Let me be the first to admit that I am very rarely right about anything. But I'm glad at least one of my COVID-19 predictions appears to be coming true: early in the pandemic, when polling showed an alarmingly high rate of vaccine skepticism among Americans, I guessed that hesitancy would decrease once vaccines were actually available. It made sense, I thought, that some people would be nervous about a new vaccine early on, but then come around once they saw that their friends and family were getting their shots with limited, if any, problems.
Back in February, only 52% of unvaccinated Americans said they planned to be vaccinated once the shot was available to them, according to a TIME/Harris poll. About a quarter were firmly against it, while 21% were on the fence. That wasn't great news, as most experts say we need about 70% uptake for the vaccines to effectively help end the pandemic.
With vaccination now well underway here in the U.S., those numbers are changing for the better: in a new TIME/Harris poll conducted in early March, 26% of Americans eligible for the vaccine say they have received at least one dose, while 54% of Americans who have not yet received a vaccine say they plan to do so eventually. That second number doesn't seem like a huge jump over the earlier 52% figure, but in part that's because the number of Americans who have gotten at least one dose has grown considerably—meaning lots of people who were "yeses" are no longer represented in the 54% figure, which only includes people who haven't yet gotten a shot.
It's particularly heartening to look at the reasons why some are hesitant to get their shot. Often, these people are dismissed as radical anti-vaxxers—but only 2% of Americans who don't want their shot right away said they "don't think a vaccine is necessary," per our latest poll. People's reasons for waiting are often far more reasonable: 38% want to see how the vaccine affects others before getting it themselves, 34% are concerned about long-term side effects, and 27% are just waiting for it to become easier to get an appointment. While concerns about long-term side effects are difficult to assuage with anything other than the passage of time, those other motivations are easier to address.
While all three of the COVID-19 vaccines authorized for U.S. use have proven both safe and effective in trials, it's at least understandable that some people may want to wait to see how they perform in the real world before getting the shot themselves—especially if they're not at immediate risk of severe disease themselves. (So far, they seem to be working extremely well .) Vaccine hesitancy remains a public health issue with distressing racial implications—only 44% of Black Americans and 49% of Hispanic Americans say they're planning to get the shot, for instance, compared to 57% of white Americans. And it will likely become a bigger problem down the road, when the challenge more completely shifts from getting doses to people who want them to convincing skeptics to roll up their sleeves. To solve that problem, we first need to understand the root causes of people's hesitancy—and those appear to be more complex, but perhaps more addressable, than they may first seem.
VACCINE TRACKER
About 116.3 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, of which 92 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. Approximately 18.1% of the overall U.S. population has received at least one dose, and about 9.4% of Americans have gotten both doses.
Here's an uplifting way to look at the latest U.S. vaccination data: as of this morning, approximately 30.6 million Americans have received a complete vaccine regimen—more than the total number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in the U.S. since the pandemic began. It's more of a symbolic number than anything else, especially considering it means only about 9.2% of Americans have gotten both doses—but it's a nice milestone nonetheless.
While foreign governments have ordered millions of doses of Russia's Sputnik V vaccine, Russians themselves seem to be skeptical of the shot, the Wall Street Journalreports—only 3.5% of citizens have gotten the vaccine even though it's easy to get. "We were on par with everybody else in developing the vaccine, but we’re now behind in administering it," Russian healthcare investor Anton Gopka told the Journal. In part, the problem is fueled by skepticism among Russians in both Moscow's ability to create a safe and effective vaccine, and in the severity of the coronavirus outbreak itself.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 116.8 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 2.5 million people have died. On March 7, there were 367,495 new cases and 5,245 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2 million confirmed cases:
Syrian President Bashar Assad and his wife have both tested positive for the coronavirus, NPR reports , citing state-run media. The pair are in "good health and in a stable condition," according to Assad's office. While Syria has only reported about 16,000 deaths due to COVID-19, the actual number is likely far higher as the country's ongoing civil war disrupts public health efforts there.
Planning some mid-pandemic international travel any time soon? Godspeed: nearly one-third of countries with tourism-heavy economies are totally closed off to international travel, according to a U.N. World Tourism Organization report released today. Another third have partial restrictions in place, including requirements like visitors receiving a COVID-19 test before departing or spending time in quarantine upon arrival. While vaccination efforts should make global travel safer—and millions of jobs depend on a health travel and tourism sector—international travelers can still spread the virus, including emerging new variants.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded more than 28.9 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 525,000 people have died. On March 7, there were 40,340 new cases and 669 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention today released long-awaited guidance for people who are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, telling them it's safe to gather indoors with other vaccinated people without a mask, but advising them to mask up while in public and to avoid crowds. The CDC also cleared vaccinated people to gather indoors with non-vaccinated people from a single household, so long as the non-vaccinated people are not at risk of developing severe COVID-19. Translation: if grandma is vaccinated and you don't have any risk factors—or you're also vaccinated—it's probably fine to take the kids for a visit, but use your best judgement. The CDC's guidance is likely to change as more people get vaccinated, reducing the risk of larger gatherings.
Counting on the next stimulus check to help get you through a tight spot? Keep your eye on the House of Representatives tomorrow, when a final vote on Congress' latest coronavirus relief package is expected before it heads to U.S. President Joe Biden's desk for his signature. Once the bill is signed, the checks could begin arriving as soon as later this month; see here for a helpful calculator to help predict how much money you may receive. The bill also extends enhanced unemployment payments, expands the child tax credit and more.
There are signs that some governors' recent decisions to end mask mandates in their states are fueling anti-mask sentiment elsewhere in the country. Case in point: about 100 anti-mask protesters, including some children, were recorded burning facial coverings in a protest outside the Idaho statehouse on Saturday. (Idaho has never had a statewide mask mandate, but the mayor of Boise, where the statehouse is located, has issued one). Similar demonstrations were held across the country this weekend, the Washington Postreports.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of March 8, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
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WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The Late-Pandemic Era Is Screwing With Our Brains
Overall, I'm pretty happy that the pandemic may be nearly over—but I've also been surprisingly anxious about what life will look like when this is done (here, I made a silly meme about it!). Turns out I'm not alone, as Ellen Cushing makes clear over at The Atlantic. Read more here.
See Something? Don't Say Something
Here's a good social media vaccine etiquette tip: if you see someone post a vaccine selfie but it isn't immediately clear why they qualified for a shot, don't ask them to explain how they got one. "In cases when these people feel entitled to information about others' health, newly vaccinated people might feel pressured to discuss sensitive health information in order to 'justify' themselves, which can feel invasive and stressful," writes Angela Lashbrook over at VICE. Read more here.
When the Clock Stopped
For me, March 11 is the anniversary of the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic—in part because that's the day the NBA suddenly postponed its season after a player tested positive. Here, the New York Times speaks with NBA commissioner Adam Silver, as well as other sports leaders, about that day and the two that followed, when the country's courts, arenas and stadiums suddenly emptied out. Read more here.
How a Year Lived Online Has Changed Our Children
Almost immediately after the pandemic began and schools and daycares were closed, parents realized that screen time rules would have to be thrown out the window if families' sanities were to remain intact. Here, the Washington Post explores the consequences of our kids' digital year. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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