May 1, 2021. That's the date by which every American adult will be eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine, U.S. President Joe Biden promised last night during a televised address on the anniversary of the pandemic.
July 4, 2021. That's the date by which Biden said the country should be "closer to normal," provided people get their shots and continue to practice masking and social distancing in the meantime.
What does it mean to be closer to normal? I explored that question about a month ago, for a story about how we can learn to live with COVID-19 even if we don't eliminate it completely. A lot has changed for the better since that story was published. The pace of vaccinations has picked up, cases and deaths have trended down and we have a third authorized vaccine in the U.S., with (hopefully) more on the way soon. But even back in early February, when the news wasn't quite so good, I was optimistic about the predictions experts gave me.
Many of them felt it was unlikely we would totally stamp out COVID-19 any time soon. There will always be people who choose not to or are unable to get vaccinated, which means the virus will likely circulate at low levels for the foreseeable future. But so does the flu, and so do many other diseases. We know how to coexist with viruses, and we can do the same with this one. Case clusters will pop up occasionally, which may sometimes trigger temporary, localized responses—but the possibility of harsh, sweeping lockdowns like those implemented at this time last year grows fainter with each vaccine administered. Our social lives and businesses and outside-the-home pastimes will come back, slowly but surely, even if COVID-19 isn't totally gone.
By Biden's definition, "closer to normal" may look like Independence Day barbecues with family and friends. According to recent U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance, it can look like fully vaccinated people getting together—indoors and unmasked—with their loved ones. In many places, it's beginning to look like schools and child care centers taking the precautions required to operate safely.
We aren't at the finish line yet, but it's in sight. Life will not magically return to normal on May 1; even once all adults are eligible for shots, it will take time to get one or two doses into people's arms. And even once that happens, we won't be totally done with COVID-19—especially if elected officials ease up on virus precautions before the data say it's safe to do so. But we will be closer to normal, and that's far better than life even just a few months ago.
More than 131 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this morning, of which 98.2 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. Approximately 19.4% of the overall U.S. population has received at least one dose, and about 10.2% of Americans have gotten both doses.
Another highly effective COVID-19 shot may be on the way, after vaccine maker Novavax said yesterday its shot is 96% effective at preventing symptomatic disease. The shot is also 86% effective against the B.1.1.7 strain of the virus, a variant first discovered in the U.K. that some people originally feared could evade vaccines. Those results were only reported via a company press release, and have not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal. Nonetheless, they're very encouraging—and yet another sign that we may be able to vaccinate our way out of the pandemic.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has not yet authorized the vaccine made by AstraZeneca-Oxford University. And yet, the New York Timesreports, millions of doses of the shot are sitting around in American manufacturing facilities, even as countries that have approved the shot beg to put them to immediate use. AstraZeneca has reportedly asked the Biden Administration to allow it to loan the doses to countries that have already approved the shot, but the request has thus far been denied, according to the Times.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
The Global Situation
More than 118.5 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 2.6 million people have died. On March 11, there were 463,778 new cases and 9,755 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here is every country with over 2 million confirmed cases:
Even as the world celebrates increasingly positive pandemic news, India is a reminder that the virus has not been vanquished. The South Asian country today reported its highest single-day case count since December—more than 23,000—in what may be a harbinger of a new surge there. Experts blamed a premature return to gatherings and relaxing of public health precautions, Al Jazeera reports.
The head of the International Olympic Committee said yesterday that it will pay for China to provide vaccines to any Olympian who needs one ahead of the scheduled games in Japan this summer and China next winter. The move comes amid a roiling debate over whether it's safe and sensible to hold the Olympics this year, especially given that host country Japan's vaccine rollout is still in its early stages.
Global law enforcement agency Interpol is tracking a "parallel pandemic" of vaccine-related crime, TIME's Simon Shuster reports. In some cases, according to Interpol, criminals are stealing real COVID-19 vaccines and selling them for profit. In others, groups are passing off fake vaccines as the real thing, potentially endangering public health. While Interpol said these efforts do not appear widespread enough to disrupt legitimate vaccine campaigns—which account for nearly all vaccines in circulation—the scale is still significant, comprising billions of dollars of profit for criminal groups.
The Situation in the U.S.
The U.S. recorded more than 29.2 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 530,000 people have died. On March 11, there were 49,356 new cases and 1,557 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
New jobless claims in the U.S. are nearing their lowest point ever during the pandemic, at 712,000 for the week ending March 6. That number, following the addition of almost 380,000 new jobs in February, is close to the pandemic-era-low of 695,000 reported in November 2020, but still far above the 2019 average of 218,000.
A New Jersey man is the first known person to seek compensation from the government for failed COVID-19 treatment, Reuters reports. Steve Cicala's wife died in the spring of 2020 after being treated with azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine, previously thought to be effective treatments for COVID-19. Cicala is not alleging wrongdoing on the part of the hospital, but is asking for more than $300,000 from a seldom-used government-run fund that compensates families for serious injuries or deaths caused by treatments or vaccines.
As TIME's Abigail Abrams reports, the White House has taken an important step toward serving people with disabilities during the pandemic. The Biden Administration has for the first time placed a disability policy director, Kimberly Knackstedt, on its Domestic Policy Council, which largely shapes its U.S. agenda. Many people with disabilities are at high risk of severe COVID-19 infections, and some of the thousands of people suffering from long-term symptoms of the virus may begin to identify as disabled—making Knackstedt's role all the more important.
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of March 12, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
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WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
A Pandemic's Cost, in Photos
In this poignant photo essay, TIME goes behind the scenes—into hospitals, schools, cemeteries, food banks and more—to illustrate the cost of one year of pandemic living. Read more here.
The Dark Side of Pandemic Pet Adoptions
As scores of people adopt animal companions during the pandemic, a thriving black market has emerged for pet thieves, reports TIME's Melissa Chan. Pets are disappearing from yards and cars, and some have even been stolen during home invasions. Read more here.
Was the CDC's Mask Guidance All Wrong?
Until recently, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that the best personal protective equipment available go to health care workers intubating COVID-19 patients, while all others could use simple surgical masks. But as Kaiser Health News reports, that advice may have been seriously misguided—and, perhaps, deadly. Read more here.
A Particular Hurt for Grandparents
We've all lost something due to the pandemic. But for grandparents, as the New York Times explores in this piece, the hurt has been on another level entirely. Read more here.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Jamie Ducharme and edited by Alex Fitzpatrick.
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