I don't know about you, but the optimism I've been feeling lately about the pandemic, at least here in the United States, is slowly but surely being replaced by an intractable sense of looming disaster as the Delta variant spreads.
After dipping into the threes and fours for most of June and July, the nationwide seven-day rolling average of new cases per capita is nearly back to six—still a pittance compared to the all-time high of 91.5 set in January of this year, but a disconcerting rise nonetheless.
What makes this latest uptick so frustrating is that, unlike during earlier increases, we now have an incredibly strong weapon in our fight against COVID-19: vaccines. Yet U.S. vaccine uptake has stalled, even though only about half the population is fully protected. The ramifications are clear: this new mini-spike in the nationwide data is being driven mostly by outbreaks in states with relatively low vaccination rates, like Arkansas (where just 35.1% of residents are fully vaccinated), Louisiana (35.9%) and Missouri (39.9%). I’ve heard doctor after doctor in those places share dispiriting stories about seriously ill unvaccinated patients—many of them young, and may have wrongly thought themselves safe from COVID's worst effects by virtue of their age—pouring into the emergency room in recent weeks.
It seems inevitable that the numbers will keep rising, though how high is anybody's guess—right now, looking at the data feels like watching freshly-lit embers burn in a bone dry forest, hoping they don't spark a massive blaze. What I'm particularly worried about is that, if these spikes become a proper wave, enforcing new containment measures may prove downright impossible. Americans had a tenuous relationship with public health guidelines at best over the past year, and asking them to mask up, socially distance and stay put once again probably won't fly (just take a look at the situation in Sydney, Australia, where the on-again, off-again lockdowns are enough to drive the sanest person mad).
The optimists' view—one held by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director Dr. Rochelle Walensky—is that the latest rise in cases may convince some vaccine-hesitant people to finally get the shot. If that happens at a wide enough scale, it could stave off a calamitous wave later this year. That could certainly happen, and I hope it does. My take is that it's looking every day like we're dooming ourselves to a tale of two Americas, with an ever-widening gulf between the vaccinated, who will largely be spared the worst of whatever happens later this year, and the unvaccinated, who will bear the brunt of it. That it doesn't have to be this way just makes it all the more tragic.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
About 388.7 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of this afternoon, of which some 336 million doses have been administered thus far, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 48.3% of Americans have been completely vaccinated.
More than 188.3 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and more than 4 million people have died. On July 14, there were 540,400 new cases and 8,695 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 3 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded nearly 34 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 608,100 people have died. On July 14, there were 31,845 new cases and 331 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of July 15, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
Weekly jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 360,000 for the week ending July 10, per the latest figures from the U.S. Department of Labor released this morning. That's a new pandemic-era low, suggesting the labor market is healing as vaccination continues and the economy normalizes. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims fell by 126,000 to 3.24 million. However, we're still a long way off from the pre-pandemic numbers—initial claims were in the low 200,000s just before the outbreak, while continuing claims were at about 1.7 million. Meanwhile, rising caseloads driven by the Delta variant put the recent gains at risk.
The pain of the pandemic era continues in other ways, too: U.S. overdose deaths rose to a record 93,000 last year, per CDC data out yesterday. Experts pin the catastrophic toll on a combination of factors, including virus-related lockdowns and layoffs, as well as the increasing prevalence of particularly dangerous drugs like fentanyl, the Associated Press reports.
France and Greece were rocked by protests yesterday after leaders in both countries issued new virus-related restrictions and vaccine mandates for medical workers, the Washington Post reports. French President Emmanuel Macron and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis both announced earlier this week that people in their respective countries would have to show proof of vaccination before entering venues like restaurants and bars, and that health care workers must be vaccinated over the coming weeks. Those demonstrating against the orders argue that they discriminate against those who don't wish to be vaccinated. “It’s totally arbitrary and wholly undemocratic," one protestor in France told Reuters.
Fort Rucker, a U.S. Army post in Alabama, has become the first military base in the continental U.S. to require service members to show proof of vaccination if they're not wearing a mask while on duty, the Washington Post reports. “Due to the rising rates in the counties around us and some on Fort Rucker, we’re now implementing [general order] number 12,” the base's commanding general said in a statement posted to Facebook. The order comes amid a spike in cases across Alabama, where only 33.4% of the population is fully vaccinated. Among the Army as a whole, about 70% of servicemembers have had at least one shot, per the Pentagon.
Haiti, which is in political turmoil following last week's assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, received half a million coronavirus vaccine doses from the U.S. yesterday, the Miami Herald reports. The doses are badly needed in the Caribbean nation, which is one of only five countries that has not yet inoculated a single resident. The Biden Administration will send "a significant amount of additional doses to Haiti soon," a White House official told McClatchy. The broader upheaval engulfing the country, however, will likely complicate the vaccine rollout there.
We already knew this summer's Olympic Games in Tokyo would look different than usual, given officials' recent decision to bar fans from attending many events. It turns out that the medal ceremonies after the competitions will be tweaked as well: all Olympic participants will wear masks during the ceremonies, and victorious athletes will put their medals around their own necks to avoid viral transmission, CNN reports.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
If you were forwarded this and want to sign up to receive it daily, click here.
Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
沒有留言:
張貼留言