It's the last news anyone wants to hear: one year after the United States was slammed with its first wave of COVID-19—which was followed by even worse second and third waves—public health experts are worried that the country is headed for a fourth major spike. During a White House coronavirus briefing yesterday, Rochelle Walensky, the new director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, begged Americans to keep following public health guidelines amid alarming upticks in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. "Right now, I'm scared," she said.
Scientists tracking the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. told me today that there's plenty to be worried about. Cases are rising across the country, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. At the same time, many governors are relaxing measures intended to limit the spread of the virus, such as mask mandates and caps on restaurant capacity. Furthermore, as vaccinations continue across the country, some people are getting more cavalier about mask wearing and social distancing, even though most Americans still haven't been inoculated. We're also in the middle of Passover and approaching Easter, and celebratory gatherings could result in further spread.
However, even if we're in the early days of a fourth wave, there's good reason to think this one might be less disastrous than the previous three. Dr. Mark Roberts, director of the University of Pittsburgh's Public Health Dynamics lab, points to the relatively small uptick in deaths as a sign that prioritizing high-risk people for vaccination may be resulting in fewer deaths even as cases increase (though deaths are a lagging indicator, so it may be too early to tell if this is truly the case). He adds that immunity from exposure among people who previously contracted the virus is likely working in conjunction with mass vaccination to limit viral spread.
But it's too soon to tell whether what we're seeing in the data will be a blip or a bomb, says Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. As Lessler points out, the U.S. is in a race to vaccinate huge numbers of people as quickly as possible before more contagious or deadly variants of the virus proliferate, and as states roll back mitigation measures.
"This is leading to huge uncertainty in how things are going to unfold in the coming weeks and months," Lessler says. "I would be surprised if we don't see at least one state with a significant resurgence, though I doubt it will happen everywhere."
What does all this mean for you and me? A fourth surge may be imminent, but the toll of this spike could be blunted by mass vaccination. Either way, the guidance remains the same. "If individuals and communities continue to exercise caution, we can prevent a major surge," says Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas at Austin's COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. "This means wearing face masks, taking sensible precautions—particularly around unvaccinated people—and isolating if we have symptoms or believe we may have been exposed to the virus." While no one person can stop COVID-19 from surging again, you can still take steps to protect yourself and the people around you.
VACCINE TRACKER
More than 189.4 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, of which 147.6 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. More than 28% of the overall U.S. population has received at least one dose, and about 16% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
Canadian regulators are recommending that patients under the age of 55 stop receiving AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine as a precautionary measure amid concerns about an abnormal blood condition seen among a small number of recipients in Europe, the CBC reports. Although no such cases have been reported in Canada, regulators there are investigating whether some people are at greater risk of blood clots from the shot. Some local German leaders also suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine in people under 60 due to similar concerns today, the New York Times reports.
A New York judge ruled yesterday that the state must offer the coronavirus vaccine to all prisoners immediately, calling the decision to leave incarcerated people out of the rollout "unfair and unjust," the New York Times reports. Justice Alison Y. Tuitt of the State Supreme Court said that it is irrational to distinguish between people in jails and prisons and other congregate facilities, like homeless shelters. "There is no acceptable excuse for this deliberate exclusion," she wrote in her ruling. Other states have also struggled with the political and logistical implications of vaccinating incarcerated people. Some, like Florida, have not offered the vaccine to people in prisons; others, including New Jersey, have vaccinated prisoners since late last year.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
Nearly 127.6 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and nearly 2.8 million people have died. On March 29, there were 401,946 new cases and 7,918 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2 million confirmed cases:
More than 20 world leaders, including the Presidents and Prime Ministers of South Africa, South Korea and Italy (as well as World Health Organization Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus), signed a joint op-ed today calling for the development of an international treaty to deal with future pandemics. The article, which was published in newspapers around the world, urged governments worldwide to "seize this opportunity and come together as a global community for peaceful cooperation that extends beyond this crisis."
Turkey is reinstating weekend lockdowns in the majority of its provinces amid a surge in coronavirus cases, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced yesterday, per the Associated Press. "The increase in the number of cases and patients as well as the increase in the number of deaths is forcing us to review the existing measures," Erdogan said, adding that there will be restrictions during Ramadan (which begins April 13), including bans on mass gatherings and on in-person restaurant service. Turkey has reported an average of nearly 30,000 daily new cases this week, about twice the number it reported two weeks ago.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. had recorded more than 30.3 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 550,000 people have died. On March 29, there were 68,648 new cases and 668 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
Vaccine eligibility is rapidly expanding in many states across the U.S.: Minnesota opened vaccination to anyone over the age of 16 today, Indiana and South Carolina are set to open vaccination eligibility on Wednesday, Connecticut and Montana on Thursday, and New Hampshire and Colorado on Friday, the AP reports. Despite expanded access in Minnesota, the Star Tribunereported that some people are still struggling to lock down appointments, signaling that supply has yet to match demand.
In California, public safety personnel, hospitals and grassroots organizations are stepping up to vaccinate seniors and other people who find it difficult or impossible to leave their home, the Los Angeles Times reports. While Johnson and Johnson's one-shot vaccine has been a boon for health care workers trying to reach the homebound, logistical obstacles (like finding parking) mean that it could take months to reach the majority of Los Angeles County's homebound population.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of March 30, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
China and Russia Fill Global Vaccine Shortages
China and Russia's vaccine programs have been criticized for their lack of transparency. But both countries have stepped up to fill supply shortages in less wealthy countries as Western leaders have concentrated on vaccinating their own populations, Yasmeen Serhan reports for The Atlantic. Read more here.
'Emotional Support' Chickens (And Other Pandemic Coping Mechanisms)
People have found creative ways to get through the pandemic, including dying their hair pink, keeping their Christmas tree up through springtime and making miniature scenes for mice, as the Washington Post highlights. Read more here.
More Evidence That Vaccines Are Safe for Pregnant People
New evidence shows that coronavirus vaccines are safe for pregnant people—and that they may help protect their babies as well, Katherine Harmon Courage reports for Vox. Read more here.
Correction:Yesterday's edition of The Coronavirus Brief misstated the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses Johnson & Johnson is supplying to the African Union. It is supplying up to 400 million doses, not up to 400 doses.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Tara Law and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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