The CDC Left Us Hanging—And Took a Big Risk in the Process
Three days after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued revised guidance calling for Americans in many parts of the country to once again mask up regardless of their vaccination status, it's finally becoming clear what led agency officials to come to that decision: the more transmissible Delta variant means "the war has changed," as an internal federal health document obtained by the Washington Post puts it.
The Post's reporting, published last night, helped shed light on one of the more confounding aspects of the CDC's announcement. When asked in a July 27 briefing why the agency was revising its guidance, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky alluded to new data suggesting that "in rare occasions, some vaccinated people infected with the Delta variant after vaccination may be contagious and spread the virus to others," as she put it. "This new science is worrisome and unfortunately warrants an update to our recommendations."
If Delta is making vaccinated people more contagious, it could help explain why this variant spreads so much faster than other versions (earlier research conducted before Delta arrived in the U.S. suggested that the vaccines, which were authorized based on their ability to prevent disease, were also pretty good at preventing infection). But the CDC took until today to publish the research underlying its communication decisions —which found that, among 469 cases identified earlier this month involving Mass. residents who traveled to an unnamed Barnstable County town on Cape Cod, nearly 75% occurred in vaccinated people. The Delta variant, meanwhile, was found in 90% of samples from 133 of the 469 cases, and similar viral loads were detected among both vaccinated and unvaccinated infected people.
"High viral loads suggest an increased risk of transmission and raised concern that, unlike with other variants, vaccinated people infected with Delta can transmit the virus," Walensky said in a statement emailed to reporters today. "This finding is concerning and was a pivotal discovery leading to CDC’s updated mask recommendation. The masking recommendation was updated to ensure the vaccinated public would not unknowingly transmit virus to others, including their unvaccinated or immunocompromised loved ones."
Why did the CDC issue its revised mask mandate before the data behind that decision was ready to be shared with all Americans? As one unnamed federal health official told the Post on condition of anonymity, "waiting even days to publish the data could result in needless suffering and as public health professionals we cannot accept that.”
But that thinking makes more sense in a make-believe world where everyone—or at least most people—listens to new CDC guidance right away. In reality, it takes a long time for social norms like masking behaviors to change. Yes, some tuned-in, extremely cautious people—like many of those reading this newsletter—will adhere to public health experts' advice right away, but many will not. (This is purely anecdotal, but I was in a Pennsylvania Wegman’s the day after the guidance was changed, and was the only shopper with a mask on.)
The CDC, already distrusted in many circles (particularly conservative ones), may have made a mistake by changing its masking guidance without showing its work. The agency essentially said "trust us on this one, guys," and for the many Americans sick and tired of pandemic life and who don't want to go back to the days of masking up despite the obvious threat Delta presents, that's just not going to cut it.
At least some public health experts are acknowledging as much. "PUBLISH ALL THE DATA NOW, @CDCgov @CDCDirector," epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding tweeted last night after the Post story was published, echoing the frustrations being aired across much of public health Twitter. "ALL OF IT."
Moreover, the CDC’s delay opened the door for a three-day disinformation fest. Unconfirmed rumors that the agency’s decision was based in part on a questionable study out of India spread far and wide on social media, amplified by right-wing news outlets. Many commentators glommed onto the study—which analyzed vaccines not in use in the U.S.—as a means of attacking the CDC.
Had the CDC waited until the data backing its revised guidance were ready for public release, it could've avoided this kind of—predictable—public health communications nightmare. Instead, the American public has been, for several critical days, left with scraps from anonymous sources published in top newspapers. Frankly, that is not good enough. I realize it's easy to play armchair CDC director, but as someone who's spent the last year as a public health communicator, I would have vastly preferred to have the relevant data available three days ago, so that we could better help you, and our other readers, understand the CDC's decision when it was first announced—and perhaps get more people on board with the changes our smartest scientists are recommending, given the current context, potentially saving lives in the process. Alas, that opportunity is lost.
TODAY'S CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
Over 399 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been shipped to various U.S. states as of yesterday afternoon, of which some 344.9 million doses had been administered, according to TIME's vaccine tracker. About 49.5% of Americans had been completely vaccinated.
More than 196.5 million people around the world had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 a.m. E.T. today, and nearly 4.2 million people have died. On July 29, there were 613,991 new cases and 11,005 new deaths confirmed globally.
Here's how the world as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
And here's every country that has reported over 3 million cases:
The U.S. had recorded more than 34.7 million coronavirus cases as of 1 a.m. E.T. today. More than 612,100 people have died. On July 29, there were 78,170 new cases and 321 new deaths confirmed in the U.S.
Here's how the country as a whole is currently trending:
Here's where daily cases have risen or fallen over the last 14 days, shown in confirmed cases per 100,000 residents:
All numbers unless otherwise specified are from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, and are accurate as of July 30, 1 a.m. E.T. To see larger, interactive versions of these maps and charts, click here.
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW
As part of a renewed vaccination push, U.S. President Joe Biden announced yesterday that he has ordered the Pentagon to develop a plan for inoculating as many of those in the military as possible. "Our men and women in uniform, who protect this country from grave threats, should be protected as much as possible from getting COVID-19,” Biden said during a White House speech. “I think this is particularly important because our troops serve in places throughout the world … where vaccination rates are low and disease is prevalent.” Per military news site Task & Purpose, the Navy has the highest active duty vaccination rate among U.S. military branches at 72%, followed by the Army (62%), Marines (59%), and Air Force/Space Force (54%).
Biden is also pushing states, cities and other local governments to offer $100 in cash to those getting vaccinated for the first time. Funding for such incentives can come from the $350 billion in relief money included in the economic stimulus package Congress passed in March, the U.S. Treasury Department said yesterday. However, it's unclear if similar incentive programs enacted by cities and states earlier in the rollout had a material or sustained impact on vaccine uptake rates.
Governor Greg Abbott issued an order yesterday to block Texas public schools from requiring students and staff to mask up. The move comes just a few days after the CDC recommended that all of those in K-12 schools wear a mask regardless of their vaccination status. "[Texans] have the individual right and responsibility to decide for themselves and their children whether they will wear masks," reads a statement from Abbott, a Republican. Florida governor Ron DeSantis, also a Republican, may follow suit; some Florida school districts have already issued mask mandates despite DeSantis's opposition to them, setting up a potential battle between district officials and the governor's office.
A Baltimore pharmaceutical plant plagued by production errors will be allowed to resume producing a key element of the Janssen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine, CNN reports. Work at the Emergent BioSolutions facility was halted in April after 15 million vaccine doses made there had to be scrapped. A Biden Administration official told CNN that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will examine individual batches produced at the plant before they're shipped and administered.
Online retail behemoth Amazon is not exactly hurting for revenue—it made $113.08 billion in the most recent quarter, a 27% quarter-over-quarter spike as shoppers turned to the house that Bezos built for their needs and wants during the pandemic. But that's actually less than the $115 billion or so analysts expected, and the company now says it'll probably make only—"only"—somewhere between $106 and $112 billion in revenue this current quarter, also less than expected. Those results and that forecast sent the company's stock down around 7% in after-hours trading yesterday; investors now fear Amazon may not perform quite as insanely well in a post-pandemic world.
While the pandemic didn't rob the world of the Olympics, it robbed Olympic athletes of their chance to compete for gold and glory before tens of thousands of spectators from around the world—and, more importantly to many competitors, before their families. As my colleague Melissa Locker reports, while they can't be in Tokyo in person, the families of Olympic athletes are turning to "watch parties" to see their daughters, sons, brothers, sisters and so on try their best to land on the podium.
Thanks for reading. We hope you find the Coronavirus Brief newsletter to be a helpful tool to navigate this very complex situation, and welcome feedback at coronavirus.brief@time.com. If you have specific questions you'd like us to answer, please send them to covidquestions@time.com.
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Today's newsletter was written by Alex Fitzpatrick and edited by Elijah Wolfson.
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