After Weeks of Scientific Detective Work, the WHO Puts Out Its Theory of How the Pandemic Started
While public health officials around the world scramble to vaccinate as many people against COVID-19 as possible, some investigators, researchers, and journalists are working on a different problem: how did the pandemic begin in the first place?
The overwhelming consensus among experts is that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is "zoonotic," meaning it jumped from an animal to a person—likely in or around Wuhan, China, the site of the first known outbreak among humans—and that person went on to seed further infections. That explanation is about to get a major boost: a joint World Health Organization-China report due out tomorrow finds that the virus most likely jumped from a bat to another animal and then on to a human, according to a pre-release draft obtained by the Associated Press.
However, the report at least acknowledges another, far more provocative scenario: the virus escaped from a Chinese lab. This "lab leak" theory is generally the stuff of the internet's more conspiracy-driven corners, but it's also been endorsed by a smattering of top experts, including Dr. Robert Redfield, who led the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) under President Donald Trump. "I am of the point of view that I still think the most likely etiology of this pathogen in Wuhan was from a laboratory, escaped," Redfield says in a new CNN documentary. "The other people don’t believe that. That’s fine. Science will eventually figure it out." Lab-leakers usually posit that the virus came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a biosafety level 4 laboratory in China's Hubei province. Some believe it was developed as part of research into coronaviruses—which, despite being fairly quotidian, is still controversial in some circles—while others on the fringe argue it was developed (and perhaps even intentionally released) as a bioweapon.
In support of their views, Redfield and other lab leakers point to SARS-CoV-2's remarkably high transmissibility, which to them suggests that it was purposefully engineered to spread among humans. But in Friday's White House coronavirus briefing, Dr. Anthony Fauci pushed back on that idea, arguing with his trademark tact that the virus may have been circulating in China for at least a month before it was identified as a unique pathogen. "If that were the case, the virus clearly could have adapted itself to a greater efficiency of transmissibility over that period of time up to and at the time it was recognized," Fauci said. Many leakers are also generally skeptical of China, which would have an obvious stake in covering up any kind of biological Chernobyl.
The WHO study finds that the lab leak scenario is "extremely unlikely," per the AP's draft copy. Given China's role in developing that study—and the roadblocks Beijing threw up to complicate the WHO's research—the findings are unlikely to convince many China-skeptics. But at the same time, it's worth considering that people with close ties to the Trump Administration—including Redfield—have an incentive to heap as much blame upon China for the pandemic as possible. That China is chiefly responsible for the pandemic is a popular refrain among former U.S. President Donald Trump and his supporters, as that framing at least partially absolves him of his responsibility for the hundreds of thousands of U.S. COVID-19 deaths that occurred under his watch.
So how did the pandemic really start? It's an important question to solve, as having that knowledge could help us prevent the next global outbreak. But from a public health perspective, it's also one we don't need to answer immediately. Regardless of how the first unlucky soul came into contact with SARS-CoV-2, the virus is all over the planet now, and knowing our enemy's origin story won't make it any easier to fight over the coming months.
More than 180.6 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, of which 145.8 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. More than 28% of the overall U.S. population has received at least one dose, and about 15.8% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
Here's maybe the best news you'll read all day: the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines reduce people's real-world risk of COVID-19 infection by 90% two weeks after receiving the second dose, according to a CDC study published today. Even just a single shot results in an 80% dropoff two weeks later, the study found—though people should still get the recommended two-dose regimen for maximum protection and endurance. The results are especially encouraging because the study was conducted among nearly 4,000 participants who work in health care, first response and other roles in which they were likely to be exposed to the virus. The study was conducted in six U.S. states between December of last year and March of this year.
Johnson & Johnson will supply up to 400 doses of its Janssen vaccine to the African Union beginning later this year, the company announced today. The J&J vaccine is particularly attractive to African public health officials because it's administered in a single dose, making it easier to roll out in communities with less-developed healthcare networks compared to the two-dose Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech options. J&J is also working with COVAX, a WHO- and Gavi-run initiative to ensure equitable vaccine access around the world.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 127.1 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 2.7 million people have died. On March 28, there were 390,218 new cases and 6,172 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2 million confirmed cases:
Leaders in the U.K. are easing restrictions as its vaccination efforts continue to outpace those of the European Union and new cases fall, CBS News reports. People in England, who've been asked to stay home as much as possible for much of the year so far, will now be allowed to meet outside in groups of up to six people, while outdoor sports including tennis and golf can resume; other parts of the U.K. are taking similar steps. However, people will still be encouraged to "stay local," and many establishments—including pubs—are still closed.
The situation is very different in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel is warning local leaders that she may take direct control of their states' pandemic efforts if the country's battle with the coronavirus continues to deteriorate, Bloomberg reports. "We can’t go on like this," Merkel said in an interview with a German TV station last night. "We meet every four weeks and then we just keep going the same way as before." As in the U.S., Germany's states typically have the power to set public health policy within their borders, but Merkel can take charge in emergencies. Germany is reporting a seven-day average of more than 16,000 new daily cases, up from approximately 7,500 in late February and about 800 last August.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 30.2 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 549,000 people have died. On March 28, there were 43,440 new cases and 506 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
Despite the progress in the U.S. mass vaccination effort, there are "concerning trends in the data," CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said during today's White House coronavirus briefing. She cited a 10% increase in the seven-day average of new cases over the past week compared to the prior week (it's currently at just under 60,000), as well as slight but alarming upticks in hospitalizations and deaths. "So I’m speaking today not necessarily as your CDC director—not only as your CDC director but as a wife, as a mother, as a daughter to ask you to just please hold on a little while longer," Walensky said in a plea to Americans to keep social distancing, masking up and so on. "I so badly want to be done. I know you all so badly want to be done. We are just almost there but not quite yet. And so I’m asking you to just hold on a little longer, to get vaccinated when you can so that all of those people that we all love will still be here when this pandemic ends."
Dr. Deborah Birx, formerly the Trump Administration's coronavirus response coordinator, believes that most of the nearly 550,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. could have been prevented if political leaders implemented restrictions and enforced social distancing and mask-wearing earlier in the pandemic. "I look at it this way: the first time we have an excuse," Birx says in a new CNN documentary that aired last night. "There were about a hundred thousand deaths that came from that original surge. All of the rest of them, in my mind, could have been mitigated or decreased substantially." Birx also said that President Trump called her directly after she shared a less-than-rosy assessment of the pandemic last August. "It was very uncomfortable, very direct and very difficult to hear," she said of the conversation. Birx and other Trump-era public health officials have been criticized for failing to speak up when the former President mischaracterized the pandemic, pushed unproven treatments or offered dangerous health advice.
All adults in six U.S. states—Kansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas—are eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine starting today, the New York Times reports. Other states, including California and Connecticut, have announced plans to follow suit in the coming weeks, while President Joe Biden has said that all adults in any state will be eligible by May 1.
The CDC has extended its evictions moratorium through June 30, the agency announced today. The moratorium was first issued in September of last year in order to prevent a recession-fueled homelessness crisis from contributing to viral spread. "Keeping people in their homes and out of crowded or congregate settings—like homeless shelters—by preventing evictions is a key step in helping to stop the spread of COVID-19," CDC Director Walensky said in a statement.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of March 29, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
The Problem With Vaccine Passports
The Biden Administration is working on smartphone-based "vaccine passports" that could allow inoculated people easier access to workplaces, sporting events and more, the Washington Post reports. But developing the technology presents privacy challenges, and the sheer number of similar efforts in the works—the White House counts at least 17—could prove confusing. Read more here.
Cuba Could Become a Vaccine Powerhouse
The Caribbean island nation of Cuba has not one but five coronavirus vaccines in the works, the Washington Post reports. If any are successfully developed, Havana could become a major supplier for ostracized countries around the world, like Venezuela and Iran, with whom it has diplomatic ties. Read more here.
Remote Work May Change Manhattan Forever
At least some of Manhattan's white-collar workers may begin returning to the city's massive office towers over the next few months. But many may stay at least partially remote for the foreseeable future, the New York Times reports, with profound implications for New York City's commuter-dependent economy. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson
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