, more rapid antigen testing, and improved genomic surveillance could bring down transmission as vaccines continue to roll out.
That in turn would prevent big surges that bring the economy to a halt; promote equity, given that COVID-19 kills more people of color; and reduce the risk of long COVID, in which people develop chronic conditions that could burden the health system for years to come.
“While we still have a long way to go in driving down cases and transmission, we can now see light at the end of the tunnel. We wrote this piece because we can now start asking the question of what it might look like when we get there,” says Yamey.
Nearly 88.7 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, of which 66 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. Some 13.6% of the overall U.S. population has received at least one dose, and about 6.2% of Americans have gotten both doses.
More evidence is mounting to confirm that vaccines work, my colleague Alice Park writes. A study published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine by researchers in Israel and the U.S. showed that the Pfizer-BioNTech shot lowered people’s chances of getting sick (particularly with severe diseases) and reduced the hospitalization rate. A second study, a preprint in the Lancet by Scottish researchers, found that both the Pfizer-BioNTech or AstraZeneca shot have contributed to lower hospitalization rates, even after a single dose of the two-dose vaccines. These studies are an encouraging sign that the vaccines don’t just work during trials—they actually help when given to the public.
Moderna has shipped a new version of its vaccine adapted for the new, more infectious coronavirus variants that have been identified recently, the company announced yesterday. Data have shown that Moderna’s shot protects against viral variants that spread faster, but it doesn’t seem to work as well to defend against the B.1.351 variant, which was first identified in South Africa. Moderna also announced it is launching studies to see if a third dose of its existing vaccine could provide extra protection against that coronavirus strain.
Pfizer-BioNTech is also trying out that third-dose strategy, to see if it improves its vaccine’s effectiveness against the B.1.351 and other variants, the company announced this morning. Researchers have found that the vaccine doesn’t generate as many antibodies versus the South African variant. Mikael Dolsten, chief scientific officer at Pfizer, told Alice that company scientists think the booster could enhance antibody levels to improve protection.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 112.5 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and nearly 2.5 million people have died. On Feb. 24, there were 443,427 new cases and 11,971 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2 million confirmed cases:
COVID-19 cases in Europe have dropped by nearly half since the end of 2020, the World Health Organization regional director for Europe Dr. Hans Henri P. Kluge said today . Kluge credited countries that have put in place measures to slow the spread of the virus for the drop in cases. For instance, England implemented a national lockdown starting in December that limited when residents can leave home; combined with a national vaccination campaign, that likely contributed to a major drop in cases. The U.K reported 18% as many cases over the last week as it did during the country’s peak in early January.
Doctors in Africa and Latin America say that a medical oxygen shortage is leading to unnecessary deaths, according to the Associated Press. Although the risk of shortages became clear in the spring, “very little was done,” according to Leith Greenslade, coordinator of the Every Breath Counts Coalition, which promotes oxygen access; countries like Brazil and Nigeria only began to tackle the inadequate supplies after hospitals became overwhelmed last month, the AP reports.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded more than 28.3 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. Nearly 506,000 people have died. On Feb. 24, there were 73,386 new cases and 3,148 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
After reviewing death certificates backlogged in Los Angeles County during a surge in cases around the holidays, California yesterday officially became the first state to surpass 50,000 deaths from COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins’ case tracker, with 50,890 total. The state passed the threshold yesterday after Los Angeles County reported 806 cases that had not been previously reported as COVID-19 deaths; most of these deaths occurred from Dec. 3 to Feb. 3.
While the U.S. still has a long way to go before reaching herd immunity, its vaccine program seems to have already created at least one new bright spot in the fight against COVID-19: nursing homes. Nursing homes have long been one of the riskiest places for COVID-19 infection, with residents and employees making up more than a third of all deaths in the U.S. according to the New York Times. But the effort to vaccinate as many nursing home residents as possible seems to have caused a 65% drop in COVID-19 deaths and an 80% drop in new cases among that population from late December to early February, according to a Times analysis.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Feb. 25, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
A Company Enabling Vaccine Line-Jumping
An investigation by NPR found that the national health provider One Medical, which has branded itself as a high-end, concierge service, has been providing vaccines to people ineligible according to local health department rules. Internal communications show that family and friends of the company’s leaders as well as staff at its headquarters were able to jump the line to get vaccines. Read more here.
Not Everyone’s Pandemic Experience is Equal
LGBTQ Latinos have suffered a bigger impact on their employment and financial conditions than many Americans, facing high unemployment, reduced working hours and a resulting inability to pay their rent. The LA Times took a look at their struggle. Read more here.
“Are we being overly cautious?”
In this week’s COVID Question, TIME responded to a question from a parent who has chosen to be especially careful about contracting COVID-19 to protect their son, who was born premature. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
If you were forwarded this and want to sign up to receive it daily, click here.
Today's newsletter was written by Tara Law and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
沒有留言:
張貼留言