Is the Pace of Vaccine Rollout Increasing Fast Enough?
Yesterday, Dr. Anthony Fauci predicted that vaccine access will open up to the U.S. general public in April, and any American who wants to be will be vaccinated by the end of summer. It's an optimistic estimate—but how does it actually track with the progress of the vaccine rollout so far?
As my colleague Chris Wilson reports, the pace of vaccine distribution has picked up considerably since President Joe Biden took office last month. Between the start of his term and Feb. 11, the U.S. administered an average of 1.3 million doses per day, about three times as many as during the prior five weeks. If the U.S. keeps up or exceeds that pace, Biden should easily meet his goal of administering 100 million doses (enough to fully protect 50 million people) in his first 100 days in office.
But, as Chris writes, not everything is going exactly according to plan. Lots of eligible people are still unable to get vaccine appointments, even though many states have been allocated more vaccines than they've administered. It's hard to say exactly what's happening to that surplus, but it seems to be "a distribution problem, with too many doses clustered in too few places," Chris says. In some cases, vaccines may have spoiled before they could be used. In others, shots may have gone to facilities that couldn't use as many as they were given, forcing states to redistribute doses. And, perhaps worst of all, some states simply don't know where those extra doses are or why they haven't been used.
So, taking the good with the bad, is Fauci's prediction likely to come true? Nobody knows for sure, obviously. (And if anyone can guess accurately, it's probably Fauci.) But after his deep-dive into the data, Chris says he's cautiously optimistic.
43.4 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, while about 34.7 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker—representing 10.5% of the overall U.S. population who have received at least one dose.
The Biden Administration has purchased an additional 100 million doses of both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, the Washington Postreported yesterday. The deal means the U.S. will have a cumulative 600 million doses of the two currently approved shots by the end of July, enough to vaccinate every American adult—not counting shots that may get U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorization in the coming months, like those developed by Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca-Oxford.
Meanwhile, things aren’t going well for the U.S.' neighbor to the north. Canada has purchased more vaccine doses per capita than any other country on the planet, CNN reports—and yet it has so far vaccinated only about 3% of its population. Canada's`s rollout has suffered from a combination of manufacturing delays and bottlenecks in vaccine availability. Canada procures its vaccines from Europe, but the continent has placed restrictions on the exportation of vaccines, according to CNN. As a result, many people in Canada will likely have to wait until at least spring to get their shots.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 107.7 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 2.3 million people have died. On Feb. 11, there were 439,808 new cases and 14,119 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 1.5 million confirmed cases:
There’s more promising news out of Israel, which is poised to become the first country to reach herd immunity against COVID-19. Data from an Israeli health care provider that has given half a million people two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech shot show that only 544 of those people tested positive for COVID-19 after vaccination, and just four developed a severe case. No fatal cases have been reported among the vaccinated people. Those findings suggest Pfizer-BioNTech's shot is highly effective under real-life conditions, not just in clinical trials.
The Australian state of Victoria will enter a five-day "circuit breaker" lockdown after 13 people linked to a quarantine hotel tested positive for an extra-transmissible coronavirus variant spreading in the U.K. Despite the lockdown, the Australian Open will go forward in Melbourne, but fans will no longer be able to attend the tennis competition, as they were originally set to do.
In Europe, travelers entering Germany from two of its neighbors, Austria and the Czech Republic, will now have to show proof of a negative COVID-19 test before crossing the border, German officials announced yesterday. Parts of both countries have struggled to contain the spread of new, more contagious coronavirus variants. While cross-border travel is typically a breeze in Europe, the pandemic has led to new movement restrictions meant to curb viral spread.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded more than 27.3 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 475,000 people have died. On Feb. 11, there were 105,353 new cases and 3,877 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention today released new guidance on reopening schools, emphasizing that masking and social distancing are important and saying some schools may be able to reopen even if all teachers are not yet vaccinated. Schools in areas with low or moderate COVID-19 transmission can consider fully resuming in-person learning, the CDC says. Schools in areas with substantial transmission can consider a partial return to in-person learning, according to the guidelines, while middle and high schools in areas with 100 or more cases per 100,000 people should rely on remote instruction.
The Pentagon has approved the deployment of additional military personnel to help staff federal vaccination sites, bringing the total up to 4,700 people. These sites, run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, are part of the Biden Administration's plan for speeding up vaccine distribution.
More than 9,000 people recovering from COVID-19 were sent to New York nursing homes in the early months of the pandemic—40% more than had been previously disclosed, according to new Associated Press reporting. New York abandoned the controversial policy of sending recovering coronavirus patients from hospitals to nursing homes in May, amid fears that it could potentially seed outbreaks among vulnerable populations. About 15,000 New Yorkers have died from COVID-19 in long-term care facilities, according to recently released statistics, but the state has disputed allegations that its policy drove up that number.
Montana governor Greg Gianforte will let his state's mask mandate expire today, after arguing that enough vulnerable people have been vaccinated against COVID-19 to justify the move. Leaders in several other states, including Iowa and North Dakota, have also either lifted mask mandates or allowed them to expire in a trend that experts say is premature and dangerous. Though case counts are falling and vaccination rates are increasing, the U.S. is far from herd immunity. Until then, precautions like masking and social distancing are still our best tools for controlling the virus' spread.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Feb. 12, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Are Daycare Pods a Good Idea?
In this week's COVID Questions column, a reader with kids in daycare asks whether it's safe to form a pod with their classmates' families. The short answer: it's not the worst plan, but it's hard to do it right. Read more here.
Congress Is Trying to Get More Money to Families
Politicians on both sides of the aisle—President Joe Biden and Republican Senator Mitt Romney—have recently proposed plans to increase aid money for parents. TIME's Belinda Luscombe dug into both plans and tried to determine which might better help families. Read more here.
Trump Was Sicker Than He Said
A new story in the New York Times confirms what many people suspected this past fall: Former President Donald Trump was sicker with COVID-19 than he let on. At one point, the Times reports, his care team thought he would need mechanical ventilation to survive. Read more here.
How to Get a Vaccine Appointment
The Verge has news you can really use: advice on how to score a coveted COVID-19 vaccination appointment or get on a standby list for unused doses. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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