There’s a cliche in photography: “The best camera is the one you have with you.” The saying is meant to encourage photographers to take their cameras around with them every day, because even if you have the latest, greatest model, you won’t get good pictures if your camera is just sitting on the shelf at home.
I’d like to suggest a pandemic-themed variation: the best vaccine is the one that’s in your arm.
When Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech revealed late last year that their mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines were both almost totally effective against severe symptoms, they set a remarkably high bar. So when Johnson & Johnson announced Friday that its COVID-19 vaccine, which uses a more traditional design, is “only” 66% effective at preventing disease, many took that as disappointing news. Over the weekend, I saw a disturbing number of people on social media say they only want the Moderna or Pfizer shots, and would reject the J&J vaccine if it was the only option available to them.
That would be a mistake. Yes, the J&J shot is less effective in preventing all COVID-19 symptoms—but those include such benign ailments as a nagging cough. It’s still 85% effective in preventing severe symptoms, meaning people who get the J&J shot and later contract the virus could suffer the equivalent of a bad cold, rather than maybe needing to go to the hospital, or worse. And yes, people who get the J&J vaccine and are later exposed to the virus have a slightly higher chance of serious COVID-19 symptoms compared to those who get the Moderna or Pfizer shots. But the difference is almost negligible.
Meanwhile, those with the J&J shot are much, much better protected than those without any vaccine at all. Furthermore, every person who gets any vaccine brings us all one step closer to herd immunity and the end of the pandemic. So if the J&J vaccine is the only one available to you, don’t hesitate to roll up your sleeve. (J&J’s shot hasn’t been cleared for use in the U.S. yet, but that authorization is expected in the coming weeks—the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is looking for 50-60% efficacy for authorization, a bar the J&J vaccine clears easily, my colleague Alice Park reports.)
Still, decision-makers need to be smart about how the J&J vaccine is distributed. Because it requires only a single dose and is easier to store and transport than the other vaccines, it will be a more logistically practical option for underserved communities with less pre-existing access to high-end healthcare technology, which in the U.S. are often Black and brown neighborhoods. But disadvantaged communities, already justifiably suspicious of the health care system, may become more so if they have access to the J&J vaccines but not the other, slightly more effective shots. It’s yet another reminder that having a more just and equitable health care system would have made the COVID-19 pandemic easier to handle all the way around.
In a perfect world, we might set up a system where people with the lowest risk for developing severe COVID-19—like me, a young-ish, healthy white person who can work from home and has access to good healthcare—would get the J&J vaccine, while the slightly more powerful Moderna and Pfizer shots would be reserved for those at highest risk, like the elderly, front-line workers, and Black and brown people. Unfortunately, at least here in the U.S. where our vaccine rollout has been plagued by enough logistical troubles as it is, this isn’t a practical option. But state leaders making distribution choices need to be mindful of this potential pitfall—especially as early data show a distressing vaccination gap is already developing.
VACCINE TRACKER
While 37.8 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, only about 25.2 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker—representing 7.6% of the overall U.S. population.
Even if J&J’s vaccine results are good news, the cavalry isn’t here quite yet: assuming it gets FDA authorization, the company would only be able to produce tens of millions of doses in the coming weeks and months, a federal health official told CNN. That’s not zero, but in a country of nearly 330 million people, it’s not exactly a lot, either. Still, because J&J recipients only need a single shot (compared to two for Modern and Pifzer), it’s more than it might sound like at first.
A U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention report published today showed that the majority of initial vaccine doses administered so far—60.4%—have gone to white recipients, while only 11.5% have gone to Hispanic or Latino people, 6% to Asian people and 5.4% to Black people.
While the data suggest an alarming lack of vaccinations among non-whites, White House coronavirus officials said today that nearly half of vaccinations nationwide are being logged without race or ethnicity data, making it impossible to accurately gauge the severity of the problem.
Chinese police have arrested about 80 people who were allegedly selling saline-filled syringes advertised as COVID-19 vaccine doses, the South China Morning Post reports. It’s the latest in a string of suspected or confirmed global vaccine frauds that seek to take advantage of people’s desperation to be inoculated against the virus.
While getting your COVID-19 vaccine is certainly exciting, the U.S. Better Business Bureau, a consumer protection group, is warning people against sharing their vaccine card on social media in celebration, as many have done. “The personal info on it makes you a target for ID theft and helps scammers create fake cards,” the organization said Friday. Posting that celebratory picture of a needle in your arm, however, is A-O.K., and could perhaps convince others in your circle to get inoculated themselves.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 102 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 2.2 million people have died. On Jan. 31, there were 382,036 new cases and 7,925 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 1.5 million confirmed cases:
Israel is extending its national lockdown until at least Friday, the Jerusalem Postreports , while its ban on most international flights will be in place until at least Sunday. The moves come as Israel has struggled to contain fresh outbreaks, and as some ultra-Orthodox Israelis continue to defy bans on large public gatherings. That Israel is staying under lockdown despite its world-leading vaccination efforts speaks to the virulence of COVID-19 as well as the difficulty of containing it without broad public buy-in. Meanwhile, Israel is sending 5,000 doses of vaccine to the Palestinian Authority amid criticisms that the country hasn’t been doing enough to help people in PA-controlled areas.
French President Emmanuel Macron is resisting experts’ calls for a third national lockdown, AFP reports. While Macron is reportedly concerned about the potential economic and mental health toll of yet another closure, his decision is risky as a new, more virulent strain of COVID-19 appears to be sweeping across Europe at breakneck speed. Moreover, his resistance complicates the continent’s efforts to curtail the virus—a France with unchecked spread is bad news for more careful neighbors, like Germany.
European Union leaders over the weekend backtracked on a controversial plan to restrict vaccine exports into the U.K., the New York Times reports. The reversal came as Europe struggles to secure enough vaccine doses for its member states. The plan also drew criticism from some who argued it could inflame tensions between Northern Ireland (part of the U.K., which left the E.U. via Brexit) and the Republic of Ireland (which remains an E.U. member).
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 26 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 441,000 people have died. On Jan. 31, there were 111,896 new cases and 1,794s new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
A group of 10 Senate Republicans has proposed a smaller round of coronavirus-related economic relief compared to President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion plan. Their package includes $160 billion for vaccinations, testing and personal protective equipment, but would skip another round of $1,400 stimulus checks in favor of more targeted relief. The proposal is the first major Republicans response to the plan Biden has put forth and marks the start of what could potentially be weeks or even months of negotiations.
At today’s White House COVID-19 briefing, the Biden Administration announced a $231.8 million deal with Australian firm Ellume to mass produce at-home rapid coronavirus tests, which can display results on a user’s smartphone in 15 minutes. The $30 test, authorized by the FDA in December, could help curb viral spread by making it easier for people to tell whether they have the virus and should therefore stay home. As part of the deal, 8.5 million of the tests will be distributed across the U.S. beginning soon, the Defense Department said in a statement , while domestic U.S. production will be ramped up to 640,000 tests a day by December.
Vaccine appointments for people across the northeast have been canceled or rescheduled today as a major winter storm wallops areas from Washington, D.C. to Massachusetts. The weather is an especially big problem for vaccine sites that were set up outdoors to minimize the risk of viral spread. But with 18-24 inches of snow forecast in some places, even traveling to an indoor site is risky. “We ask all New Yorkers to monitor the weather and stay off the roads tomorrow so our crews and first responders can safely do their jobs,” Melissa DeRosa, an aide to New York governor Andrew Cuomo, said in a statement.
Anti-vaccine protestors prevented cars from entering California’s Dodger Stadium mega-site for about an hour on Saturday afternoon, the Los Angeles Times reports, in one of the first reported instances of a demonstration interfering with U.S. COVID-19 vaccination operations. Los Angeles Police Chief Michel Moore said all scheduled appointments eventually proceeded as planned.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of Feb. 1, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
What America's Richest Ski Town's Handling of COVID-19 Says About the Country
Without more government support, winter resort towns like Jackson, Wy., that depend on seasonal traffic from skiers and snowboarders are left with little choice but to open the slopes, enforce some restrictions and hope for the best. Read more here.
Trump Officials Lobbied Congress to Deny States Vaccine Money
Top officials in the Trump Administration tried to get lawmakers not to send extra money to the states for their vaccination efforts, STAT reports, despite state leaders’ desperate pleas for financial help. Read more here.
A Pandemic Is Hard Enough. For Some, Being Single Has Made It Harder
Spending time with my wife and son has kept me (more or less) sane since the pandemic began. So I can only imagine how hard it must be for many people who are going through it alone, like those my friend Daniel Victor spoke with for his latest piece over at the New York Times. Read more here.
Football’s COVID-19 Data Have Significance Beyond the Gridiron
Even if you don’t care about Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes or anything else NFL-related, there’s value in the league’s coronavirus findings, which suggest that six feet isn’t enough distance to prevent spread, the Wall Street Journal reports. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
If you were forwarded this and want to sign up to receive it daily, click here.
Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
沒有留言:
張貼留言